CBMPO Regional Travel Demand Model 2019 Update

1. CBMPO Regional Travel Demand Model 2019 Update Presented by Habte Kassa Technical Services & Air Quality Branch Chief GDOT- Office of Planning 404.631.1797 / hkassa@dot.ga.gov Technical Coordinating Committee Meeting June 19, 2019

2. Background • Federal legislation requires Long-Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) updates every four to five years • The LRTP covers a minimum 20-year planning horizon with fiscal constraint • The next LRTP must be adopted by February 2, 2020 • MAP-21 / FAST Act encourage performance-based approach

3. What is a Travel Demand Model and its Purpose • State-of-the-art analysis tool • To replicate the existing travel demand • To forecast future travel demand • To identify transportation network deficiencies and prioritize projects.

4. Cartersville Modeling and MPO Area

5. Travel Demand Model Major Activities

6. 2015 Model Inputs

7. 2015Highway Network Source: GDOT 2015 Functional Classification data GDOT 2015 RC data MPO review

8. 2015Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) Total Number of TAZs: • Model Area: 215

9. Socio-economic Data Provided by MPO Staff 29% 26% 63% 4% % Growth (K-12 + College)

10. Base Year Model Outputs Model Validation Results

11. 2015 Model Validation Model Highway Mileage & Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) by Facility Type (1) 2015 GDOT VMT – GDOT Mileage by Route and Road System Report 445. http://www.dot.ga.gov/DriveSmart/Data/Documents/400%20Series/445/DPP445_2015.pdf

12. Traffic Counts vs. Modeled Volume R-squared = 0.95 Recommended target R-squared = 0.88 Source: Model Validation and Reasonableness Checking Manual, Second Edition, FHWA, 2010

13. Modeled Volume Maximum Deviation

14. Screenline & Cutline Validation

15. Screenline Validation

16. Cutline Validation

17. 2015 Total Daily Traffic Volumes Note: Total volume for both direction

18. Level of Service (LOS) • Based on 2016 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) methodology • LOS was derived using the Travel Demand Model • LOS compares volumes along the roadway to the capacity of that roadway

19. 2015 Daily Level of Service (LOS)

20. Future YearModel Outputs

21. 2050 LRTP Scenarios • Do-Nothing • Existing + Committed • Completion of STIP/TIP system projects • Long Range Transportation Plan system projects • Financially Constrained Plan

22. 2050 “Do-Nothing” Total Daily Traffic Volumes Note: Total volume for both direction

23. 2050 “Do-Nothing” Level of Service (LOS)

24. 2040 “Do-Nothing” Level of Service (LOS) Results obtained from last LRTP models, for comparison purpose.

25. Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) by Facility Type 66% ↑ 36% ↑ Collector 31% ↑ Minor Arterial Principal Arterial 35% ↑ Interstate

26. Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) by Level of Service 35% 0.5% 14.3% 18% 34.2% 20% 51% 27%

27. Daily Vehicle Hours of Travel (VHT) by Facility Type 99% ↑ 87% ↑ 82% ↑ Collector Minor Arterial 169% ↑ Principal Arterial Expressway

28. Next Steps • MPO provides project list for remaining scenarios • Evaluate remaining future year LRTP scenarios • Analyze system performance • Provide outputs to MPO planners to prioritize projects

29. THANK YOU Questions ?