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SUPERINTENDENT’S REPORT ON ENROLLMENT AND CAPACITY

SUPERINTENDENT’S REPORT ON ENROLLMENT AND CAPACITY. OCTOBER 22, 2007. BOARD OF EDUCATION OF HARFORD COUNTY. Jacqueline C. Haas, Ed.D., Superintendent of Schools Mr. Thomas L. Fidler, President, Board of Education. REVIEW OF POLICY. I. General Provisions :

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SUPERINTENDENT’S REPORT ON ENROLLMENT AND CAPACITY

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  1. SUPERINTENDENT’S REPORT ON ENROLLMENT AND CAPACITY OCTOBER 22, 2007 BOARD OF EDUCATION OF HARFORD COUNTY Jacqueline C. Haas, Ed.D., Superintendent of Schools Mr. Thomas L. Fidler, President, Board of Education

  2. REVIEW OF POLICY I. General Provisions: • The Harford County Board of Education believes that it is in the best interest of students for the system to balance enrollments with capacities in order to: assure the quality of educational experiences; provide consistency in curriculum, instruction, and programs; maintain safe schools and promote the uniform and efficient use of school facilities and resources. With the advice of the Superintendent, the Board of Education shall annually review options for better matching school enrollments with the established state-rated school capacities. • EACH YEAR THE SUPERINTENDENT WILL PREPARE A REPORT THAT CONTAINS AN ANALYSIS OF ENROLLMENTS RELATIVE TO STATE-RATED CAPACITIES. • THE REPORT WILL CONTAIN RECOMMENDATIONS AND ALTERNATIVES, WITH RATIONALES, FOR ADDRESSING IMBALANCES; AND THE REPORT WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE BOARD OF EDUCATION IN OCTOBER. The Board of Education may direct the Superintendent to develop additional information and/or develop other alternatives for its consideration, or the Board of Education may propose other specific alternatives.

  3. METHODOLOGY • 9/30/2007ELEMENTARYENROLLMENT AND PROJECTIONS BASED ON ACTUAL NUMBER OF STUDENTS ATTENDING. • 9/30/2007SECONDARYENROLLMENT AND PROJECTIONS BASED ON FIRST YEAR OF IMPLEMENTATION OF COMPREHENSIVE SECONDARY REDISTRICTING. • CAPACITIES ARE IN ACCORDANCE WITH REVISED (PROPOSED) SRC CALCULATIONS. • PROJECTIONS DEVELOPED BASED ON COHORT SURVIVAL METHOD; GRADE SUCCESSION RATIOS DETERMINED BY HISTORICAL TRENDS. • ASSISTED BY HARFORD COUNTY PLANNINIG AND ZONING STAFF. • RESIDENTIAL SUBDIVISION DATA CONSIDERED, BUT NOT DIRECTLY APPLIED; INCLUDED CONSIDERATION OF LAND INVENTORY REMAINING IN EACH SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREA. • CURRENT PROJECTIONS DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR IMPENDING BRAC INITIATIVE IMPACT (estimated 3,400 additional students by 2017).

  4. 9/30/07 ACTUAL ENROLLMENT TOTAL ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2007: 39,183 (-399) TOTAL ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2006:39,582 ES ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2007: 17,748 (-185) ES ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2006:17,933 MS ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2007: 9,080 (-8) MS ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2006:9,088 HS ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2007: 12,196 (-205) HS ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2006:12,401

  5. 9/30/2007 ENROLLMENT vs. 9/30/06 PROJECTIONS TOTAL ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2007: 39,183 (-304) PROJECTED ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2006: 39,487 ES ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2007: 17,748 (-357) PROJECTED ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2006: 18,105 MS ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2007: 9,080 (-43) PROJECTED ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2006: 9,037 HS ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2007: 12,196 (-1) PROJECTED ENROLLMENT ON 9/30/2006: 12,195

  6. HISTORICAL ACTUAL ENROLLMENT 1988 - 2007

  7. ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENT & PROJECTIONS 9/30/07 TO 9/30/15SEEATTACHEDSHEETS

  8. ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS RANKED FROM HIGHEST % CAPACITY TO LOWEST % CAPACITY

  9. ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENT ASSUMPTIONS • DECREASE IN ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENT FOLLOWS PAST TREND TOWARD FLATTENING ENROLLMENTS • SOME CURRENT DECREASES COULD BE DUE TO ABERRATION AT THE K-1 GRADES • 10 OF 32 SCHOOLS STILL OVER 100% CAPACITY, 22 OF 32 OVER 90% CAPACITY • ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENT WILL SHOW A GRADUAL 10% TO 13% GROWTH BY 2014

  10. SECONDARY ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTIONS 9/30/07 TO 9/30/15 SEEATTACHEDSHEETS

  11. SECONDARY SCHOOLS RANKED FROM HIGHEST % CAPACITY TO LOWEST % CAPACITY MIDDLE SCHOOLS HIGH SCHOOLS

  12. SECONDARY ENROLLMENT ASSUMPTIONS • DECREASE IN SOME SECONDARY SCHOOLS ENROLLMENT FOLLOWS PAST TREND • SOME CURRENT DECREASES COULD BE DUE TO LARGE NUMBER OF WITHDRAWALS (SEE NEXT) • 1 OF 8 MIDDLE SCHOOLS STILL OVER 100% CAPACITY • 3 OF 10 HIGH SCHOOLS STILL OVER 100% CAPACITY • IMPACT OF ADDITIONAL HIGH SCHOOL CAPACITY AT NHHS & PMMS/HS, COMBINED WITH COMPREHENSIVE REDISTRICTING IN 2007, WILL HAVE DRAMATIC POSITIVE EFFECT ON SECONDARY CAPACITY IN NEXT 3 YEARS

  13. Students (Grades 8 – 11) Not Continuing in HCPS for 2007-08

  14. REVIEW OF 2007-08 INITIATIVES

  15. RECOMMENDED OPTIONS FOR BALANCING ENROLLMENT WITH CAPACITY IN THE IDENTIFIED SCHOOLS • RELOCATABLE CLASSROOMS • BOUNDARY EXCEPTIONS • FLUID PLACEMENT OF STUDENTS • ADDITIONS (PREVIOUSLY APPROVED) • NEW SCHOOL CONSTRUCTION • RELOCATION OF PROGRAMS • ATTENDANCE AREA BOUNDARY ADJUSTMENTS

  16. ELEMENTARY SCHOOL INITIATIVES FOR 2008 - 2009

  17. HIGH SCHOOL INITIATIVES FOR 2008 - 2009

  18. DIRECTION FROM THE BOARD OF EDUCATION??

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