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Peak oil, climate change and transition

Peak oil, climate change and transition. CAT : 30-Aug-08 Ben Brangwyn Transition Network Transition Town Totnes. Agenda. Peak Oil and its effects Climate Change PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” Responses at different levels global, national, local, personal What is a transition town

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Peak oil, climate change and transition

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  1. Peak oil, climate change and transition CAT : 30-Aug-08 Ben Brangwyn Transition Network Transition Town Totnes

  2. Agenda • Peak Oil and its effects • Climate Change • PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” • Responses at different levels • global, national, local, personal • What is a transition town • Examples and achievements so far • Q&A discussion • RESILIENCE

  3. Peak Oil • we’ll never “run out” of oil • we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil • oil underpins • industrial development • agriculture • economics • population • about ½ way through it… • it’s going to decline

  4. Peak Oil – a theory? • 98 oil producers

  5. Peak Oil – a theory? • Not a theory for these 64 post peak producers

  6. Peak Oil – discovery • US discovery peaked in 1930s • production peaked in 1971 • UK discovery peaked in 1975 • production peaked in 1999 • world discovery peaked in 1960s • production will peak in 20??

  7. Peak Oil – official numbers • EIA - Energy Information Administration • IEA - International Energy Agency

  8. Peak gas for UK • Source – National Grid

  9. UK Gov’t assumptions re oil price (2008) “Middle” Scenario “High-High” Scenario http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file46071.pdf

  10. Peak Oil vs Peak Exports • Oil producers getting richer • Developing their own economies • Middle East growth: 5-6% pa • Russia growth: 7% pa • Increasing their domestic consumption of oil • fuelled by subsidised prices • Less available for countriesthey export to. Like us …

  11. Peak Oil – what’s it like? • terminal decline • demand destruction • examples: • 1990s: North Korea • 1990s: Cuba • 2000: UK fuel crisis • Now: Poor countries

  12. Climate Change – the end of the debate The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states: • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal • Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations Upsala Glacier, Argentina

  13. Climate Change – the start of the feedbacks…

  14. Peak Oil & Climate Change PLANNED RELOCALISATION • local resilience • carbon reduction • consume closer to home • produce closer to home • play closer to home • decentralised energy infrastructure • the Great Reskilling • localised food • energy descent plans • local medicinal capacity • local currencies CLIMATE CHANGE (a la Stern et al.) • climate engineering • carbon capture and storage • tree-based carbon offsets • international emissions trading • climate adaptation • improved transportation logistics • nuclear power PEAK OIL (a la Hirsch et al.) • coal to liquids • gas to liquids • relaxed drilling regulations • massively scaled biofuels • tar sands and non-conventional oils • resource nationalism and stockpiling

  15. What can be done? • Global • Oil Depletion Protocol • Contraction and Convergence • Kyoto • National • TEQs, Cap & Share (energy rationing) • Community • Transition Towns, cities, villages, rural • Personal • “The work that reconnects” • self directed re-education • getting Gaia’ed

  16. Peak oil, climate change, food and the Scottish parliament • Unanimously passed motion • “…Parliament expresses its concern at the potential for global food shortages; … food price inflation now exceeding 6%; calls on the Scottish Government, Her Majesty’s Government, the European Union and other relevant bodies to … seek solutions that take account of the growing pressures on agriculture from both climate change and the rush to biofuels as well as the peak in oil production … ensuring the long-term capacity and capability of our food supply; … encourage the development of local supply chains through public procurement, address the imbalance in power between the big supermarkets and our food producers....” (June 2008)

  17. Transition, Peak oil, climate change, and Somerset CC • acknowledges the work done by communities in Somerset on Transition Towns and that the independence of the Transition Movement is key to its grass roots appeal. • fully endorses the Transition Town Movement and subscribes to the principles and ethos of the organisation's goals to reduce dependence on fuel oil and create more sustainable communities. • commits to providing support and assistance to all towns in Somerset that wish to join this initiative to help them achieve the goals they set for themselves as local communities. • therefore, requests the Scrutiny and Executive Committees to consider through the council's strategic planning process; • allocating funds to assist in achieving the outcomes of the Transition Towns • requiring all directorates to support Transition Initiatives • seeks to become the first Transition Authority in the UK. • agrees to undertake a review of its budgets and services to reduce dependence on fuel oil and produce an energy descent action plan in line with the principles of the Transition Initiative. (July 2008)

  18. Can we respond? • Going up the energy slope, we used • ingenuity • creativity • adaptability • cooperation • Going back down… • if we’re early enough • if we’re cooperative • the future could be a whole lot better…

  19. What’s stopping us? (1) • Dominant myths of today • Things are getting better • Economic growth is good • We must keep shopping • Technology will solve all our problems • There is no alternative • You can’t stop progress • Living standards are rising • Humans are selfish and greedy by nature • The market will solve it • We’re all doomed…

  20. Techno-Fantasy Where are we going? Peak Energy? Green-Tech Stability • Energy use • Resource use • Environmental degradation • Pollution Industrial Ascent Creative Descent (Permaculture) Earth stewardship Post Mad Max Collapse Pre-industrial culture Historical Time Industrial Revolution Great Grand Children Future Time BabyBoom Agriculture 10.000yrsBP

  21. Changing the myth from…

  22. Changing the myth to…

  23. What’s stopping us? (2) • Cognitive Load Theory (fruit salad experiment) • Short term vs long term thinking • rational vs emotional, neocortex vs mammalian vs reptilian • Belief in authority figures • electrocution experiment - 65% gave lethal dose • obedient children survive • Sunk cost, or investment in the present • “it’s difficult convincing a person of something when his job depends on him not believing it” • Optimism • an optimistic outlook is neurochemically self-fulfilling

