Expert Group Meeting: Compendium on Intra-African and Related Foreign Trade Statistics

Expert Group Meeting: Compendium on Intra-African and Related Foreign Trade Statistics Economic Statistics and National Accounts Section African Centre for Statistics 5–7 October 2011 Africa Hall, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Outline of Presentation • Agenda and Administrative Matters • Purpose and Context of the EGM • Objective of the Compendium • Data Sources • Methodology of Estimation • Compendium Tables 1-15

Agenda & Administrative Matters: Day • The program for the three-day meeting: • Day 1: To review and discuss on the Compendium; • Day 2: To share good experience and practice of the Member States, RECs, and international organizations; and • Day 3: To review and discuss on the design of a capacity building training program for Africa in the area of foreign trade statistics.

Agenda & Administrative Matters: Time

Agenda & Administrative Matters: Session

Purpose and Context of the EGM • To review and discuss on the Compendium; and to get experts’ opinions on how to improve the Compendium; • To share good experience and practice of the Member States, RECs, and international organizations; and • To review and design a training program on improving external merchandise trade statistics for those countries that have not reported full data.

Objective of the Compendium on Intra-African Trade Statistics • The Compendium is to provide quality and relevant statistical data for monitoring and evaluation of the progress of the intra-African trade; • The intra-African trade is a critical component and main agenda of Africa’s integration process; and • Regional integration is a key strategy of the governments on the continent.

Low Level of Trade within Africa • Statistics shows that African share in world trade has declined from around 6% in 25 years ago to about 2%; less than 1%, if South Africa is excluded. • More than 80% of African countries’ exports are still destined for markets outside the continent, with the EU and the US accounting for more than 50% of the total. • The commodity structure of export is dominated by primary products.

The Intra-African Trade: Benefits • Benefits from trade openness • Increase competition in the labor market  increase productive efficiency • Less distortionary domestic policies and more disciplined management • Costs from low trade • Low Intra-African Trade  Lose Benefiting From The Gains of Trade.

The Purpose of Regional Integration in Africa • To achieve sustained and robust economic growth. • To ensure poverty alleviation. • To enhance movement of goods, services, capital, and labor. • To strengthen socio-economic policy coordination and harmonization. • To support infrastructure development, and • To promote peace and security within and between the regions.

How to Achieve Regional Integration in Africa • RECs to embark on the process of integration along a systematic continuum of Free Trade Area, Customs Union, and Common Market. • RECs to harmonize their business laws. • RECs to introduce community passports to ease movement of goods and persons. • RECs to establish macroeconomic convergence targets.

Data sources The main data sources used in compiling the Compendium • Commodity Trade Database (UNSD) • Monthly Bulletin of Statistics (UNSD) • International Financial Statistics (IMF) • Direction of Trade Statistics (IMF) • UNCTAD

Methodology of Estimation Three assumptions have been used in filling data gaps depending on the nature of missing data • When the missing data are consecutively for one or two years, the actual shares of imports and exports of the preceding year by partner countries have been used from COMTRADE database for estimation purposes. • The other method that has been applied was to use the share of the direction of trade data by partner countries from DOTS. • For those countries where there were no data in DOTS, mirror data from COMTRADE database have been used to fill the data gaps. Note: whenever available, total imports and exports data are used from the MBS or IFS in all cases.

Table 1 – Total trade of Africa by country and sub-region – Content and structure Content: The values are given in million U.S. dollars The years are for 2001 to 2010 Structure: It includes data for all African countries that are members of ECA (53 countries) The countries are grouped into five sub-regions There are 7 countries in North Africa; 15 countries in West Africa; 7 countries in Central Africa; 13 countries in East Africa; and 11 countries in Southern Africa Total trade data are provided for each sub-region and all Africa as well

Table 1 – Total trade of Africa by country and sub-region Possible uses • Gives a good idea of relative value of imports by country and sub-region. • Allows appreciating the trends in the volume of trade for countries and sub-regions. • Informs about the evolution of the global competitiveness of the countries. • Useful for evaluating the effects of government regulations and domestic policies on industries • Useful for assessing a country’s trade performance which is also assessing to what extent it is poised for growth

Table 1 – Total trade of Africa by country and sub-region Questions for discussions • Do you think the table is relevant for the compendium? • Are the regional breakdowns useful for analysis? • What do you think of the presentation of the table? • Do you think showing data in volume would be more useful? • Do you think an additional table showing the data as share of GDP would be useful?

