1 / 16

Implementation of Hron Model to Myjava & Upper Tiber River Basin

Monitoring, F orecasting and B est P ractices for FLOOD Mitigation & Prevention in the CADSES Region PGA Meeting - Sofia, Bulgaria 9-11 July 2007. Implementation of Hron Model to Myjava & Upper Tiber River Basin. Marcel Zvolenský 1 , Luca Brocca 2 , Ján Novák 1.

hani
Download Presentation

Implementation of Hron Model to Myjava & Upper Tiber River Basin

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Monitoring, Forecasting and Best Practices for FLOOD Mitigation & Prevention in the CADSES Region PGA Meeting - Sofia, Bulgaria 9-11 July 2007 Implementation of Hron Modelto Myjava & Upper Tiber River Basin Marcel Zvolenský1, Luca Brocca2, Ján Novák1 1 Slovenský hydrometeorologický ústav 2 Instituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica

  2. Monitoring, Forecasting and Best Practices for FLOOD Mitigation & Prevention in the CADSES Region PGA Meeting - Sofia, Bulgaria 9-11 July 2007 Mission of SHMÚ in Floodmed project • Realisation of flood forecasting and warning system • Selection and comparison of rainfall-runoff models and examination of the suitability for CADSES region (models’ calibration) • Development of methodology for automatic linking of meteorological observations & forecasts with hydrological observations in order to obtain the hydrological forecast computed by rainfall-runoffmodel • Monitoring system as a base for hydrology specialists responsible for puplication of warning

  3. Monitoring, Forecasting and Best Practices for FLOOD Mitigation & Prevention in the CADSES Region PGA Meeting - Sofia, Bulgaria 9-11 July 2007 Rainfall-Runoff Model • water balance, conceptual (HBV type) • semi-distributed (elevation zones) • 3 sub-routines (snow, soil, runoff), 15 parameters • hourly time step (continuous data required) • Inputs for Calibration (catchment averages): • hourly: precipitation (totals), air temperature, discharge • monthly long-term mean: potential evapotranspiration, airtemperature • Outputs: • hourly discharge, soil moisture index, snow water equivalent ...

  4. Monitoring, Forecasting and Best Practices for FLOOD Mitigation & Prevention in the CADSES Region PGA Meeting - Sofia, Bulgaria 9-11 July 2007 Rainfall-Runoff Model - Scheme P – precipitation (snowmelt water) (mm) T – air temperature (°C) TT – snowmelt threshold temperature (°C) AET - actual evapotranspiration (mm) FC – field capacity (mm) SMI – soil moisture index (mm) Emp – empirical prameter for evapotranspiration LPE – limit for evapotranspiration UZL – upper reservoir limit (mm) SUZ – storage in upper reservoir (mm) SLZ – storage in lower reservoir (mm) RC – groundwater recharge (mm) PER – percolation rate (mm/day) MB – runoff retardation (day) Q0 – surface runoff (mm) Q1 – subsurface runoff (mm) Q2 – base runoff (mm). Q – total runoff N – number of reservoirs k - storage delay coefficient (hour)

  5. Ponte Felcino Roma Monitoring, Forecasting and Best Practices for FLOOD Mitigation & Prevention in the CADSES Region PGA Meeting - Sofia, Bulgaria 9-11 July 2007 Upper Tiber River Basin • Real time gauges: 10 discharge, 11 precipitation • Geological structure: impervious rock (clay, silt) • Location: central Italy • Basin area: 2 000 km2 • (whole Tiber basin 17 000 km2) • Elevation: 200 – 1500 m a.s.l. • Comment: • Flash floods • Practically no snow regime

  6. Scatterplots of observed and simuleted discharges (model Hron) Nash-Sutcliffe optimization function Lupo (Cerfone) Migianella (Niccone) Serrapartucci (Assino) ME=0.83 ME=0.82 ME=0.79 Calibration (1996) ME=0.83 ME=0. 67 ME=0.73 Validation (1997)

  7. Monitoring, Forecasting and Best Practices for FLOOD Mitigation & Prevention in the CADSES Region PGA Meeting - Sofia, Bulgaria 9-11 July 2007 Simulation of selected hydrological components (model: Hron, basin: Cerfone, period: 1996)

  8. Monitoring, Forecasting and Best Practices for FLOOD Mitigation & Prevention in the CADSES Region PGA Meeting - Sofia, Bulgaria 9-11 July 2007 Simulation of selected hydrological components (model: Hron, basin: Cerfone, period: 1997)

  9. Monitoring, Forecasting and Best Practices for FLOOD Mitigation & Prevention in the CADSES Region PGA Meeting - Sofia, Bulgaria 9-11 July 2007 Simulation of selected hydrological components (model: Hron, basin: Niccone, period: 1996)

  10. Monitoring, Forecasting and Best Practices for FLOOD Mitigation & Prevention in the CADSES Region PGA Meeting - Sofia, Bulgaria 9-11 July 2007 Simulation of selected hydrological components (model: Hron, basin: Niccone, period: 1997)

  11. Monitoring, Forecasting and Best Practices for FLOOD Mitigation & Prevention in the CADSES Region PGA Meeting - Sofia, Bulgaria 9-11 July 2007 Simulation of selected hydrological components (model: Hron, basin: Assino, period: 1996)

  12. Monitoring, Forecasting and Best Practices for FLOOD Mitigation & Prevention in the CADSES Region PGA Meeting - Sofia, Bulgaria 9-11 July 2007 Simulation of selected hydrological components (model: Hron, basin: Assino, period: 1997)

  13. Monitoring, Forecasting and Best Practices for FLOOD Mitigation & Prevention in the CADSES Region PGA Meeting - Sofia, Bulgaria 9-11 July 2007 Myjava River Basin • Real time gauges: 4 discharge, 2 precipitation • Geological structure: impervious rock (clay, silt) • Location: western Slovakia • Basin area: 644 km2 • Elevation: 100 – 900 m a.s.l. • Comment: • Flash floods, snow melting floods

  14. Monitoring, Forecasting and Best Practices for FLOOD Mitigation & Prevention in the CADSES Region PGA Meeting - Sofia, Bulgaria 9-11 July 2007 Comparison of Rainfall-Runoff Models 5020 – Myjava (Myjava) 5022 - Jablonica (Myjava) ME=0.89 ME=0.88 ME=0.80 ME=0.62 Scatterplots of observed and simulated dischargesby Hron and Nam (Mike) rainfall-runoff models 5025 - Sobotište (Teplica) 5030 - Šaštín-Stráže (Myjava) Nash-Sutcliffe optimization function ME=0.91 ME=0.61 ME=0.71 ME=0.73 Calibration (06.2005-09.2007)

  15. Monitoring, Forecasting and Best Practices for FLOOD Mitigation & Prevention in the CADSES Region PGA Meeting - Sofia, Bulgaria 9-11 July 2007 Simulation of selected hydrological components (model: Hron, basin: Myjava)

  16. Monitoring, Forecasting and Best Practices for FLOOD Mitigation & Prevention in the CADSES Region PGA Meeting - Sofia, Bulgaria 9-11 July 2007 Conclusion Simulations of Myjava and upper Tiber basins can be evaluated as successful Models Hron and Nam (Mike) achieved similar results comparing discharge simulations (overestimate low, underesimate high discharges) If other hydrological regime data (SWE, SMI...) are available, calibration could be evaluated also to these data Most significant factor for simulation is data (precipitation) quality and length of time period

More Related