Slowing Arctic Melting: Beginnings of a Regional Strategy to Mitigate Climate Change

1. Slowing Arctic Melting: Beginnings of a Regional Strategy to Mitigate Climate Change John Topping, Founder and President, Climate Institute. A lecture to the Hertog Global Strategy Initiative At Columbia University June 13, 2013

2. Record 400ppm CO2milestone – 14th May 2013

3. Climate change not the only adverse human or natural stress affecting ecosystems or areas in which we live. • Growing ocean acidification. • Depletion of fossil aquifers. • Land degradation. • Destruction of forests, especially in the tropical regions. Forces Occurring Together to Accelerate Stress Source: Upwell conservation

4. Arctic Sea Ice Volume Reductions Attribution: Jeff Masters, Ph.D, Weather Underground (2013)

5. Momentum Gaining on the Climate Front • China (the leading greenhouse emitter) — spurred by air quality, climate and trade competiveness concerns — is moving to institute a greenhouse cap and trade system and national carbon tax, and is now largest investor in renewable energy. • U.S., historically source of about a third of industrial era anthropogenic greenhouse emissions, seems on a downward trajectory despite impasse in Washington. • Increased efficiency (in energy use and vehicles), state and city renewable energy incentives, and natural gas for coal substitution are helping drive this trend. • A draft ANSI voluntary Life Cycle Assessment standard providing the most ambitious standards on the planet may become final in 2014; the standard would value reductions of black carbon and establish an Arctic Regional Warming Indicator.

6. Global Motivation: Benefits from Action • There is growing interest in rich and poor nations alike in acting to slash emissions of black carbon and other substances whose reduction will yield health and climate benefits. • Mexico, driven by a public clamor for climate protection, in June 2012 adopted the most ambitious climate protection law of any OECD nation. • Pictured: Tickell Network Climate Theatre. Flor del Bosque Educational Park, Mexico.

7. Lecture Focus TARGET: Short-Lived Climate Forcers & Regions Arctic Climate Action Registry (ACAR) Effort of the Climate Institute, other US and international NGOs and climate and forestry scientists to increase incentives for reduction of SLCFs. Seeks to slow the precipitous loss of Arctic sea ice that could rescramble weather and ocean circulation patterns. Establish a precedent for regionally focused strategies to minimize climate disruption in other vulnerable regions. • Double down on growing interest by focusing efforts on black carbon and the Arctic. • Other SLCFs: tropospheric ozone forming compounds and methane • Other regions near tipping point: the Himalayas- Tibetan Plateau, the Andes and Amazonian Basin, and Antarctica.

8. Short-Lived Climate Forcers • Amazon • Amazon land and conversion forest loss may push to point of dieback. Andes may be affected both by warming and SLCF deposition. Could mean loss of water resources for tens of millions. • Himalayas/Tibetan Plateau • Water resources for at least a sixth of humanity could be imperiled. • Decisive global action targeting SLCFs the next best step to bide time for the regions in danger of irreversible damage. • Increased efficiency, non or low-carbon fuel sources. • Antarctic • Parts warming rapidly with potential for adding to sea level rise from melting of glaciers in  Greenland and other regions and warming of upper layers of ocean.

9. Global Action on Short-Lived Climate Forcers Climate and Clean Air Coalition Challenges Barrier to be overcome: failure of Kyoto Protocol-based trading systems to incentivize these reductions. • Rapid growth of CCAC action on black carbon, methane, hydrofluorocarbons  and tropospheric ozone that together produce as much an effect on climate change as CO2.  • Reductions will often yield not only climate benefits but enhanced  human health (BC), and sometimes economic (recovery for energy of leaking methane) or safety (harvesting of methane from coal mines).