Table 2 - Total intra-African trade by country and sub-region Content and structure Content: The values are given in million U.S. dollars The years are for 2001 to 2010 Structure: It includes data for all African countries that are members of ECA (53 countries) The countries are grouped into five sub-regions There are 7 countries in North Africa; 15 countries in West Africa; 7 countries in Central Africa; 13 countries in East Africa; and 11 countries in Southern Africa Total intra-African trade data are provided for each sub-region and all Africa as well

Table 2 - Total intra-African trade by country and sub-regionPossible uses • Gives an ideas of how African countries trade among themselves; • Allow appreciating the evolution in time of intra-African Trade.

Table 2 - Total intra-African trade by country and sub-region Questions for discussions • Do you think the table is relevant for the compendium? • Are the regional breakdowns useful for analysis? • What do you think of the presentation of the table? • Do you think the table should be presented with more breakdowns? • Do you think the table is too detailed?

Table 3 – Share of total intra-African trade by country and sub-region Content and structure Content: The shares are given in percentages at one decimal point The years are for 2001 to 2010 Structure: It includes data for all African countries that are members of ECA (53 countries) The countries are grouped into five sub-regions There are 7 countries in North Africa; 15 countries in West Africa; 7 countries in Central Africa; 13 countries in East Africa; and 11 countries in Southern Africa Percentage shares of trade are provided for each sub-region and all Africa as well

Table 3 – Share of total intra-African trade by country and sub-region Possible uses • Tells us what percentage of the total import or exports of African countries and regions are directed toward other African countries and regions. • Allows evaluating the participation of Africa in the global trading system

Table 3 – Share of total intra-African trade by country and sub-regionQuestions for discussions • Do you think the table is relevant for the compendium? • Are the regional breakdowns useful for analysis? • What do you think of the presentation of the table? • Do you think these are the most relevant ratios? • Are there complimentary indicators that should be presented with this table?

Table 4 – Total trade of Africa by country and economic grouping - Content and structure Content: The values are given in million US dollars It covers the years 2001 to 2010 Structure: It includes total trade data for the eight regional economic communities recognized by the African Union Commission (AUC) The eight regional economic communities recognized by AUC are: Arab Maghreb Union (UMA) - 5 members Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) – 19 members Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD) – 28 members East African Community (EAC) – 5 members Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) – 11 members Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) – 15 members Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) – 6 members Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) – 15 members

Table 4 – Total trade of Africa by country and economic groupingPossible uses • Gives a good idea of value of imports by country and economic grouping • Allows appreciating the trends in the volume of import for countries and economic grouping.

Table 4 – Total trade of Africa by country and economic groupingQuestions for discussions • Do you think the table is relevant for the compendium? • Are the regional breakdowns useful for analysis? • What do you think of the presentation of the table? • Are RECs useful groupings for the analysis of the data? • Would it have been useful to show the data in volume?

Table 5 - Total intra-African trade by country and economic grouping Content and structure Content: The values are given in million US dollars It covers the years 2001 to 2010 Structure: It includes total intra-African trade data for the eight regional economic communities recognized by the African Union Commission (AUC) The eight regional economic communities recognized by AUC are: Arab Maghreb Union (UMA) - 5 members Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) – 19 members Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD) – 28 members East African Community (EAC) – 5 members Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) – 11 members Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) – 15 members Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) – 6 members Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) – 15 members

Table 5 - Total intra-African trade by country and economic groupingPossible uses • Gives an idea of how the different regional economic communities trade among themselves. • Give an idea of the inter-dependencies between different parts of the continent.

