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Big Wind Study

Big Wind Study. Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting April 6, 2011. Purpose of Study. Estimate the Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) for NW wind turbines Quantify the relationship between installed wind generation and light-load-hour overgeneration

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Big Wind Study

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  1. Big Wind Study Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting April 6, 2011

  2. Purpose of Study • Estimate the Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) for NW wind turbines • Quantify the relationship between installed wind generation and light-load-hour overgeneration • Examine the effects of wind generation on thermal resource dispatch April 6, 2011

  3. Caveats • Results are not for distribution • BiOp data needs updating (again!) • Still working on hydro shaping logic in GENESYS • Used constant DEC requirements for all studies • Ran limited number of games with sequential hydro, lockstep temperature and random wind April 6, 2011

  4. Wind ELCC Assumptions • 2015 operating year • Existing resources • Expected new conservation (short-term model) • Ran Dec-Feb and Jul-Sep only • Base case • Removed all wind • Calculated total annual average curtailment per game • Study cases • Added 200 MWa of shaped load • Added increments of wind capacity until the total annual average curtailment per game equaled that in the base • Repeated above with greater amounts of load April 6, 2011

  5. Wind ELCC Results (200 MWa) April 6, 2011

  6. Wind ELCC Results April 6, 2011

  7. Wind ELCC Results April 6, 2011

  8. Overgeneration Study Assumptions • 210 games, sequential hydro, lockstep thermal and random wind (screening studies) • 2015 regional loads • Existing resources • 2015 Power Plan conservation (1,200 MWa) • No thermal ramping logic (results in lower overgeneration values) • Wind was added with no additional load April 6, 2011

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  16. Next Steps • Update BiOp data • For overgeneration study, run scenarios with no thermal cycling – to assess worst case magnitude • Continue to review hydro shaping logic • Explore adding ramping logic for thermals April 6, 2011

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