10. Tropospheric Ozone • Formed as a secondary product of other emissions • By oxidation of methane, CO, and VOCs in the presence of NOx • Once formed, lasts 20 – 24 days • Warming Effect is ~ 0.3 W/m2 • 18% of CO2 effect

11. Methane • Atmospheric concentrations rising after several years of stability • Lasts 12 years in atmosphere • Warming Effect is ~ 0.86 W/m2 • Just over 50% of CO2 effect • Win-Win opportunities to reduce methane

12. Black Carbon (Soot) • Dark-colored type of aerosol / particulate matter (PM) • Absorbs sunlight and heat • Stays in atmosphere for only 1 – 2 weeks • Atmospheric Warming Effect is 0.44 – 0.9 W/m2 • 28 – 55% of CO2 effect • Decreased snow albedo in Arctic and Himalayas • Enormous regional increase in warming effect • Globally averaged, is an additional 0.1 – 0.2 W/m2 • Harmful to human respiratory health

13. Regional Effects • “Tropospheric ozone and BC snow albedo effect contribute substantially to rapid warming and sea ice loss in the Arctic” - James Hansen et al. 2005 • Arctic Warming Since 1890 (Shindell et al. 2009) • Black carbon: 0.5 – 1.4˚C • Trop. Ozone: 0.2 – 0.4˚C Shindell estimates that combined sulfate decrease and BC increase caused 75% of direct Arctic warming over past 30 years

14. Benefits from Black Carbon Reduction • Atmospheric loading and warming influence will drop as emissions drop • Acute decrease in Arctic warming • Reducing certain BC emissions will result in: • Reduced indoor air pollution, which kills 1.9M annually • Reduced outdoor air pollution, which kills 0.8M annually

15. Warming Effect During 21st Century Aggressive Reductions in both GHGs and Black Carbon 21st Century CO2 only 20th Century GHG Emissions Credit: MacCracken 2009

16. Near-Term Changes in Warming Effect Black Carbon is Critical to Reducing Near-Term Warming Aggressive Reductions in BC and GHGs Business as Usual Credit: MacCracken 2009

17. Biomass Burning - Largest Current Arctic Climate Forcer • Recent studies indicate that about 75% of light absorbing aerosols (black and brown carbon) deposited on Arctic snow and ice are attributable to crop and grass burning (Hegg et al, 2010). • ARCTAS mission found it contributed 39 %of Arctic black carbon, 69 %of Arctic methane and 38 % of Arctic carbon monoxide, a precursor of tropospheric ozone.(Wedderburn- Bisshop, 2012). • Agricultural and grassland fires are responsible for 69 % of Arctic fire activity with forest and shrubland fires responsible for 24% (Wedderburn- Bisshop, 2012).

18. Biomass Burning - Largest Current Arctic Climate Forcer • The leadsourcesof these emissions in descending order are Russia, Kazakhstan, China, United States, Canada and Ukraine (Pettus, Clean Air Task Force, 2009). • Most of these nations have some form of restrictions on agricultural burning but enforcement is generally lax, especially in places such as northeast China where emissions are most likely to affect the Arctic (Pettus, 2009). • Potential mitigation strategies might include increased enforcement of existing rules and changed seasonality of burning.

19. Arctic Air Overflights - A Source of Black Carbon and Other Climate Warming Emissions • Beginning in 1998 when Russia agreed to permit foreign carrier commercial aviation overflights this has grown to over 40,000 flights a year with significant climate forcing effect. Especially significant is the residence time of black carbon emitted in the stratosphere, as much as an order of magnitude greater than at ground level (Jacobson et al. 2012) • Mark Jacobson at Stanford and colleagues, after an extensive analysis of trans- Arctic flights, concluded it would be possible to reduce emissions by as much as 83 % by rerouting. They project this could significantly delay loss of Arctic sea ice with annual costs globally of about $ 99 million. (Jacobson et al. 2012).

20. Arctic Air Overflights - A Source of Black Carbon and Other Climate Warming Emissions • Breakthroughs in early June by members of International Air Transport Association (IATA) in urging governments to adopt a single market based system to offset post -2020 growth in aircraft emissions may be a heartening sign of growing airline receptivity to climate friendly activity.