Table 5 - Total intra-African trade by country and economic groupingQuestions for discussions • Do you think the table is relevant for the compendium? • Are the regional breakdowns useful for analysis? • What do you think of the presentation of the table? • Do you think more breakdowns are needed for this table? • Would it have been useful to show also indices for these data?

Table 6 – Share of total intra-African trade by country and economic grouping - Content and structure Content: The shares are given in percentages at one decimal point It covers the years 2001 to 2010 Structure: It includes the shares of total intra-African trade data for the eight regional economic communities recognized by the African Union Commission (AUC) The eight regional economic communities recognized by AUC are: Arab Maghreb Union (UMA) - 5 members Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) – 19 members Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD) – 28 members East African Community (EAC) – 5 members Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) – 11 members Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) – 15 members Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) – 6 members Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) – 15 members

Table 6 – Share of total intra-African trade by country and economic groupingPossible uses • Tells us what percentage of the total import or exports of African countries and economic grouping are directed toward other African countries and regions. • The table is useful for analyzing the trends in the percentage of the total import or exports of African countries and economic grouping are directed toward other African countries and regions

Table 6 – Share of total intra-African trade by country and economic grouping - Questions for discussions • Do you think the table is relevant for the compendium? • Are the regional breakdowns useful for analysis? • What do you think of the presentation of the table? • Are these the most relevant ratios? • Would it have been useful to present also a graph for these data?

Table 7 – Total intra-African trade by country and other selected groupings Content and structure Content: The values are given in million US dollars It covers the years 2001 to 2010 Structure: It includes total intra-African trade data for the selected groupings that include MRU UEMAO CEPGL CEMAC IOC Petroleum exporting countries Sub-Saharan Africa Island countries Least developed countries Land locked countries

Table 7 – Total intra-African trade by country and other selected groupingsPossible uses • Give another view of the flows of imports and exports between African countries, this time with selected groupings. • The table is useful for monitoring and evaluating integration policies of different regions in Africa.

Table 7 – Total intra-African trade by country and other selected groupingsQuestions for discussions • Do you think the table is relevant for the compendium? • Are the regional breakdowns useful for analysis? • What do you think of the presentation of the table? • Are these other groups useful for analysis? • Should the table be expanded?

Table 8 – Total intra-African trade by SITC sections Contents • The values are given in thousand US dollars • It covers the years 2008 to 2010 and is per country • It provides data for those countries where actual data is available in COMTRADE DB • It covers total intra-African trade by the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) sections. There are ten sections in SITC, which include: • Food and Live Animals; • Beverages and Tobacco; • Crude Materials except Fuels; • Mineral Fuels; • Animal and Vegetable Oils and Fats; • Chemicals; • Manufactured Goods (sections 6 and 8); • Machinery and Transport Equipment • Total products

Table 8 – Total intra-African trade by SITC sections - Structure It includes data for a particular reporter country trading with all African countries that are members of ECA (53 countries) The countries are grouped into five sub-regions There are 7 countries in North Africa; 15 countries in West Africa; 7 countries in Central Africa; 13 countries in East Africa; and 11 countries in Southern Africa Total trade are provided for each sub-region and all Africa as well

Table 8 – Total intra-African trade by SITC sections – Possible uses • This is a detailed description of the exports and imports of a given country. It allows identifying the country’s main partners by product. • It is useful for companies to identify the best countries to target their exporting efforts. Companies can gauge the size of the market for their product and develop a price strategy to become competitive

Table 8 – Total intra-African trade by SITC sections - Questions for discussions • Do you think the table is relevant for the compendium? • Are the regional breakdowns useful for analysis? • What do you think of the presentation of the table? • Do you think the table is too detailed? • Are there too many years in the table?

