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2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast

2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast. May 2004 David Pollock The Boeing Company. Introduction. COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast Updated annually since 1993 Methodology is consistent over time, with ongoing enhancements 10-year forecast horizon (2004-2013)

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2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast

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  1. 2004 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast May 2004 David Pollock The Boeing Company

  2. Introduction • COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast • Updated annually since 1993 • Methodology is consistent over time, with ongoing enhancements • 10-year forecast horizon (2004-2013) • Total demand is lower than the 2003 forecast • 211 satellites vs. 233 satellites in 2003 forecast (9% lower) • 2004 report offers some new insights into industry trends: • Estimate of “realization” of demand expanded to first three years of the forecast • Analysis of growth in satellite mass and transponders per satellite presented • Respondents’ views on factors affecting demand discussed

  3. 2003 GSO Demand Forecast Team Alexander Liang (T&IWG chair) Aerospace Corporation David Pollock (forecast chair) Boeing Rocketdyne Darren Chambo Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company I-Shih Chang Aerospace Corporation Gary Goodwin Sea Launch Ethan Haase Lockheed Martin / International Launch Services Lisa Hague Boeing Launch Services B. Ray Hawkins Aerospace Corporation Bill Hayes Space Systems / Loral Joe Hopkins Consultant Doug Howe Boeing Satellite Systems Mike Izzo Asia Pacific Space Center Debra Lepore Kistler Aerospace Corporation Jennifer Miceli Tecolote Research / USAF/SMC/EV John Sloan FAA AST

  4. Forecast Methodology • Request 10-year projection of GSO satellites launched from satellite operators, manufacturers, and launch service providers worldwide • Individual demand requirements from operators • Comprehensive market inputs from manufacturers and launch providers • Projections by mass class • Develop Near-Term (2004-2006) Mission Model • “Bottom-up” forecast of launch opportunities by name • Consensus forecast based on most recent information • Individual inputs from operators used as available • Timing and likelihood of new opportunities agreed upon by panel • Develop Long-Term (2007-2013) Forecast • Average of comprehensive domestic forecasts by mass categories • Only “addressable” commercial GSO satellites included • Addressable satellites are defined as those open for internationally competitive launch service procurement • Historical launches occasionally restated if necessary

  5. 2004 Survey • Individual and comprehensive GSO inputs for 2004-2013 • 26 survey responses received (two less than 2003) • 4 U.S. domestic companies provided comprehensive input • Survey of Factors Affecting Market Demand • 16 companies also responded to questions on how various factors affected their plans to procure new satellites • Response categories updated from 2003 questionnaire to broaden understanding of respondents’ opinions

  6. 2004 Survey Respondents • AirTV (U.S.)+ • Alcatel Space • Arianespace (France) • AsiaSat (China/Hong Kong)+ • Astrium (France) • Binariang Satellite Systems (Malaysia)+ • The Boeing Company* (U.S.) • DirecTV (U.S.)+ • Inmarsat (U.K.)+ • Intelsat (U.S.)+ • JSAT Corporation (Japan) • Kistler* (U.S.) • KT Corporation (South Korea)+ • Lockheed Martin Space Systems Co.* (U.S.) • Loral Skynet (U.S.)+ • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan) • Mobile Broadcasting Corporation (Japan)+ • Mobile Satellite Ventures (U.S.)+ • New Skies Satellites (Netherlands)+ • Orbital Sciences Corp. (U.S.) • PanAmSat (U.S.)+ • Satmex (Mexico)+ • Space Communications Corporation (Japan)+ • Space Systems/Loral* (U.S.) • Telesat Canada+ • Thuraya Telecommunications (U.A.E)+ + = Provided input on factors affecting demand * = Provided comprehensive input

  7. 2004 Commercial GSO Forecast

  8. 2003 Forecasted Demand vs. Realization • Anticipated 2003 GSO demand was 22 satellites • Expected realization was 13 to 19 satellites • 14 launched and one accelerated from 2003, therefore • 15 commercial GSO satellites were launched in 2003 • Of the 8 anticipated but not launched: • 6 satellites were delayed due to satellite issues • 1 satellite was delayed due to issues related to both the satellite and the launch vehicle • 1 satellite was delayed due to regulatory issues (export control)

  9. 2004 COMSTAC Commercial GSO Demand Forecast and Probable Realization Realization bands are correctly bracketing actual launch experience

  10. 2004 Commercial GSO Satellite and Launch Demand Forecast

  11. Commercial GSO Near-Term Mission Model As of April 28, 2004

  12. Forecast Trends in Mass Distribution Forecast demand is lower in all weight classes, but the biggest drop was in the large 5,400kg+ class (from 51 to 35 over 10 years)

  13. GSO C/Ku/Ka Transponders Launched Growth trend in transponders-per-satellite is expected to recover in 2004

  14. GSO Satellite Mass Launched Average satellite mass growth is expected to continue in 2004

  15. Historical Demand Forecast Comparison 2004 forecast demand is 9% lower than the 2003 forecast

  16. Demand History and Forecast Summary

  17. Factors Affecting Demand • Global and regional economic conditions • Improving but with regional differences • New ventures still face extreme scrutiny • Transponder over-capacity has driven pricing down • New market applications • Direct-to-home applications are driving demand growth • Ka-band satellites are becoming a mainstay • High-speed terrestrial services • Significant fiber-optic cable bandwidth capacity in market • May lower demand for satellite-based data transfer • Data compression technology • Regulatory environment • New space hardware

  18. Summary of Findings • 2004 COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast • Average satellite demand 2004-2013 = 21.1 per year • Near-term demand is 20 in 2004, 22 in 2005, and 16 in 2006 • Expected realization: • 12-17 satellites in 2004 • 16-20 satellites in 2005 • 12-14 satellites in 2006 • Average annual demand is down 9% • Transponders-per-satellite and mass-per-satellite launched continue to grow • Economic conditions and availability of financing continue to have a negative effect on market demand

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