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2005 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast

2005 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast. May 2005 Ethan E. Haase COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group. Introduction. COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast Updated annually since 1993 Methodology is consistent over time, with ongoing enhancements to final product

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2005 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast

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  1. 2005 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast May 2005 Ethan E. Haase COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group

  2. Introduction • COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast • Updated annually since 1993 • Methodology is consistent over time, with ongoing enhancements to final product • 10-year forecast horizon (2005-2014) • Average annual demand is similar to 2004 forecast • 20.5 satellites per year vs. 21.1 satellites in 2004 forecast • 2005 Report presents updates on: • Estimate of “realization” of forecast demand • Growth in satellite mass and transponders per satellite • Respondents’ views on factors affecting demand • Industry developments that may affect demand

  3. 2005 Mission Model Panel Ethan Haase (panel chair) Lockheed Martin / International Launch Services Alexander Liang (T&IWG chair) Aerospace Corporation I-Shih Chang Aerospace Corporation Lisa Hague Boeing Launch Services Doug Howe Boeing Space and Communications David Keslow Orbital Sciences Corporation Debra Lepore Kistler Aerospace Corporation Jennifer Miceli Tecolote Research / USAF/SMC/MV Dave Pollock Rocketdyne Kathy Shockey Space Systems / Loral John Sloan FAA AST

  4. Forecast Methodology • Request 10-year projection of GSO satellites launched from satellite operators, manufacturers, and launch service providers worldwide • Individual demand requirements from operators • Comprehensive market inputs from manufacturers and launch providers • Projections by mass class • Develop Near-Term (2005-2007) Mission Model • “Bottom-up” forecast of launch opportunities by name • Consensus forecast based on most recent information • Individual inputs from operators used as available • Timing and likelihood of new opportunities agreed upon by panel • Develop Long-Term (2008-2014) Forecast • Average of comprehensive domestic forecasts by mass categories • Only “addressable” commercial GSO satellites included • Addressable satellites are defined as those open for internationally competitive launch service procurement

  5. 2005 Survey • Individual and comprehensive GSO inputs for 2005-2014 • 26 survey responses received • 6 U.S. domestic companies provided comprehensive inputs • 3 international manufacturers / launch service providers submitted comprehensive inputs • Questionnaire on factors affecting market demand • 15 companies also responded to questions on how various factors affected their plans to procure new satellites • Responses compared to 2004 indicate shifts in views on the state of the market

  6. 2005 Survey Respondents • Alcatel (France) • Arianespace (France) • Asia Satellite Telecommunications, Ltd. (China – Hong Kong)+ • The Boeing Company* (U.S.) • Broadcasting Satellite System Corp. (Japan)+ • Intelsat (U.S.)+ • JSAT Corporation (Japan) • Kistler* (U.S.) • Lockheed Martin Space Systems Co.* (U.S.) • Loral Skynet (U.S.)+ • MEASAT (Malaysia)+ • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan) • Mobile Broadcasting Corporation (Japan)+ • Mobile Satellite Ventures (U.S.)+ • New Skies Satellites (Netherlands) + • Orbital Sciences Corp.* (U.S.) • Satmex (Mexico)+ • Sea Launch* (U.S.) • SES Americom (U.S.)+ • SES Astra (Luxembourg)+ • Sirius Satellite Radio (U.S.)+ • Space Communications Corporation (Japan)+ • Space Systems/Loral* (U.S.) • Spacecom (Israel)+ • Telesat Canada+ • Thuraya Telecommunications (U.A.E)+ + = Provided input on factors affecting demand * = Provided comprehensive input

  7. 2005 COMSTAC Commercial GSO Satellite and Launch Demand Forecast

  8. “Realization” of Demand • The COMSTAC GSO Forecast projects demand for launches of satellites • Several factors can affect the execution of a scheduled launch in a given year, including: • Launch failures • Launch vehicle delays • Manifesting delays • One or more of these factors have delayed missions each year that the COMSTAC forecast of identified demand has been presented • Manufacturing delays • Satellite component issues • Regulatory delays

