I - Passenger and Freight Transport 1970-1996 II - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020

1. Transport and Climate ChangeDifferent Policy Scenario in FranceMaurice GIRAULTMinistère de l'Equipement, des Transports et du Logement, France I - Passenger and Freight Transport 1970-1996 II - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020 methodology and field of projection hypothesis and scenarios for transport policy III - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020: results IV - Projection of pollution and CO2 1996-2020 methodology and results V - Other specific measures against greenhouse effect in transport sector Annex I Expert Group meeting - Transport Roundtable, 18 February 2000

2. I - Passenger and Freight Transport 1970-1996 GDP, Passengers-km and ton-km - Road, rail, air or Inland waterways 100 in 1990

3. II - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020 • Methodology and field of projection Analysis of trends and econometric model for: • interurban passengers transport road, rail and air transport on national network • passenger road traffic local and urban traffic included • freight transport in France road, rail and inland waterways

4. II - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020 • scenarios and hypothesis for transport policy 3 scenarios for GDP • 1,9% • 2,3% • 2,9% per year

5. II - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020 • 4 hypothesis for regulation and transport policy • hypothesis A: market and liberal policy = fuel taxes constant • hypothesis C: taxes for charging external cost diesel excise from 0.37 to 0.65 Euro/l • for road freight : regulations are respected complied with 35 working hours a week under «cheep conditions». • external costs include safety, congestion and environmental costs.

6. II - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020 • 4 hypothesis for regulation and transport policy (ctd.) • hypothesis B: policy is middle way between A and C = BAU • hypothesis D: high transport taxes for slowing down road traffic • for road freight: regulations are respected complied with «expensive conditions» for 35 working hours a week.

7. III - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020: results • Example of freight transport: the 3 scenario for GDP

8. III - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020: results • Impact of hypothesis for regulation and transport policyPassengers transport, passenger-km

9. III - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020: results • Freight transport: 1970-1996-2020t-km

10. IV - Projection of pollution and CO2 1995-2010-2020 Growth of CO2 emissions for road transport depends on changes in regulations and in % of diesel car. CO2 emissions with ACEA agreement Impact of air conditioning included

11. IV - Projection of pollution and CO2 1995-2010-2020 Emission of carbon (with air conditioning) Millions tons of carbon Impact of air conditioning about emission of CO2: three millions tons in 2020. = 3,5% of car emissions or 2% of all vehicles emissions.

12. V - Other specific measures against greenhouse effect in transport sector • Projects and policies of non technical measures in France • Present national Program don’t allow to reach Kyoto’s targets • Six sectorial groups have been convened to propose new measures : • Transport • Housing • Energy • Specific uses of electricity • Agriculture and forestry • Industry • What reduction of carbon emission for each sector in France ? • What reduction for each sector in other European country ?

13. V - Other specific measures against greenhouse effect in transport sector • An integrated approach, closely co-ordinated with • Transport services master plans • A new approach at national and regional levels to define transport system objectives • Urban transport plans • A renewed approach to organise transport systems in big cities aiming to reduce road traffic and to improve other modes

14. Twelve measures have been assessed: • Actions on HGV drivers • Speed reduction for LGV • Private drivers training • Speed enforcement • TERN traffic management • Traffic lights management • Public transport priority with TLM • Urban motorways traffic management • Supplementary measures to Cars Manufacturers agreement • Alternative vehicles • Urban transport plans • Urban policies (land use planning)

15. 4 Transport scenarios used for services master plans • A scenariostability of excises and railways faredecreasing of air fare and of freight costs • B scenariostability of petrol excise and moderate rise of dieselstability of railways fareweak rise of freight costs • C scenariocorrection of diesel excisefall of railways fare for people • D scenariodiesel and petrol price 2€/litre in 2020fall of railways fare for peopleKerosene taxation (50%)Big improvement of working conditions in road freight transport

16. Only D scenario allows to reach Kyoto targetsBut it entails a social cost of 750 Euros /tCIt is not socially acceptable.We need other solutions to reach this target. Main findings : Importance of transport policy and land use planning, particularly at European level

17. Technical complementary measures, in continuation of Auto-Oil program: • an agreement with light and heavy goods vehicles manufacturers, • inclusion of N2O (resulting from cars catalyst) in Auto-Oil program, • better vehicles design for air conditioning, • speed limitation of cars by construction. • European policy for energy taxation: • with important increasing of petrol and diesel minima of taxation, • with a common European position for kerosene taxation in IACO.

18. Common elements of transport policy: • harmonisation of national policies for HGV (notably for speed limitors and tachometers control), • harmonisation of working condition in road transport, • development of light public transport systems in urban areas, • development of a real intermodal and multimodal European system for goods transport (with a very important part of railways and sea shipping), and including regulation and strict management of road goods transport.