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Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

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Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

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  1. Updated Scenarios for the Negotiations on theRevision of the Gothenburg Protocolwith contributions from Imrich Bertok, Jens Borken-Kleefeld, Janusz Cofala, Chris Heyes, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Zbigniew Klimont, Peter Rafaj, Wolfgang Schöpp, Fabian Wagner 49th Meeting of the Working Group on Strategies and ReviewGeneva, September 12-15, 2011 Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

  2. Updated scenarios: new information • TFIAM 40: Comparison of optimized scenarios of CIAM 1/2011 report with national data from a technical perspective • GAINS training session for EECCA countries at CIAM • Comments received from 23 Parties and have been incorporated into GAINS • Focus on new information on emission inventories, if submitted to EMEP • Revised optimization for same targets as CIAM 1/2011 report

  3. Costs for improving individual effectsCIAM 1/2011 vs CIAM 4/2011

  4. Differences in optimized emission ceilings • Differences in results between CIAM 1/2011 and CIAM4/2011: • Total costs: <1% • More than 5% differences in emission ceilings:for SO2: 1 Party; NOx: 2 Parties; NH3: 8 Parties; PM: 3 Parties, VOC: 5 Parties. • Set of key measures is robust. • But larger uncertainties emerge from base year inventories due to • unresolved discrepancies between national and EUROSTAT statistics, • transport emission factors, • continuous updates of historic emission inventories by some countries. • GAINS emission ceilings: • Calculated relative to 2005 PRIMES scenario, based on EUROSTAT statistics and COPERT emission factors, • GAINS calculation include same set of source sectors for all countries, while some countries report additional sources (e.g., NOx, VOC from agricultural soils). Differences provided in report.

  5. Conclusions • Emission control scenarios have been recalculated based on comments received from 23 Parties. • In general, the changes caused only minor changes in optimized emission ceilings (with few exceptions). Set of key measures is robust. • Larger uncertainties emerge from base year inventories, which should be considered when agreeing on binding emission ceilings.

  6. Access to all data via GAINS-Online URL: http://gains.iiasa.ac.at Version: GAINS-Europe Scenario group: CIAM 4/2011

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