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Factors affecting student dropout and graduation rates at UKZN

Factors affecting student dropout and graduation rates at UKZN. Michael Murray, Delia North & Temesgen Zewotir University of KwaZuluNatal. Good research is not so much about giving the right answers, but rather about asking the right questions. Outline of talk.

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Factors affecting student dropout and graduation rates at UKZN

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  1. Factors affecting student dropout and graduation rates at UKZN Michael Murray, Delia North & TemesgenZewotir University of KwaZuluNatal Good research is not so much about giving the right answers, but rather about asking the right questions

  2. Outline of talk • Define the response variables that are of interest • Link these response variables to a set of student based covariates • Science Faculty • Faculty of Humanities, Development and Social Sciences • Faculty of Education

  3. The Data Set • Yes/No response to 4 possible outcomes:- Eventually graduated, academic exclusion, voluntary dropout, still studying • Time to event:- Number of credits failed along the way [1 credit point=10 notional hours of study] • Covariates:- Indicator variables for being Male, White, Indian, African, Receiving financial aid, Staying in residence Number of Matric points English and Mathsmatric mark

  4. Questions • What probability can we attach to an Indian female with a total matric point score of 36 points eventually graduating?----- Yes/No response=>multinomial or logistic regression • How many extra credit points will she need to take in order to eventually graduate? ------time to event study =>competing risks model

  5. Science Faculty

  6. Total number of credit points failed

  7. Those that have eventually graduated

  8. Academic exclusion vs Voluntary dropout

  9. Matricpoint scores

  10. Academic exclusion vs Voluntary dropout (Matric Points)

  11. Time to event study P(T>t|x) Still studying Graduated Hazard rate

  12. T=time to event that is of interest

  13. Male: x = 1 Female: x = 0

  14. Matric points:- x = y+1 vs x=y

  15. Eventual graduationP(T≤t|Matric Score) Lower MPC value survives longer => higher MPC value produces a `quicker’ time to eventual graduation

  16. Eventual graduation

  17. Competing risks analysis CIF P(T≤t,C=1) Eventual graduation hazard Academic exclusion P(T≤t,C=2) Still studying hazard hazard Voluntary dropout P(T≤t,C=3)

  18. Academic exclusion P(T≤t,C=2|Matric Score=x) Higher MPC value survives longer => lower MPC value produces a quicker academic exclusion time

  19. Academic exclusion

  20. Voluntary dropout P(T≤t,C=3|Matric Score=x) Higher MPC value survives longer => lower MPC value produces a quicker voluntary dropout time

  21. Voluntary dropout

  22. Including more covariatesEventual graduation

  23. Conclusions The following variables have SHR’s greater than one which imply that they increase the probability of eventual graduation before a fixed `time’ point t:- White, Matric points, Financial aid The following variables decrease the probability of eventual graduation before this fixed `time’ point t :- Male, Matric English, MatricMaths

  24. Academic exclusion

  25. Conclusions For fixed t the following variables increase the probability of academic exclusion before this fixed `time’ point t:- Male, Residence decrease the value of the above CIF:- White, Matric English, MatricMaths, Matric points, Financial aid

  26. Voluntary dropout

  27. Conclusions For fixed t the following variables increase the probability of voluntary dropout before this fixed `time’ point t:- Male decrease the value of the above CIF:- Matric points, Financial aid, Residence

  28. Academic exclusion vs Voluntary dropout

  29. Faculty of Humanities, Development and Social Sciences

  30. Matric point scores

  31. Eventual Graduation (Matric Points)

  32. Academic exclusion vs Voluntary dropout (Matric Points)

  33. Time to event study

  34. Have eventually graduated

  35. Academic exclusion vs Voluntary dropout

  36. Eventual Graduation

  37. Academic exclusion

  38. Voluntary dropout

  39. Academic exclusion vs Voluntary dropout

  40. Faculty of Education

  41. Matric point scores

  42. Eventual Graduation (Matric Points)

  43. Academic exclusion vs Voluntary dropout (Matric Points)

  44. Faculty of Education

  45. Have eventually graduated

  46. Academic exclusion vs Voluntary dropout

  47. Education-Eventual Graduation

  48. Education-Academic Exclusion

  49. Education-Voluntary Dropout

  50. Academic exclusion vs Voluntary dropout

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