21. Development Related to Arctic Warming Produces Sizable Emissions Growth • Shipping - Volume likely to increase as sea ice melts • Potential response -Requiring electrostatic precipitators or changed fuel mix to minimize black carbon emissions on both commercial vessels and icebreakers. • Oil and gas development -Likely to increase, especially in Russia and some other offshore parts of Arctic and near Arctic. • Potential response - Besides seeking universal provisions to minimize oil spills, encouraging near zero black carbon emissions and zero methane releases. • Mining- Although a modest source of emissions, mostly in Russia and Canada, there is large potential for growth of mining industry in Greenland with international investors looking to extract iron and rare earths.

22. Possible Regional Geoengineering Strategies • Changing seasonality of icebreaking- doing less ice breaking in the spring when it reinforces sea ice loss and more in the fall.  • Catalyzing natural processes to absorb Arctic methane-researchers are looking at use of supplements such as nitrate or sulfate to boost productivity of methanotrophs. • Bacteria are responsible for aerobic methane oxidation; archea are responsible for anaerobic oxidation. This might reduce methane release in Arctic oceans, as well as promote a more suitable climate for fish habitation, and thereforefor fish farms. • Sending small ships to disperse sea salt, forming clouds to hold in Arctic heat- Salter and Latham and a UK based Arctic Methane Emergency Group have been the leading advocates for this strategy.

23. The Four Crucial Regions Himalayas Amazonian Rainforest & Andean Mountains

24. The Four Crucial Regions Antarctica The Arctic

25. South America: Closely Interconnected Ecosystems Amazon Rainforest Andes Mountains Glaciers in the mountains provide water supplies for tens of millions in South America and hydropower for millions. Rapid glacial melt imperils this water supply. Efforts are underway to install cleaner cook stoves in many Andean communities and reduce black carbon emissions. • The Amazonian Rainforest is the greatest treasure trove of biodiversity on the planet. • It is disappearing rapidly due to land conversion for cattle farms, mining and small farmers. • Brazilian Scientists (Simoes & Evangelista) report that emissions from burning for land clearing in the Amazon, especially for cattle farms, may be producing as much as half of black carbon deposition in the Antarctic.

26. Glacial thinning: Antarctica Glaciers in Antarctica contain about 70% of all the fresh water on Earth; if all were to melt, global sea levels would rise well over 60 meters- more than 200 feet.

27. Antarctica • There is a modest net loss now from Antarctica, about 150 cubic kilometers each year (Hansen, 2007) but if this accelerates it could add significantly to global sea level rise. • Deposition of significant quantities of black carbon from fires in South America and Africa has been detected in Antarctica and linked to agricultural burning. No linkage has yet been done on their role in ice loss. • Although Antarctica is the coldest region on Earth, some portions in the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctic are among the most rapidly warming parts of the planet. • Most Antarctic ice loss seems attributable to interaction with warming waters of the Southern Ocean more than to warming on the land.

28. The Himalayas

29. Himalayas – Tibetan Plateau • Emissions of black carbon, especially from diesel transport and cook stoves, appear as great a factor as overall global warming in spurring glacial melting. • Indian Supreme Court has mandated that in public transport compressed natural gas vehicles replace current diesel and other vehicles. • Provides water supplies for about one of every six humans on earth. Rapid glacial melt underway that may reduce water availability. • Project Surya seeks to reduce black carbon emissions, save lives and reduce climate forcing through replacement of cook stoves and kerosene lanterns with cleaner alternatives  http://www.projectsurya.org/

30. The Arctic’s Role And Functions of the Arctic Climate Action Registry

31. Climate Change in the Arctic Economist, August 28 2012 In September 2012, a new record level of Ice melt was recorded. At this rate the Arctic could be ice-free in summer by the end of this decade.

