In the Shadow of Malthus

1. In the Shadow of Malthus J. Bradford DeLong UC Berkeley

2. Required Readings • Rick Steckel (2008), "Biological Measures of the Standard of Living", Journal of Economic Perspectives 22:1 (Winter), pp. 129-52 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.22.1.129 • Thomas Malthus (1798), An Essay on the Principle of Population, Chapters 1-2, pp.1-11, Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project, 1998. http://www.esp.org/books/malthus/population/malthus.pdf • Gregory Clark (2007), A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World, Chapter 2, “The Logic of the Malthusian Economy,” pp. 19-39 and Chapter 3, “Living Standards,” pp. 40-70. Princeton: Princeton University Press. On reserve at Graduate Services. An earlier draft (not preferred) is available at http://tinyurl.com/dl20090112e (chapter 2) and http://tinyurl.com/dl20090112j (chapter 3)

3. Richard H. Steckel (2008), "Biological Measures of the Standard of Living” • When economists investigate long-term trends and socioeconomic differences in the standard of living or quality of life, they have traditionally focused on monetary measures such as gross domestic product -- which has occupied center stage for over 50 years. In recent decades, however, scholars have increasingly recognized the limitations of monetary measures while seeking useful alternatives. This essay examines the unique and valuable contributions of four biological measures -- life expectancy, morbidity, stature, and certain features of skeletal remains -- to understand levels and changes in human well-being. People desire far more than material goods and in fact they are quite willing to trade or give up material things in return for better physical or psychological health. For most people, health is so important to their quality of life that it is useful to refer to the "biological standard of living." Biological measures may be especially valuable for historical studies and for other research circumstances where monetary measures are thin or lacking. A concluding section ruminates on the future evolution of biological approaches in measuring happiness.

4. The Coming of Agriculture

5. Agricultural Plantation Slavery

6. Health and Wealth

7. Demography Before Modern Economic Growth

8. What Does It Mean for a Human Population to Grow at Only 1%/Generation? • A hunter-gatherer population? • An agricultural population? • An industrial/post-industrial population?

9. Nasty, Brutish, and Short • The phrase is Thomas Hobbes’s • Modern standard of living is worth 10 cm. • Practically every non-aristo skeleton from our agrarian past is really short • Exceptions: fish eaters • Exceptions: Souix • Exceptions: Hunter-gatherers • What does being 10 cm. shorter do to brain development?

10. Demography Before and During Modern Economic Growth

11. Thomas Malthus (1798), An Essay on the Principle of Population • “Let us imagine for a moment Mr. Godwin's beautiful system of equality realized in its utmost purity…” • William Godwin, Enquiry Concerning Political Justice • Marie Jean Antoine Nicolas de Caritat, Marquis de Condorcet, Sketch for a Historical Picture of the Progress of the Human Mind • Demography pins the standard of living to “subsistence” as long as technological progress is “slow” • G.W.F. Hegel: “die Eule der Minerva beginnt erst mit der einbrechenden Dämmerung ihren Flug” • “The owl of Minerva flies only at dusk”

12. Gregory Clark: “The Logic of the Malthusian Economy” and “Living Standards” • A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World, chapters 2 and 3 • “From 1340 to 1680 the population of the major European countries actually fell slightly… the average number of surviving children per woman… ranged from 1.90 in the Netherlands to 1.99 in France…” • Figure 6 live births per adult woman…

13. Living Standards Across Time and Space from Clark (2007)

14. Direct Estimates of Long-Run Real Wage Trends • We know what monks paid their construction workers. • We know what bread and other staples cost. • Questions about whether these workers are in any sense representative

15. A Malthusian Economy? When and Why? • We are not terribly unhappy with our population estimates. • We are unhappy with our estimates of modern economic growth • But the thing itself exists • And before MEG there must have been living standard stagnation • Those together imply the picture that we have.

16. Malthus’s Policy Recommendations • All of the action is in Csub, therefore... • Delaying the start of sexual activity humanity’s only chance: • Patriarchy • Theocracy • Monarchy • a most disheartening reflection that the great obstacle in the way to any extraordinary improvement in society is of a nature that we can never hope to overcome..... Yet, discouraging as the contemplation of this difficulty must be to those whose exertions are laudably directed to the improvement of the human species, it is evident that no possible good can arise from any endeavours to slur it over or keep it in the background. • On the contrary, the most baleful mischiefs may be expected from the unmanly conduct of not daring to face truth because it is unpleasing.... [I]f we unwisely direct our efforts towards an object in which we cannot hope for success, we shall not only exhaust our strength in fruitless exertions and remain at as great a distance as ever from the summit of our wishes, but we shall be perpetually crushed by the recoil of this rock of Sisyphus...

17. Malthus’s Theory • A pretty good theory as of 1800... • Not at all a good theory as of 1850... • An absolutely lousy theory as of today... • Or is it?