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M . Amann , J. Cofala, Z. Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

M . Amann , J. Cofala, Z. Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Progress in developing the baseline scenario for CAFE. CAFE workplan. 2003: Development of the baseline scenario(s) May 27-28: Stakeholder consultation meeting

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M . Amann , J. Cofala, Z. Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

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  1. M. Amann, J. Cofala, Z. KlimontInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis • Progress • in developing the • baseline scenario • for CAFE

  2. CAFE workplan • 2003: Development of the baseline scenario(s) • May 27-28: Stakeholder consultation meeting • September-December: Bilateral consultations • October-November: Model reviews • January 2004: Draft baseline scenarios • March 2004: Final baseline scenarios • 2004: Analysis of main policy alternatives • 2005: Analysis of policy variants, policy decisions

  3. Ingredients of the baseline scenario • Energy and traffic projections • Agricultural projections • Emission inventories for 2000 • National policies (NEC reports, UN/ECE policies and strategies) • Database on emission control options and costs • Critical loads and levels • Quantification of health risks • Atmospheric dispersion calculations, regional and urban scales • Uncertainty information

  4. Energy projections • CAFE will use three variants: • PRIMES scenario with Kyoto (incl. flexible mechanisms) and 1%/year escalation of carbon price beyond 2012 • PRIMES scenario without Kyoto(Energy2030 Study of DG-TREN) • National projections up to 2020, with national assumptions about implementation of the Kyoto agreement (to be submitted until June 30)

  5. Concept of multiple baselines Emissions Baseline 1 Baseline 2 Policy target 2010 Time 2015

  6. Energy projectionsPRIMES scenarios EU-15 Accession countries

  7. Transport baseline • PRIMES energy projections contain traffic projections,to be refined by TREMOVE/SCENES model • Issues: • Emissions from Euro2/3 trucks • SUV • GDI • Implications of Kyoto • National scenarios to be submitted by June 30

  8. Agricultural projections • EU projections: • Up to 2009: • EU-15: CAPRI model for DG-AGRI • Accession countries: DG-AGRI model • Fertilizer use: EFMA • 2010-2020: • FAO projections • National projections:to be submitted until June 30

  9. EU projections of cattleDG-AGRI scenarios EU-15 Accession countries

  10. Emission inventories for 2000 • In-depth review of national submissions of 2000 inventories by IIASA and EEA/ETC

  11. Preliminary observations from initial comparison • Some important countries (Germany, Greece, Italy, Switzerland) report only SNAP1 emission data and no activity data • Only 3 countries provide emission projections on sectoral level • Only few activity projections, they often lack necessary detail, i.e., by fuel but not by sector. • 20 countries submitted data on PM emissions, but only 13 provided size fraction distribution and only 8 sectoral data. No documentation. • List of questions to countries

  12. National policies • Review of: • NEC reports to EU • UN/ECE Review of policies and strategies • Bilateral consultations with national experts

  13. Emission control options and costs • EGTEI will provide detailed information on • Emission control options and costs • Application potentials in countries • Uncertainty ranges • For priority sectors (industrial processes, small combustion, off-road, chemical industry, solvent directive sectors) • Potential for new technologies?

  14. Critical loads and levels • Acidification & eutrophication: • CCE will call for updated critical loads data in 2003 • Call for data for dynamic modelling, use response surface for integrated assessment modelling • Final data in 2004 • Ozone: • Gothenburg workshop concluded: • AOT40(30) for forests and semi-natural vegetation • Ozone fluxes for potatoes and wheat • AOT40 for other crops • Need for consistent land use maps!

  15. Quantification of health impacts • Advice from WHO: • Effects of PM: • Mortality: Aim at life expectancy • Morbidity: Cooperation with RIVM • Effects of O3: • WHO will advice on dose-response curves • For mortality, data are available in RAINS • For morbidity: more work/data necessary • Are PM and O3 effects additive?

  16. Atmospheric dispersion calculations • Regional scale source-receptor relationships: • Awaiting results from EMEP Eulerian model • Linearity needs to be clarified • Model intercomparison could provide uncertainty ranges • Urban background pollution: • Starting from rural background concentrations, using findings from CityDelta (function of emission densities, titration, uncertainties, etc.)

  17. Uncertainty information • Alternative energy projections provide ranges • EGTEI is expected to deliver quantified uncertainty ranges for emission control options • Insight from the model intercomparison of regional dispersion models? • CityDelta provides ranges of model responses • Critical loads: Input from CCE • Health impacts: CI of evidentiary studies and WHO review • Possibility to model alternative health impact hypothesis (e.g., black carbon, PM10, etc.) • How to derive robust conclusions?

  18. Conclusions • Workplan is tough • Some elements are critical (model, data, review) • First stakeholder meeting: May 27-28, 2003 • Active cooperation with Parties is essential • Uncertainty management could become essential

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