Graduation, Completion, and Dropout Counts and Rates Tracking Student Cohorts in MSIS

1. Graduation, Completion, and Dropout Counts and RatesTracking Student Cohorts in MSIS November 1, 2006 Office of Research and Statistics Mississippi Department of Education

2. Different Assumptions, Data, Calculations= Different Mississippi Graduation Rates • 58.0% – Urban Institute (CIP Index) calculation for 2004 • 60.0% – Manhattan Institute (Green Method) calculation for 2002 • 62.7% – NCES (Averaged Freshman Graduation Rate Method) calculation for 2004 • 83.7% – MDE (Traditional Calculation Method) for 2004 • 85.1% – MDE (Traditional Calculation Method) for 2005 • ??? – 2005 graduation rate calculated by tracking a cohort of individual students in MSIS

3. Tracking Student Cohorts in MSIS

4. Establishing a “Full” 9-12 Cohort • Start with students entering 9th grade for the first time at the beginning of the starting year for the cohort. • Add students entering as 9th graders during the rest of that school year. • Add students entering as 10th graders the second year. • Add students entering as 11th graders the third year. • Add students entering as 12th graders the fourth year. Note: Self-contained special education students enter the cohort based on peer grade (using student’s age).

5. Student Transfers Out of the Cohort • Identify reason for the student transfer. • Code the student appropriately in MSIS. • Valid transfers out of the cohort include • Transfer to a private school in Mississippi • Transfer to a home school situation in Mississippi • Transfer to an approved community based GED program • Transfer to a school out of state or in another country • Student death is handled the same as a transfer out. Note: Students coded as valid transfers outside Mississippi public schools are removed from the cohort. Those transferring within Mississippi are simply reported at the new school district.

6. Dropouts • Identify reason the student dropped out. • Code the student appropriately in MSIS. • There are several codes for denoting dropout reason. • Currently, students transferring to a non-approved community-based GED program must be coded as dropouts. Note: Students coded as dropouts are not removed from the cohort. However, if a student returns to school anywhere in Mississippi, the student is reported at the new school district and the original dropout code is ignored.

7. Dropout Denominator • Begin with the full cohort N-count. • Subtract transfers out and deaths. • Divide the number of dropouts by this denominator to determine the dropout rate.

8. Completion/Graduation Denominator • Begin with the full cohort N-count. • Subtract transfers out and deaths. • Subtract certain special education students who are expected to take longer to complete. • Divide the number of completers by this denominator to determine the completion rate. • Divide the number of graduates by this denominator to determine the graduation rate.

9. Some Estimation Is Required • Since there are currently some cohort students with unknown final dispositions, they had to be statistically apportioned into estimated transfers and dropouts. • Therefore, the calculated dropout, completion, and graduation rates are estimates. • An analysis of the 4-year dropout, completion, and graduation estimates indicated that the values are accurate to within approximately +/- 5%.

10. Who Counts as a Graduate? • Students earning traditional diplomas are graduates. • Special Education students earning occupational diplomas are graduates. • Special Education students earning certificates of attendance are not graduates, but they are counted as completers. • Students earning a GED from a district program are not graduates, but they are counted as completers. • Students earning a GED from another kind of program cannot currently be coded as completers in MSIS, but that issue is being explored.

11. 4-Year Estimates for the Cohort • The 4-year dropout rate estimate for the full cohort beginning with 9th graders in 2001-2002 is 26.6%. Note: Tracking a 7-12 student cohort will not be possible until final data are available from the 2006/2007 school year. • The 4-year completion rate estimate for the full cohort beginning with 9th graders in 2001-2002 is 67.0%. Note: Students still enrolled in school at the end of 2004-2005 are neither dropouts nor completers in the 4-year rate estimates. • The 4-year graduation rate estimate for the full cohort beginning with 9th graders in 2001-2002 is 61.1%.

12. Preliminary 5-Year Estimates Based on data from the 2005-2006 school year without summer 2006 activity included… • The preliminary 5-year dropout rate estimate for the full cohort beginning with 9th graders in 2001-2002 is 27.7%. • The preliminary 5-year completion rate estimate for the full cohort beginning with 9th graders in 2001-2002 is 69.8%. Note: There were about 1000 cohort students still enrolled in school at the end of 2005-2006. • The preliminary 5-year graduation rate estimate for the full cohort beginning with 9th graders in 2001-2002 is 63.0%.

13. References • Graduation Counts (July 2005) Task Force on State High School Graduation Data, National Governors Association Center on Best Practices [www.nga.org/Center] • Mississippi Cohort Dropout and Graduation Rate Estimates (Aug. 2005) Office of Research and Statistics, Mississippi Department of Education • A Procedure for Tracking a Full Cohort in MSIS (July 2006) Office of Research and Statistics, Mississippi Department of Education • Implementing the NGA Graduation Rate Compact: State-level Issues (Oct. 2006) Council of Chief State School Officers [www.ccsso.org] • Estimated Graduation, Completion, and Dropout Counts and Rates Based on Procedures for Tracking a Cohort of Students (Oct. 2006) Office of Research and Statistics, Mississippi Department of Education

14. On the Web The reports listed on the last slide and additional information on dropout, completion, and graduation data issues can be accessed from the Mississippi Assessment and Accountability Reporting System (MAARS) http://ORSAP.mde.k12.ms.us:8080/MAARS Select the Reports option from the Main Menu