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IIASA and US Highlights (2008-2014)

IIASA and US Highlights (2008-2014). March 2014. CONTENTS. Summary National Member Organization Some Leading US Personalities Associated with IIASA Research Partners Research Collaborations: Selected Highlights Capacity Building Selected New Projects Further Information .

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IIASA and US Highlights (2008-2014)

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  1. IIASA and US Highlights (2008-2014) March 2014

  2. CONTENTS • Summary • National Member Organization • Some Leading US Personalities Associated with IIASA • Research Partners • Research Collaborations: Selected Highlights • Capacity Building • Selected New Projects • Further Information

  3. SUMMARY (2008-2014)

  4. SUMMARY (2008-2014)

  5. SUMMARY (2008-2014)

  6. SUMMARY (2008-2014)

  7. SUMMARY (2008-2014)

  8. SUMMARY (2008-2014)

  9. SUMMARY (2008-2014)

  10. NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATION • National Academy of Sciences (NAS) • Professor Donald Saari, Director, Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences at the University of California, Irvine, is IIASA’s Council Member • US Committee for IIASA: • Professor Donald Saari (Chair), University of California, Irvine • Dr. Robert Corell, Global Environment and Technology Foundation • Dr. Peter Gleick, Pacific Institute • Dr. Brian O'Neill, National Center for Atmospheric Research • Professor Stephen Robinson, University of Wisconsin-Madison (Emeritus) • Dr. Barbara Boyle Torrey, National Institute of Aging, NIH • Dr. Elke Weber, Earth Institute, Columbia University • The NMO Secretary for the US is Kathie Bailey, Director, Board on International Scientific Organizations, NAS.

  11. SOME LEADING US PERSONALITIES FROM GOVERNMENT AND ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA McGeorgeBundy E. William Colglazier Steven Chu John P. Holdren Norman Neureiter Robert S. McNamara

  12. SOME LEADING US PERSONALITIES FROM ACADEMIA AND ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA Donella& Dennis L Meadows Nathan Keyfitz George Dantzig TjallingKoopmans William D. Nordhaus Thomas C. Schelling Jeffrey Sachs

  13. COLLABORATING, RESEARCH & FUNDING PARTNERS • 59 institutions in the US, including: • National Science Foundation (NSF) • White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) • US Department of State • US Department of Energy (DOE) • US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) • Harvard , Princeton, and Yale Universities • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) • National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) • Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) • Stanford University’s Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)

  14. RESEARCH COLLABORATIONS Selected Highlights: • Direct Sectoral Emissions • Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2000-2100 • Global Energy Assessment and the US • Tackling Black Carbon and Methane • Projecting Changing Population in the US • How Much Carbon does the World’s Forests Absorb? • Climate Change, Energy and Water Nexus • Security in the Age of Systemic Risk

  15. DIRECT SECTORAL EMISSIONS 2010 level Source: KreyV, Luderer G, Clarke L & Kriegler E (2013). Getting from here to there - Energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF27 scenarios. Climatic Change

  16. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS 2000-2100 • Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium includes IIASA & US partners: MESSAGE (IIASA) AIM (NIES) GCAM (PNNL) IMAGE (PBL) Source: van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Weyant, J. (eds) (2011). Special Issue: The Representative Concentration Pathways in Climatic Change. Climatic Change, 109(1-2). 16

  17. GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND THE US 17 Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA

  18. GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND THE US • 2009 to date: GEA provides critical input to UN Secretary-General’s Sustainable Energy For All Initiative including defining the aspirational yet feasible objectives: • Ensure universal access to modern energy services • Double the global rate of improvements in energy efficiency • Double the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix 18 Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA

  19. TACKLING BLACK CARBON AND METHANE GAINS identified 14 key air quality measures that if implemented could slow the pace of global warming, save millions of lives, and boost agricultural production. Global temperature 1900-2070 Reference scenario IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 CO2 measures IEA 450 ppm scenario 2009 Near-term measures IIASA set of 16 measures for CH4 and black carbon CO2 + Near-term measures • These 14 measures are • win (for air quality), • win (for near-term climate change) • win (for economic development). Source: Shindell et al., Science (2012) 335 no. 6065; p. 183-189

