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Global Energy Transitions: Fossil Fuels to Renewables and LNG

This comprehensive study details the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources globally. It includes data on the shares of fossil fuels, hydro, nuclear, wind, solar, and biofuels in energy consumption over the years. The trajectory of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from scientific breakthrough to commercialization is also explored. Insights into electric vehicle market shares, Tesla's performance, and challenges in integrating wind and solar energy are provided. The text delves into the real costs of intermittent energy generation, storage solutions, and the long road ahead for decarbonization efforts. Additionally, advancements in electric and hybrid ships, biojet fuel production challenges, and innovative projects like Tres Amigas electric superstation are highlighted.

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Global Energy Transitions: Fossil Fuels to Renewables and LNG

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  1. ENERGY TRANSITIONS Vaclav Smil 2017

  2. Shares of fossil fuels (%) in global primary energy consumption (UN conversions, all non-thermal electricity 1 kWh=3.6 MJ; calculated from UN and BP data) Year Fossil fuels Hydro Nuclear Wind and solar Modern biofuels 1950 98.4 1.6 - 0.6 196097.8 2.2 - 0.8 197097.0 2.6 0.4 - 2.4 198094.6 2.43.0 - 3.3 199091.3 2.56.2 - 1.5 89.8 2.87.1 + 0.3 201090.1 2.8 5.80.31.0 + 0.2 201690.3 2.7 5.10.91.0

  3. Global shares of electricity generation (%; calculated from UN and BP data) Year Fossil fuels Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar 1950 63.7 36.3 1960 69.9 30.0 0.1 1970 78.6 20.0 1.4 1980 73.9 18.37.8 1990 64.9 18.216.9 0.0 2000 65.8 17.2 16.80.2 2010 69.3 16.1 12.9 1.6 0.1 2016 68.1 16.210.53.91.3

  4. Joule Linde Thompson 43 years Scientific Air breakthrough liquifaction in liquifaction patent of gases Cabot 44 years First LNG First trial shipping LNG delivery patent Methane Princess Competitive LNG trade Methane Progress Very large LNG tankers 46 years First commercial LNG accounts for LNG deliveries about 10% of all natural gas trade 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 LNG trajectory from scientific breakthrough to large-scale commercialization

  5. Thomas Edison with his favorite car in 1905

  6. Market share (%) of electric cars in 2015 • France 1.20 • China 0.84 • Germany 0.70 • USA 0.66 • Canada 0.33 Nissan Leaf

  7. Tesla • The first tested Tesla car was so good it broke CR’s ratings system, but Tesla ranked 25th out of 29 auto brands in 2016 Annual Auto Reliability Survey. • Consumer Reports October 2016 • For the Tesla Model X, the score dropped to 56 from 58, moving it to near the bottom of the luxury midsized SUV category. • Consumer Reports April 2017 Another cult phenomenon (not that bad as terraforming Mars by 2025 or super-cheap hyperloop by 2017) temporarily sustained by massive financial losses

  8. Years to reach supply milestones after reaching 5% of the total energy supply

  9. ELECTRICITY Capacity factors (%) wind solar US 35 27 EU 22 11 China 18 15 Japan 20 12 nuclear > 90 coal > 50 >60 natural gas (CCGT) > 50 Wind and PV are easy . . . up to a point and always dependingon specific circumstances

  10. Wind and PV constraints High shares easy High shares difficult Japan PV (Tokyo 1,881 sunny hours,197 sunny days, monsoon, typhoons) US wind and PV (no national grid) Arizona PV (Phoenix 4,041 sunny hours, 296 sunny days) Denmark wind (interconnections)

  11. Tres Amigas: late, much smaller, delayed . . . Tres Amigas LLC is downsizing plans for an electric superstation centered in New Mexico . . . The refined strategy . . . includes a link between the nation's Eastern and Western grids using a capacity of around 200 MW(original plans were to move eventually up to 20 GW!!!). Tres Amigas also may pursue a tie to Texas' main power grid, but it's not a priority right now. Although the company three years ago announced a 2016 completion date, it now expects the finished project to emerge in another three to five years. Tres Amigas website 2017

