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Thoughts on Identifying and Prioritizing Reliability Risk Andy Rodriquez,

Thoughts on Identifying and Prioritizing Reliability Risk Andy Rodriquez, Director, Reliability Risk Analysis.

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Thoughts on Identifying and Prioritizing Reliability Risk Andy Rodriquez,

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  1. Thoughts on Identifying • and Prioritizing Reliability Risk • Andy Rodriquez, • Director, Reliability Risk Analysis

  2. GOAL OF THIS PRESENTATIONDISCUSSIONGET PEOPLE THINKING AND TALKINGThese ideas are probably not even close to the final answer. Please consider them a way to begin the conversation.

  3. Risk Identification • Look at ongoing Risk Management Activities * • Look at past Risk Management activities • Look at Event Analysis/Cause Coding • Analyze data and measures and seek out trends (e.g., the State of Reliability Report) • Research and forward thinking (e.g., the Long-Term Reliability Assessment, Special Assessments) • Brainstorming Exercises • Analyzing and modeling the Problem Domain * Primarily how we approached this problem in 2012/2013

  4. Risk Prioritization • Voting (consensus-based qualitative evaluation of risk) * • Consensus-based scoring model to produce a subjective estimate of risk for comparison • Quantitative analysis and modeling to produce a reasonable estimate of risk for comparison * Primarily how we approached this problem in 2012/2013

  5. Analyzing Risk

  6. Analyzing Risk

  7. Risk Prioritization • Voting (consensus-based qualitative evaluation of risk) * • Consensus-based scoring model to produce a subjective estimate of risk for comparison • Quantitative analysis and modeling to produce a reasonable estimate of risk for comparison * Primarily how we approached this problem in 2012

  8. Seven Dimensions of Reliability Risk TIME Monitoring and Control Capability Risks Resource Adequacy Risks Risk Magnifiers Restoration Capability Risks TX Capability Risks Resource Capability Risks TX Adequacy Risks Contributing Conditions Initiating and Contributing Events Exacerbating Conditions and Events Hindrances to Restoration Multiple risks in each box, each with a probability and consequence. All these combine and interact to create a pattern that can lead to an event with a unique set of characteristics (magnitude, duration, scope of physical damage, etc…).

  9. Translated into seven questions… • Does it… • negatively impact resource adequacy? • negatively impact transmission adequacy? • negatively impact the amount of supply available in real-time? • negatively impact the transmission available in real-time? • negatively impact the ability of operators to monitor or control the system? • make an event worse? • hinder restoration? Example of how we could answer and score • Yes = 3 Points • Probably = 2 Points • Maybe = 1 Points • No = 0 Points

  10. SRI Model SRI is a WEIGHTED IMPACT METRIC based on the loss of… LOAD Transmission Generation 60% 30% 10%

  11. Possible Weightings 4% • Does it negatively impact the amount of supply available in real-time? • Does it negatively impact resource adequacy? • Does it negatively impact the transmission available in real-time? • Does it negatively impact transmission adequacy? • Does it negatively impact the ability of operators to monitor or control the system? • Does it make an event worse? • Does it hinder restoration? 10% 6% 10% 30% 20% 20% 60% 20% 20%

  12. How this process might work: • Collect knowledge and information throughout the year • All Risk Areas evaluated by each RISC member by answering the seven questions • Each member’s responses scored, averaged with other member’s scores, then reviewed as first pass for prioritization • Discuss, rescore, and review as needed to achieve consensus • Recommended Priority Risk Areas approved by RISC in December, approved by the Board and published in February • Technical Committee liaisons requested to perform Analysis and Solution Design • Committees could use this or a similar model to help evaluate specific risks

  13. Some possible risk areas to consider RESTATED AND UPDATED • Long Term Planning and System Analysis • Resource and Transmission Adequacy • Integration of New Technologies and Operations • Cyber Attack • Human Error • Workforce Capability • Protection System Misoperations • Protection System Settings and Design • Special Protection Systems and Remedial Action Schemes • Monitoring and Situational Awareness • Operations Models and Modeling Data • Infrastructure Maintenance and Asset Management • Physical Attack • Energy Management Systems • Extreme Weather/Acts of Nature • Changing Regulations and Public Opinion • Market and Regulatory Influences 2013 RISC RISK AREAS • Adaptation and Planning for Change • Long Term Planning and System Analysis • Resource and Transmission Adequacy • Integration of New Technologies and Operations • Cyber Attack • Workforce Capability and Human Error • Protection Systems • Monitoring and Situational Awareness • Operations Modeling and Model Inputs • Equipment Maintenance and Management • Coordinated Attack on Multiple Facilities • Generator Availability • Geomagnetic Disturbance • Transmission Right of Way • Extreme Weather/Acts of Nature • Localized Physical Attack • Electromagnetic Pulse • Pandemic

  14. Questions and Discussion

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