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Karakteristik Pokok Perek. Ind.

Karakteristik Pokok Perek. Ind. Negara Kepulauan (Archipelagic State) (Lapan: 18.108; Bakusutarnal: 17506/Noname: 11.013; Land area: 1.9 m km km 2 ) economic implications??? (Wide economic variation: no uniform policy!; Sea: important nat-res; tranp )

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Karakteristik Pokok Perek. Ind.

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  1. Karakteristik Pokok Perek. Ind. • Negara Kepulauan (Archipelagic State)(Lapan: 18.108; Bakusutarnal: 17506/Noname: 11.013; Land area: 1.9 m km km2 ) economic implications??? (Wide economic variation: no uniform policy!; Sea: important nat-res; tranp) • Menghadapi Persoalan Kependudukan (number and distribution of populations; low quality; high unemployment; high poverty; etc) • Kaya sumberdaya alam (mining: oil, coal, gold; forestry; sea) 4. Kekurangan Kapitall (invite FI & foreign debt)

  2. 5. Struktur ekonomi : primary sector based!! • 6. Industrialisasi Lamban proteksi • 7. Sistem ekonomi campuran • 8. Adanya dualisme ekonomi • 9. Perekonomian dikuasai unit-unit usaha besar  “managed” by conglomerates!!

  3. Luas lautan: 7,9 jt km2-daratan 1,9 jt km2 • Pulau: - Lapan: 18.108 buah - Bakosurtanal: 17506 buah 11.03 belum punya nama; dan baru 7 % berpenduduk! IMPLIKASI EKONOMI: • Laut penting: transportasi dan SDA • Variasi ekonomi antardaerah besar  kebijakan tak bisa seragam!!

  4. Masalah kependudukan • Jumlah penduduk yg besar • Laju pertambahan penduduk tinggi • Penyebaran penduduk yg tidak merata • Pengangguran dan kemiskinan • Kualitas dan produktivitas yg rendah

  5. Dualisme Ekonomi • Teori ttg dualisme ekonomi (pre-capitalist and capitalist/socialist) yg kontroversial justru dari studi yang diadakan JH Boeke (Dutch economist) di Indonesia (1910). Dualism: terdpt dua sistem yg sangat berbeda, yg hidup dlm suatu masyarakat secara berdampingan yg tidak bisa menguasai satu dg lainnya (Boeke)

  6. Ada 2 lingkungan yg berbeda: ada yg superior dan ada yg inferior, tetapi hidup pada lingkungan yang sama. For example: • Extreme poverty and affluence ( pockets of wealth within broad areas poverty) • Modern and traditional economic sectors • Growth and stagnation • University educatiomong a few and mass illiteracy

  7. Jenis dualismeTypes of Dualism Dualisme Sosial (JH Boeke, 1910) Dualisme Finansial (Hla Mynt, 1967) Dualisme Teknologi ( Higgins, 1959) Dualisme Regional Readings: Sayogyo “Bunga Rampai Perekonomian Desa” Ch. 1 and 2; Mubyarto and Edy Suandi Hamid “Kredit Pedesaan di Indonesia” (Ch. 1); Todaro “Economic Development (Ch. 3).

  8. Dualisme Sosial • Terdapat dua sistem sosial dlm masyarakat: *Sistem sosial modern *Sistem sosial tradisional Plural society: Pola hidup (berpikir, pertindak, berperasaan) berbeda!! Boeke: tiap sistem sosial punya sistem ekonomi sendiri-sendiri!! (Prakapitalis dan Kapotalis/Sosialis)

  9. Dualisme Finansial Terdpt 2 sistem psr uang yg sangat berbeda yg melayanai masyarakatnya. • Pasar uang terorganisir (bank, asuransi) • Pasar uang tak terorganisir (pelepas uang, tuan tanah, dsbnya Baca: Kredit Pedesaan di Indonesia (Mubyarto dan Edy Suandi Hamid)

  10. Dualisme Teknologi Dalam satu kegiatan ek digunakan teknik dan organisasi produksi yg berbeda  produktivitas berbeda • Sektor Modern: Teknologi maju (modal besar, tekn. impor, TK berkualitas, pasar: lokal dan dunia) • Sektor Tradisional: teknologi terbelakang (modal kecil, tekn lokal, kualitas TK rendah, pasar lokal)

  11. Dualisme Regional • Ketimpangan Pembangunan antardaerah yg sangat besar  Kota desa; Pusat vs Daerah; Industri vs lainnya.