  12. REAL COSTS OF INTERMITTENT GENERATION US average construction costs 2016 $/kWi PV 2,921 wind 1,661 biomass 1,531 natural gas 696 storage 864 The cost of system back-up is NOT included in these levelized costs; with more PV and wind renewable shadow costs escalate because a full-sized system of on-demand power or oversized seasonal storage (does not exist now) are needed to cover multiple days and weeks of limited or no flows

  13. Storage for all-renewable systems By 2021 the largest announced storage system (more than 18,000 Li-ion batteries) will be in Long Beach for Southern California Edison: it will be capable of running at 100 MW for 4 hours. But 400MWh is still three orders of magnitude lower than what a large Asian city would need in just one day if deprived of its intermittent supply Tokyo at 25 GW for just one day under typhoon = 600 GWh 600 GWh/400 MWh = 1,500

  14. Cost of Germany’sEnergiewende:Doubling the generating capacity Fossil-fuelled capacity actually slightly up Renewable capacity matching it

  15. Fuel and non-fuel uses: difficult decarbonization World 20% of all fuels converted to electricity 26% of final use for transportation 34% households, services 9% non-energy uses USA 39% of all fuels converted to electricity 39% of final use for transportation 28% households, services 6% non-energy uses

  16. VERY LONG WAY TO GO . . . But builders and operators are starting to turn to electric and hybrid ships as an alternative. Norwegian cruise line Hurtigruten is investing in ships with a hybrid engine developed by Rolls Royce that aim to offer quieter sailing through tour routes in the Arctic and Antarctic. The first will be available in 2018 and will be equipped with an auxiliary battery-powered engine that could allow for near-silent sailing for up to 30 minutes. July 27 2017

  17. BIOJET FUEL DELUSIONS With an average yield of 0.4 metric ton of biojet per hectare of soybeans, the United States would need to put 125 million hectares—an area bigger than Texas and California and Pennsylvania combined—under the plow to supply its own jet fuel needs. That’s nearly four times the 34 million hectares that the country devoted to soybeans in 2016. Even the highest-yielding option, oil palm, which averages 4 metric tons of biojet per hectare, would still require more than 60 million hectares of tropical forest to supply the world’s aviation fuel.

  18. Technical fixes are not enough: global flying 1960-2015 fuel consumption/p-km 65%↓ passenger-kilometers 20x ↑

  19. The greatest long-term challenge in the industrial sector will be to displace fossil carbon used in the production of primary iron, cement, ammonia and plastics output energy intensity embodied energy dominant energies (Mt/y) (GJ/t) (EJ/y) Primary steel 1,100 20 22 coal (coke), natural gas Cement 4,200 4 17 coal, petcoke, fuel oil Ammonia 180 30 5 natural gas Plastics 300 100 30 natural gas, crude oil Total ~ 75 Global fossil fuel consumption 510 EJ 74/510 = 15% We have no mass-scale alternatives that could be deployed immediately

  20. World steel production (China is the world’s largest producer, 50% of the total)

  21. Haber-Bosch ammonia synthesis (China is the world’s largest producer, 33% of the total)

  22. Worldwide production of plastics

  23. Even the best promises are not enough to prevent further rise of atmospheric CO2 “The estimated aggregate greenhouse gas emission levels . . . resulting from the intended nationally determined contributions do not fall within least- cost2°C scenarios but rather lead to a projected level of 55 gigatonnes in 2030 . . . much greater emission reduction efforts will be required than those associated with the intended nationally determined contributions in order to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” (UNFCCC 2015, 3)

  24. Only absolute cuts in energy use would work Given the disparities of energy consumption between affluent and modernizing nations the only possible option is to reduce energy use in rich countries (data in GJ/capita in 2015) USA 295 Japan 150 China 90 Brazil 60 India 20 Nigeria 5 Ethiopia 2

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