Climate Change and Food Security background issues and an international research response

1. Climate Change and Food Securitybackground issues andan international research response Professor Diana Liverman Chair, GECAFS Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford

2. Rising concern about food security… • Increases in prices of 20%-80% since 2000 • Demand (including biofuels) • Energy costs (input, transport) • Climate impacts (e.g. drought in Australia) • Food reserves declining • World Food programme call for extra $500m for food aid to poor

3. IPCC 2007 concludes climates and ecosystems are already changing as a result of human activities Projected warming of 2 to 4.5 degrees Significant impacts on global agriculture and food prices by 2050 Climate change impacts on agriculture and food systems(from IPCC 4AR Chapter 5)

4. Millions of people are hungry

5. Many economies rely on agriculture

6. Food security… ... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (World Food Summit 1996) ... is underpinned by Food Systems and is affected by global environmental change

7. Food Security FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS • Nutritional Value • Social Value • Food Safety • Affordability • Allocation • Preference FOOD AVAILABILITY • Production • Distribution • Exchange “Food System” concept integrates Food System Activities and Outcomes Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food: natural resources, inputs, technology, … Processing & packagingfood: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, … Distributing & retailingfood: transport, marketing, advertising, … Consumingfood: acquisition, preparation, customs, … Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to: • Social Welfare • Income • Employment • Wealth • Social capital • Political capital • Human capital • Environmental • Welfare • Ecosystem stocks & flows • Ecosystem services • Access to natural capital Ericksen, P. Conceptualizing Food Systems for GEC Research (GEC: 2007)

8. More than crop yields…. • Understanding the impacts of climate change on food security means looking at how climate change affects the whole food system (production, processing, distribution, consumption) and at more than just amount of production (quality, cultural value, access) • The response to climate change (mitigation) can also affect food security because the food system is a source of greenhouse gases and because some solutions compete with food

9. Food systems are changing… Ericksen, 2007 (adapted from Maxwell and Slater 2004)

10. Global Environmental Changeand Food Systems (GECAFS) An ESSP international research project in collaboration with

11. GECAFS Goal To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of Global Environmental Change (GEC) on food systems and to assess the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptive responses aimed at improving food security.

12. GECAFS addresses three “Fundamental Questions” • How will GEC affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions? • How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security? • What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions? • all of interest to: • Policy • Science • Society at large

13. Developing Interdisciplinary Research Approaches to advance science and address policy • Conceptual & methodological research on generic topics II. Policy-relevant research at regional-level on impacts, adaptation and feedbacks • Food Systems Concepts • Vulnerability Concepts • Scenario Methods • Decision Support Concepts • Indo-Gangetic Plain • Caribbean • Southern Africa • Europe [ESF/COST] based on science and policy issues identified in regional projects based on improved conceptual understanding and methods

14. GECAFS Regional Research objectives • Improved assessment of the spatial and temporal vulnerability of food systems to GEC at regional level • Improved decision support to address stakeholder needs by • helping identify potential policy and technical interventions for adaptation options to reduce vulnerability to GEC • analysing potential environmental and socioeconomic feedbacks from different adaptation options • Improved food security and natural resource management from enhanced awareness and decision making

15. GECAFS Regional Research methods • Regional consultations with stakeholders • Field-based assessment of food systems and vulnerability to global environmental change • Decision support for adaptation planning • Collaboration with international stakeholders

16. GECAFS Regional Science Plans • Policy-relevant research at regional-level • Focus on vulnerability/impacts, adaptation and feedbacks • Based on improved conceptual understanding and methods • Innovative research partnerships

17. GECAFS regional activities and 23 Commonwealth countries + active collaboration with Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK Indo-Gangetic Plain Bangladesh, India, Pakistan (3) Caribbean Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, St Kitts and Nevis, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago (12) Southern Africa Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia (8)

18. GECAFS Regional Research examples Climate Change and Food Security in Southern Africa Adopting a multi-level research approach Climate Change and Food Security in the IGP Analysing food system vulnerability Climate Change and Food Security in the Caribbean Using scenario analyses for decision support