  12. Sejarah Ekonomi Indonesia Sebelum Kemerdekaan: BASIS: Ekonomi Pedesaan -> Sektor Pertanian dan Industri Rumah Tangga Ekonomi Kolonial  berorientasi untuk memenuhi permintaan pasar kolonialis: pertanian, perkebunan, pertambangan Baca: Mubyarto”Sistem dan Moral Ekonomi Indonesia Setelah kemerdekaan:

  13. Setelah kemerdekaan I. Orde Lama(1945-1965) Ditandai dengan: • Ketidakstabilan politik ketidakstabilan ekonomi • Kekurangan tenaga ahli • Kekurangan teknologi Akibatnya:- pembangunan ek. lamban - potensi ek. tidak tergarap dengan baik

  14. Dengan kondisi demikian ek. memburuk • Warisan ek. Orla ke Orba: • Utang LN US$ 2, 3m miliar • Ekspor hanya separo dari impor • APBN defisit (ULN, cetak uang) • Inflasi tinggi (30-50%) • Kapasitas produksi rendah

  15. Orde Baru (1966-1997/8) Ditandai dengan: • Usaha menciptakan stabilitas polkam • Munculnya tenaga2 profesional ekonomi • Adanya “oil boom” • Rencana pembangunan yg terpadu • Kebijakan2 baru: mengganti sistem pengawasan devisa; anggaran dinamis (menurunkan inflasi); undang PMA; cari utang luar negeri/IGGI)

  16. Program jangka pendek Orde Baru • Tahap penyelamatan (Juli-Des 1966) • Tahap Rehablitasi (Jan-Juni 1967) • Tahap konsolidasi (Juli-Des 1967 • Tahap Stabilisasi (Jan-Juni 1968) Hasilnya: Tabel 3 hal xii (Pert ek tinggi; inflasi turun; kemiskinan kurang; NPI?)

  17. Pasca Orde Baru • Reformasi ekonomi? • Transisi  Gejlak polkam  gejolak ekonomi  masih tidak pasti?? • Kebangkitan ekonomi?? • Wait and see

  18. Views on Indonesian Economy • Hal Hill (1996): If the central purpose of economics to understand why and how growth rates vary across countries and over time, Indonesia is surely one of the best laboratories • Higgins (1968): Indonesia must surely be accounted the number one failure among the major underdeveloped countries  “chronic drop out”

  19. Views on Indonesian Economy • Hal Hill (1996): If the central purpose of economics to understand why and how growth rates vary across countries and over time, Indonesia is surely one of the best laboratories • Higgins (1968): Indonesia must surely be accounted the number one failure among the major underdeveloped countries  “chronic drop out”

  20. Hal Hill: Ina in 1965 was a basket case its ec problems at least as serious as those of today’s LDC in Africa and Asia • Myrdal (1966): As things look at the beginning 0f 1966, there seems to be little prospect of rapid economic growth in Indonesia Facts?

  21. Impressive ec performance! • The Ina ec of the mid-1990s s almost unrecognizable in a comparison with that of the mid-1960s • Rapid structural change • Most of ec indicators:performed well! • IBRD: Miracle! • Improve from LDC  Middle Income Countries

  22. The major Criticisms (27) • The high growth has been achieved mainly by favorable movement in ToT • The exploitation of nonrenewable NR • The rising external debts • The ec policy bias to “the haves”  conglomerates

  23. Indonesia experiences • Old Order budget deficit (printing money): Ms increase  accelerating inflation  650% (1966) • New Order: Control inflation -“Snaring” cut of value of Rph - Open international capital - Fixed exchange rate - Balanced budget principle - Banking Reform

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