Table 9 – Share of Africa in World tradeContent and structure Content: It is given in million US dollars and percentages It provides 15 years time series data (1996 – 2010) Structure It provides total trade data for the world and Africa, and the share of Africa from the world trade (percentages) Line graph is given to show the trend of share of African trade in the world

Table 9 – Share of Africa in World trade Possible uses • This table shows how Africa in integrated in the world trade and how this integration is evolving with time. • It is a good indicator for monitoring the global success of African trade policies.

Table 9 – Share of Africa in World tradeQuestions for discussions • Do you think the table is relevant for the compendium? • Are the regional breakdowns useful for analysis? • What do you think of the presentation of the table? • Do you think these are the right shares useful for analysis? • Do you think a graph would be useful to accompany the table?

Table 10 – Share of intra-African trade in total trade of Africa Content and structure Content: It is given in million US dollars and percentages It provides 15 years time series data (1996 – 2010) Structure: It provides total African trade data; intra-African trade; and the share of intra-African in total African trade (percentages) Line graph is given to show the trend of the share of intra-African trade in total African trade

Table 10 – Share of intra-African trade in total trade of AfricaPossible uses • This table shows how African trade is oriented toward other African countries or toward the rest of the world and how this situation is evolving with time. • The table also allows appreciating to which extent the different countries and regions in Africa are trading with other parts of Africa.

Table 10 – Share of intra-African trade in total trade of AfricaQuestions for discussions • Do you think the table is relevant for the compendium? • Are the regional breakdowns useful for analysis? • What do you think of the presentation of the table? • Do you think the series are too long? • Is the graph correct and easy to understand?

Table 11 – Direction of total trade of Africa by country and sub-regionContent and structure Content: The values are given in million U.S. dollars The years are for 2001 to 2010 The direction of trade is with developed market economies from America, Europe, Asia and Oceania; developing market economies from America, Europe, Asia and Oceania; and countries in Eastern Europe. Furthermore, the groupings include developed countries such as USA, Canada, Japan, European Union, E.F.T.A., etc Structure: It includes data for all African countries that are members of ECA (53 countries) The countries are grouped into five sub-regions There are 7 countries in North Africa; 15 countries in West Africa; 7 countries in Central Africa; 13 countries in East Africa; and 11 countries in Southern Africa Total trade are provided for each sub-region and all Africa as well

Table 11 – Direction of total trade of Africa by country and sub-regionPossible uses • This is a description of the commercial exchanges of Africa with different countries and regions of the world. • Allow assessing the diversification of exports of countries and regions. • Give an idea of the inter-dependencies between different parts of the continent.

Table 11 – Direction of total trade of Africa by country and sub-regionQuestions for discussions • Do you think the table is relevant for the compendium? • Are the regional breakdowns useful for analysis? • What do you think of the presentation of the table? • Are the chosen regions useful for analysis? • Would it have been useful to present the data as ratios?

Table 12 – Intra-African trade matrix by country and sub-regionContent and structure Content: The values are given in thousand U.S. dollars The years are from 2007 to 2010 The table provides intra-African data by country and sub-regions both as reporters and as partners Structure: It includes data for all African countries that are members of ECA (53 countries) The countries are grouped into five sub-regions There are 7 countries in North Africa; 15 countries in West Africa; 7 countries in Central Africa; 13 countries in East Africa; and 11 countries in Southern Africa Total trade are provided for each sub-region and all Africa as well

Table 12 – Intra-African trade matrix by country and sub-regionPossible uses • This is an analysis of the commercial exchanges between different parts of Africa. • Give an idea of the inter-dependencies between different parts of the continent.

Table 12 – Intra-African trade matrix by country and sub-region - Questions for discussions • Do you think the table is relevant for the compendium? • Are the regional breakdowns useful for analysis? • What do you think of the presentation of the table? • Would it have been useful to present the data in the form of ratios? • Would it have been useful to add a graph to this table?

Expert Group Meeting: Compendium on Intra-African and Related Foreign Trade Statistics