  9. Forecasted Demand vs. Realization • 2004 GSO Report forecasted demand of 20 satellites to be launched in 2004 • 13 commercial GSO satellites were launched in 2004 • 6 satellites were delayed due to satellite issues • 2 satellites were delayed due to launch vehicle issues • 1 satellite projected for 2005 launched early • To give guidance on the number of satellites expected to be launched, the GSO forecast report includes a historically-based “realization factor” • Estimate of actual satellites launched introduced in 2002 report • Expected realization for 2004 was estimated at between 12 and 17 satellites launched • Methodology has evolved to present realization factor for the first two years of the forecast

  10. 2005 GSO Demand Forecast and Realization • Expected realization is based on historical analysis of difference between demand forecast and actual satellites launched • 2005 expected realization = 13-19 satellites (historical 1st year variance of 13% to 42%) • 2006 expected realization = 10-20 satellites (historical 2nd year variance of 10% to 55%)

  11. Historical Demand Forecast Comparison • 2005 10-year average about the same as last year’s forecast • 2005 forecast higher in near-term, lower in out-years

  12. Spacecraft Trends: Transponders • The average commercial GSO satellite carried almost 42% more transponders in 2002 that it did in 1997 • Total transponders launched is projected to increase from 2004 to 2005, due mainly to the shift of several large satellites to 2005 • The average satellite will carry fewer transponders in 2005 than in 2004, yet still more than the 2000-2003 average

  13. Spacecraft Trends: Mass • Average satellite mass continues to increase; the typical commercial GSO satellite now has a launch mass of over 4,000kg • Total mass launched projected to jump in 2005 due to the launch of several very large satellites

  14. Spacecraft Trends: Forecast by Mass • 2005 forecast indicates growth in average satellite mass will continue • Satellites in the 4,200kg to 5,400kg range increase from 7.0 per year in last year’s forecast to 8.1 per year • Satellites in the below 2,200kg category fell from 4.1 per year to 2.7 per year

  15. International Input Comparison • 3 international companies provided comprehensive forecast inputs (Arianespace, Alcatel, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries) • The average 10-year demand forecast projection from the international inputs was nearly the same as the 2005 GSO demand forecast • One significant difference between the GSO demand forecast and the international inputs • International inputs projected more satellites in the 2,200kg to 4,200kg range than the 4,200kg to 5,400kg range

  16. Factors Affecting Demand • Economic and market conditions worldwide continue to be challenging… • Capacity oversupply continues in some markets • Financing for new ventures heavily scrutinized • …But with signs of improvement: Results comparison: 2004 & 2005 COMSTAC supplemental questionnaire

  17. Factors Affecting Demand • Rollout of new services • Ka-band systems providing HDTV and broadband services are rolling out in 2005 (e.g. DIRECTV; Wildblue) • Their success will determine future growth prospects in this segment • Private Equity buy-ins • Over the last few years, Private Equity firms have purchased stakes in many of the world’s major satellite operators • e.g. Inmarsat, Intelsat, PanAmSat, Eutelsat • The effect of the business plans of these new owners has yet to be fully seen, but their strategies will have a substantial impact on future satellite demand

  18. COMSTAC Launch Demand Model Feedback • The 2004 and 2005 surveys included a feedback form for contributors to inform Working Group what is useful in the report • 2004 Feedback • Most companies use the report for market/business planning • Many respondents asked for easier report availability • Action: FAA AST and the Working Group will electronically distribute the report to respondents • 2005 Feedback • Different companies found various parts of the report to be most useful • Majority of respondents find the addition of the “realization factor” and the transponder & mass history charts useful

  19. Summary of Findings • 2005 COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast • Average satellite demand 2005-2014 = 20.5 per year • Near-term demand is 22 in 2005, 22 in 2006, and 19 in 2007 • Expected realization is 13 to 19 satellites launched in 2005 • Average transponders per satellite and average satellite mass continue to increase • Compared to last year’s forecast, the 2005 forecast includes fewer satellites below 2,200kg and more satellites between 4,200kg and 5,400kg • Economic and market conditions continue to be challenging, with some improvement being seen • The success of new broadband services and the strategies of new owners should have significant impact on demand in the coming years

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