32. Climate Change in the Arctic • Melting of the Greenland ice sheet, contributing to global sea level rise • Significant erosion, threatening villages • Collapse of whole ecosystems • Melting of permafrost and release of trapped methane hydrates Scientists at NASA first thought satellite readings were a mistake after images showed 97% surface melt over four days

33. Chief Causes • Global Warming • CO2 and other Kyoto GHGs • Arctic Regional Contribution (50-70%) • Methane • Black Carbon • Tropospheric Ozone • Methane Hydrate Pulse 5,000 billion tons trapped ~ all CO2 and CH4 combined

34. Climate Change Impacts • Displacement of villages due to sea level rise and melting permafrost • Public infrastructure damage • Ecosystem impacts (e.g., new pests, migratory species) • Food security (e.g., fisheries, subsistence hunting, melting ice cellars) • Human health issues (e.g., disease, asthma)

35. Climate Change Impacts ALASKA The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has reported: • Almost all of Alaska’s 200+ villages have been affected by flooding and erosion, with 4 requiring relocation • 31 villages face imminent threats • 12 of the 31 villages are exploring relocation options

36. Locations of Arctic Indigenous Peoples

37. Significance for International Security • Accelerated glacial melting in Greenland and Antarctica could enhance projected sea level rise, threatening the US, other coastal nations and island states. • Potential unpredictable effects on weather patterns and world agriculture at loss of year round Arctic Sea Ice.

38. Arctic Climate Action Registry (ACAR) • An effort to incentivize reductions of emissions of soot, methane and tropospheric ozone forming compounds. • No other organization in the world is taking action fast enough to save the Arctic. The Arctic Climate Action Registry will certify projects that immediately slow the meltdown in the Arctic using metrics defined in the new Draft American (ANSI) Greenhouse Gas Accounting Standard. • The Arctic Climate Action Registry Network is a social network consisting of scientists, business leaders, government officials, educators, and consumers. Its goal is to help members communicate about taking action to save the Arctic. • If successful, could be adapted and extended to the Antarctic, Amazon-Andes and Himalayas.

39. ACAR Vision, Mission and Strategy • VISION: Slow down and ultimately end climate change in the Arctic region and, in so doing, slow down climate change around the globe. • MISSION: Mitigate greenhouse gases and other climate forcers affecting the Arctic region. • STRATEGY: Stimulate projects and activities in support of our mission, based on incentives and market mechanisms, with measurable progress within the decade.

40. ACAR Participants ACAR HOME The Climate Institute Steering Committee ARCTIC CLIMATE PROTECTION NETWORK Companies Government agencies Institutions Individuals TRANSACTIONAL REGISTRY Managed by the American Carbon Registry Based on Arctic Climate Metrics from LEO-SCS-002 ARCTIC CLIMATE FOOTPRINT & 3rd PARTY OFFSET VERIFICATION SCS Global Services

41. Current Steering Committee Members Charles Bayless, Chair, Chairmen of the Board Essential Power Luis Roberto Acosta, President, Instituto del Clima Senator Heherson Alvarez, Commissioner for Climate Change, Philippines; Former Philippine Secretary of the Department of Agrarian Reform and the Department of Environment and Natural Resources Steve Apfelbaum, President, Applied Ecological Services Paul Bartlett, Environmental Scientist Robert W. Corell, Principal, Global Environmental Technology Foundation; Chair, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Gary Dodge, Director of Science and Certification, Forest Stewardship Council U.S. Robert Engelman, President, Worldwatch Institute Peter A. Globensky, Principal Consultant, BASA; Former CEO, Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment

42. Current Steering Committee Members John Kadyszewski, Director, American Carbon Registry Stephen Leatherman, Professor and Director of the Laboratory for Coastal Research at Florida International University Michael MacCracken, Chief Scientist, The Climate Institute John Noel, President, Southern Alliance for Clean Energy Conn Nugent, President, Heinz Center Ata Qureshi, Team Leader, Asia Climate Study. Stanley Rhodes, President, Scientific Certification Systems Terry Root, Senior Fellow, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment Linda Schade, Executive Director, The Black Carbon Reduction Council Tim Warman, Former Vice President, Climate and Energy, National Wildlife Federation Carol Werner, Executive Director, Environmental and Energy Study Institute Daniel Wildcat, Professor, Haskell Indian Nations University; Founder, Indigenous Peoples Climate Change Working Group