  24. Who’s doing creative, orderly energy descent? (1) Official Transition Initiatives • Totnes • Penwith (Cornwall) • Kinsale • Ivybridge • Falmouth • Moretonhampstead • Lewes • Stroud • Ashburton • Ottery St Mary • Bristol • Brixton • Forest Row • Mayfield • Glastonbury • Forest of Dean • Lostwithiel • Nottingham • Wrington • Brighton&Hove • Portobello (Edinburgh) • Market Harborough • Sunshine Coast, Oz • West Kirby • Llandeilo • Bro Ddyfi • Whitstable • Marsden&Slaithwaite

  25. Who’s doing creative, orderly energy descent? (2) Official Transition Initiatives • Frome • Brampton • Isle of Wight • Waiheke Island (NZ) • Orewa (NZ) • Dunbar • Rhayader • Seaton • Bath • Exeter • Isle of Man • Canterbury • Kapiti (NZ) • Biggar • Presteigne • Wolverton • Leicester • Holywood • Westcliffe-on-Sea • Isle of Scilly • Liverpool South • Norwich • Tring • Crediton • Boulder, CO (USA) • Howe • Lampeter • South Pemberton

  26. And who’s mulling it over? 700+ “mullers” • Uruguay • Argentina • Belgium • Chile • Czech Republic • Netherlands • Switzerland • Brazil • China • Japan • Poland • UK • Ireland • USA • Spain • Italy • New Zealand • Australia • France • Israel • Canada • Mexico • Norway • South Africa • Sweden

  27. How are they organising? Transition Model • Understanding: • PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” • Adaptability, creative • NOW • 7 Buts • 12 Steps • Transition Network

  28. Transition Model – 7 “buts” (1) • we don’t have funding • “they” won’t let us • no enemies… apparently • turf wars with other green groups

  29. Transition Model – 7 “buts” (2) • no one cares about the environment • it’s too late anyway • I don’t have the right qualifications • I don’t have the energy to be doing that

  30. Transition Model - Step 1 • Set Up a Steering Group and Design Its Demise from the Outset • atrophy • personal agendas • humility • stages 2-5 • reforms from subgroups

  31. Transition Model - Step 2 • Awareness raising • allies and networks • prepare community • movies • talks • events

  32. Transition Model - Step 3 • Lay the foundations • other groups • existing projects • official bodies • businesses • collaboration

  33. Transition Model - Step 4 • Organise a Great Unleashing • coming of age • powerful, passionate, informative, inspirational • timing • content • making connections

  34. Transition Model - Step 5 • Form “working groups” • starting new groups • bringing in existing groups • guidelines • training • working groups and the steering group

  35. Transition Model - Step 6 • Use “Open Space” • shouldn’t work! • one long coffee break • World Café • Harrison Owen - Open Space Technology: A User’s Guide • Peggy Holman and Tom Devane’ - The Change Handbook: Group Methods for Shaping the Future

  36. Transition Model - Step 7 • Develop visible practical manifestations of your project • not a talking shop • chose carefully • lure in fence-sitters • team building potential • getting dirt under your fingernails

  37. Transition Model - Step 8 • Facilitate the Great Reskilling • Grandma, what was it like when you were a kid? • repairing, cooking, fixing bikes, natural building, loft insulation, dyeing, herbal walks, gardening, basic home energy efficiency, making sour doughs, practical food growing (the list is endless…) • eg WWOOFing

  38. Transition Model - Step 9 • Build bridges to Local Government • becomes crucial • don’t wait too long… • open door • Community Development Plan • elections…!

  39. Transition Model - Step 10 • Honour the Elders • elders as a community resource • 1930 to 1960 – moving from oil scarcity to abundance • oral history • community infrastructure • not about going backwards

  40. Transition Model - Step 11 • Let it go where it wants to go… • focus on the questions • unleash the community • any sense of control is illusory

  41. Transition Model - Step 12 • Produce and start to implement the Energy Descent Action Plan • assess current situation • create 15-20 year vision for all key areas • integrate with community plan if possible • identify steps needed to get there • start the work

  42. What have they achieved so far…? (1) Lewes • school workshops • grow your own food courses • rug making course • mending course • Lewes non-plastic bag • library books on sustainability • many events, talks and films Penwith • many films and talks • food and farming day with Soil Association • reskilling – composting toilets and reedbeds Totnes • 8 films, 11 talks, 7 events • 10-week “skilling up for powerdown” course • seed sharing days • oil vulnerability auditing • Estates in Transition • local food directory • local currency (phase 2) • oral history archives • nut tree capital of Britain • transition stories • lobbying (food and sustainable building regs) • community plan engagement • Totnes Renewable Energy Company

  43. What have they achieved so far…? (2) Brixton • greenmapping / urban agriculture project • permaculture design course • films and talks • presenting to school boards on peak oil and climate change • urban food growers network day Bristol • many films, talks and events • transition training 2-day course • city orchard (central buying of trees for productive planting by individual homeowners • guerilla gardening • photo exhibition and competition of “living more, using less” Stroud • CSA, local food festival • tool share • textile courses, visits to hemp manufacturers, fashion show • planning Stroud Hemporium • Heinberg meeting with council • Transition “think tank” with local council • many events and talks

  44. Our choice… • We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it.

  45. Transition Initiatives Thank you Ben Brangwyn

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