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PEG serves as a platform for procurement leaders in the engineering and construction industry, representing core values and discussing industry landscapes, market trends, and forecasts. Stay informed through compelling discussions and insights.
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EPC OutlookProcurement Executives Group ............The Path Forward ............ Climate of Concern John F Mika Senior Vice President of Procurement CH2M HILL
Discussion Topics • Procurement Executives Group (PEG) • Global Economic Environment • Supply Market Landscape • EPC Industry Landscape • Concerns and Threats • Questions and answers
2011 Membership Profile ENR Rankings • Top Contractors • 6 of top 10 are PEG • 10 of top 25 are PEG • 12 of top 50 are PEG • Top Design Firms • 7 of top 10 are PEG • 13 of top 25 are PEG • 15 of top 50 are PEG • Top International Contractors • 15 of top 225 are PEG
Charter Core Values • Ethics and Integrity • Safety • Quality • Diversity • Sustainability • Collaboration • Leadership in Procurement Excellence The Procurement Executives Group (PEG) serves as a forum for the executive leadership of procurement and supply management in the engineering and construction industry. We seek to represent, promote, and improve the contributions of our profession to the industry we serve. In fulfilling this mission, PEG and our member company representatives are committed to a set of Core Values…. For more information, visit http://peg-eci.org/
Headlines • Concern around a double dip recession • US and European expansion anemic • Consumer and business confidence • Sovereign worries • Fiscal tightening • Gridlocked US government • Emerging markets fairing better • Best growth • Best pricing potential, selling or buying • Projects • “Giga Projects” is the new landscape
Global Recovery: Diminished Expectations Real GDP Growth Source: IHS Global Insight
U.S. Economic Growth by Sector (Percent change unless otherwise noted) Source: Global Insight
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes: Manufacturing Slowing Down Source: Global Insight
Pressures in Supply Chains are Beginning to Abate United States China Brazil Eurozone Source: Global Insight
Supply Base Risks and Influences • Supplier performance • Shop capacity restraints • Global dispersion of supply chain, continues • Regulation changes and compliance • Financial condition and access • Commodity volatility • Energy cost and availability • Counterfeit, fraud, and suspect items
Market Capital Expenditures (Capex) • Power • Oil, Gas, and Chemical (OG&C) • Civil • Mining
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Global Energy Demand Forecast 50% Growth Renewables Nuclear MMBOED Coal Natural Gas Liquids Fossil fuels projected to meet 80% of energy demand in 2035 Source: U.S. Department of Energy, International Energy Outlook & BP Statistical Review.
Power Global Capex Oil, Gas & Chemicals Global Capex Mining Global Capex Civil Global Capex Source: IHS Global Insight
Total Global Capex (Power, Oil, Gas & Chemical, Civil, Mining Source: IHS Global Insight
Regional Global Capex Source: Global Insight
EPC Industry Landscape • Strong capital expenditures 2012 – 2015 • Significant growth in EPC Spend ahead, some bow wave happening • Global project challenges • Attracting and retaining staff • Local labor shortages • Lack of infrastructure • Remote and challenging locations • Complex scope and size • Global sourcing • Opportunities and challenges
EPC ‘Crystal Ball’ - Spend Forecast Spend Forecast - Revisited
‘Crystal Ball’ – Part II - Revisited
…….Climate of Concern • 40% chance for double dip • Can Washington work again in collaboration • Can the European debt crisis stabilize • From Arab Spring to Arab Fall • Can we continue to be ready for impending expansion Logistics is even more critical to EPC success!