43. ACAR Registry Project Opportunities Examples Shipping – Equipping ships with technology to capture black carbon, and using or purchasing turbine-powered ships. Agricultural Burning - Reduce and change seasonality Airlines– Reduced emissions from airline fleets, e.g., some rerouting of flights, increased fuel efficiency. Pollution Prevention –Stack emissions captured at electricity production and other industrial facilities. Methane Capture – Methane capture for energy generation. Natural Cycle Enhancement – Micronization of sea water to help cool the region, i.e., ships generating spray to promote cooling.

44. Some Encouraging Trends U.S. Greenhouse Gases Energy Use & Emissions • Total emissions levels have dropped almost to 1994 levels due largely to increased efficiency and greater use of renewables. • Should continue by a substitution in U.S. of natural gas for coal in the utility sector. • To maximize climate benefits of coal to gas switch, it is crucial to minimize methane leaks from  natural gas system.

45. U.S. Position: Opportunity • Leverage our good fortune as soon-to-be world’s leading energy producer; ensure continued prosperity and catalyze effective national and international response to climate change. • In natural gas sector: hold overall  methane leakage from natural   gas extraction, transmission and  distribution to below 1%. • How can our energy planning and foreign policy promote results that will sustain our national economy, reduce risk of climate disruption, and meld into climate protection responses, benefits to human health and food production?

46. U.S. Opportunities • Wide political support here. April 22, 2009, joint sponsorship of successful legislation by Senators Inhofe, Carper, Boxer and Kerry to mandate U.S. EPA to develop options for black carbon reductions here and abroad. • Encourage special focus on emission reductions in regions such as Arctic, where we may be at near irreversible climate tipping points. • Reduce federal and state regulatory barriers to energy recycling (cogeneration). • Promote aggressive international attack on Short- Lived Climate Forcers that affect climate and human health and  where benefits can be realized soon.

47. China Moving Forward in Climate Protection • As RamezNaam noted in Slate May 8, 2013 China now seems determined to be a world leader in climate protection: 1. Moving forward with a cap and trade plan in seven regions Including provinces of Guangdong and Hubei and cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing and Shenzhen, with a goal of linking by 2020 to a national carbon market. 2. Planning to institute a tax on CO2 emissions, as early as 2015 or 2016.

48. China Moving Forward in Climate Protection 3. Investing $65 billion on renewable energy in 2012, compared with $35 billion in the US the same year.  4. China now produces over half of the global production of solar panels with the US now producing less than 10 percent. Significantly, driven by both climate and air quality concerns, China appears to be considering the integration of valuation for reduction of emissions of black carbon and other short- lived climate forcers into their cap and trade plans. A chef in China's Shandong province removes chicken from a solar cooker

49. A Region Specific Mitigation Strategy ACAR TARGET: Black carbon, ozone forming compounds and methane • Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau: rapid glacial melt imperils the water supplies of much of humanity; mitigation action (cleaner cook stoves and transport systems) can avert hundreds of thousands of air pollution deaths annually. • Latin America: glacial melt in the Andean region and drying out of key agricultural lands in South America is spurred by burning and land conversion. • ACAR to leverage growing public interest in slowing climatic disruption in the regions closest to a tipping point, corporate interest in averting climatic chaos and voluntary emission reduction incentive systems to slow loss of sea ice and glacial melting.

50. Climate Change and the International Stage Thank you! Questions/Comments? Acknowledgments: Principally HumiunMiah and Jillian Jordan, thanks also to Michael MacCracken, John - Michael Cross, Matt Vetter, Christopher Philipp, and Linda Brown. www.climate.org & Arctic Climate Action Registry (ACAR) at http://www.climate.org/programs/acar/index.html