Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Laxenburg, Austria

1. Integrated Assessment Modeling, cost-effectiveness, and agricultural projections in the RAINS model Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Laxenburg, Austria Inventory and Projections Experts Workshop 27th-28th February, 2003, Copenhagen

2. Cost-effectiveness needs integration • Economic/energy development (projections) • State of emission controls, available technologies, costs • Atmospheric processes • Environmental sensitivities

3. The model: RAINSdeveloped by IIASA (http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains) Energy/agriculture projections Emission control options Emissions Costs Atmospheric dispersion Environmental targets Environmental impacts

4. Optimization based upon ... • Some sources are more strongly linked than others via the atmosphere to sensitive receptors (as indicated by the source-receptor relationships) • Some sources are cheaper to control than others(as indicated by the cost curves)

5. The model: RAINSdeveloped by IIASA (http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains) Energy/agriculture projections Emission control options OPTIMIZATION Emissions Costs Atmospheric dispersion Environmental targets Environmental impacts

6. A multi-pollutant/multi-effect problem

7. Policy applications of RAINS 1994: Second Sulfur Protocol of UN/ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) 1997: EU Acidification Strategy 1999: Proposal for EU Directive on National Emission Ceilings (NEC Directive in 2001) 1999: Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone of CLRTAP

8. RAINS -Agricultural module (NH3, PM, N2O, CH4) Farm size Excretion rate and volume Abatement technologies (efficiency, costs, etc.) Manure system Housing period Livestock (base year and forecasts) Current practice Emission factor Control strategies Emissions and Costs Volatilization rate, etc. Fertilizers (base year, forecasts) Climatic zone % N loss Soil type Other activities (base year, forecasts) Emission factor Legend: - Data assumed in the model but available for review - Data asked for - Data available from guidebooks - Result of calculation

9. RAINS – Basic characteristics • Agricultural module part of the IAM framework • Activity databases for 1990, 1995, 2000,…2020, • All data on a country level, covering most of the European countries, • Several ammonia abatement options available, • Estimates national emissions of NH3, N2O, CH4 and PM for a range of sources (~20 categories).

10. Emission categories • Dairy cows (liquid and solid waste systems), • Other cattle (liquid and solid waste systems), • Pigs (liquid and solid waste systems), • Laying hens, • Other poultry, • Sheep and goats, • Fur animals, • Horses, • Fertilizer use (Urea, Other N-fertilizers), • Fertilizer production, • Waste treatment and disposal, • Residential combustion, • Industrial combustion, • Transport, • Other.

11. Data sources Historical data • Statistics (e.g., FAO, EUROSTAT, IFA, OECD, national) • Communication with national experts, • Own assessments. Forecasts • Agricultural models (e.g., CAPRI), • Commission forecasts (DG AGRI), • Countries’ submissions, • Other organizations’ forecasts (FAO, EFMA, OECD, etc.), • Own assessments.

12. Documentation • Methodology papers • Latest databases • All scenario analyses, interim reports to ECE and EU • On-line model (web version) available at http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains

13. RAINS model and projections • Activity data projections are not generated in RAINS, • RAINS is a “user” of provided [and accepted] projections, although, • RAINS user can prepare her/his own projections, • User’s projections can be used to analyze alternative scenarios.