  20. TACKLING BLACK CARBON AND METHANE (2) • Feb 2012: US State Secretary Hillary Clinton launched the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short Lived Climate Pollutants • Today, CCAC has 33 member countries, 39 International Organizations and IIASA’s Markus Amann on scientific committee

  21. PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE US Comparing fertility among religions in the US Source: SkirbekkV, Kaufmann E & Goujon A (2010). Secularism, fundamentalism, or Catholicism? The religious composition of the United States to 2043. Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, 49(2):293-310 New ways to measure aging: Not on people’s chronological age but on remaining life expectancy, people’s health and cognitive function 65 years old in 1965 = 73.4 years old in 2007 Source: Sanderson, W. C. and Scherbov, S. (2013), The Characteristics Approach to the Measurement of Population Aging. Population and Development Review, 39: 673–685.

  22. PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE US

  23. PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE USSUSTAINABILITY

  24. PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE USSUSTAINABILITY

  25. PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE US

  26. PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE USFRAGMENTATION

  27. PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE USFRAGMENTATION

  28. HOW MUCH CARBON DOES THE WORLD’S FORESTS ABSORB? Source: Pan Y, Birdsey RA, Fang J, Houghton R, Kauppi PE, Kurz WA, Phillips OL, Shvidenko A, Lewis SL, Canadell JG, Ciais P, Jackson RB, Pacala SW, McGuire AD, Paio S, Rautiainen A, Sitch S & Hayes D (2011). A large and persistent carbon sink in the world's forests. Science, 333(6045):988-993

  29. CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY & WATER NEXUS Decrease in thermoelectric power generating capacity due to lack of cooling-water Source: van Vliet MTH, Yearsley JR, Ludwig F, Vögele S, Lettenmaier DP & Kabat P (2012). Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change. Nature Climate Change.

  30. SECURITY IN THE AGE OF SYSTEMIC RISK • This workshop explored applying approaches used by natural scientists to model uncontrollable events such as epidemics to explore the threats posed by small-scale dangers in today’s societies that could pose asymmetrically catastrophic risks (workshop at IIASA organized by Professor Simon Levin) • IIASA as a meeting place for international and interdisciplinary dialog and research (c. 100 events a year).

  31. CAPACITY BUILDING 68 US citizens won places on IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) between 2008 and 2013

  32. POSTDOCTORAL FELLOWS • Carl Salk (2013 to present): Using IIASA’s Geo-wiki crowd sourcing tool to generate better land cover maps. (8 journal articles) • Wei Liu (2012 to present): How changing land use affects ecosystem service provision and natural hazard vulnerability in Wolong Nature Reserve in China. (1 journal article) • Narasimha Rao (2011-2013): Relationship between electricity access, livelihoods and carbon dioxide emissions in India. (7 journal articles) • Jose Siri (2009-2011): How urbanization affects the transmission of mosquito-borne disease. (8 journal articles)

  33. SELECTED NEW PROJECTS • Shale Gas – A Possible Bridge toward Sustainable Energy Futures? • Arctic Flagship Project • Eurasian Economic Integration

  34. ESTIMATED SHALE GAS RESOURCE → 100 yr of current gas use → 900GtCO2 14,803 TCF ≈ 15 ZJ

  35. SURFACE CONCENTRATIONS OF BLACK CARBON IN THE ARCTIC Source: Stohl, A., Klimont, Z., Eckhardt, S., Kupiainen, K., Shevchenko, V. P., Kopeikin, V. M., and Novigatsky, A. N. 2013. Black carbon in the Arctic: the underestimated role of gas flaring and residential combustion emissions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 8833-8855

  36. EURASIAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION • Analyze the challenges and benefits of greater economic integration between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan • Explore future collaboration between Ukraine, Russia and EU • Study scenarios of Eurasian integration from Shanghai to Lisbon, its global integration, and future roles of key players including China, EU, Japan and Russia • Partners include: • Administration of the President of the Russian Federation, • Russian Academy of Sciences, • Eurasian Development Bank, • Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies

  37. FURTHER INFORMATION IIASA and the US www.iiasa.ac.at/usa National Academy of Sciences http://sites.nationalacademies.org/PGA/biso/IIASA/index.htm KBailey@nas.edu

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