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CBRFC Distributed Modeling Efforts

Explore the cutting-edge distributed modeling efforts by Ed Clark and Kevin Werner, including real-time grid forecasts for soil moisture and surface responses. Collaborative studies with CBRFC and innovative methodologies like Mountain Mapper and RDHM are utilized for accurate basin outlet point time series display and probabilistic surface response grids. The system is further extended into the Upper Colorado region, showcasing improved basin time series input techniques for better model performance evaluation. Learn about Sac-HT soil moisture grids and operational probabilistic surface response concepts for enhanced river forecasting.

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CBRFC Distributed Modeling Efforts

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  1. CBRFC Distributed Modeling Efforts Ed Clark Kevin Werner – SCH (presenting)

  2. Current Applications • Basin outlet point time series display in IFP. • Experimental Soil moisture forecast grids. • Probabilistic Surface Response grids. • Extension into the Upper Colorado and collaborative updating methodology study with Rti and NOHRCS.

  3. QPF • QPF point guidance from HPC, modified by the Forecaster as necessary within Mountain Mapper (MM). • Mountain Mapper grids are converted to 6-hourly cumulative xmrg’s. • 6-hour future xmrg’s are disaggregated within RDHM (v2.4.1.) using uniform disaggregation

  4. Time-Series within IFP Rfs_RDHM: edits start, end, and switch time. Runs RDHM with updated card Basin Outlet Time Series Input Card Ts2shef: reformat to SHEF and run SHEF parse/ post IFP: Daily observation of Model Performance. SwitchTS mod when applicable.

  5. Cienega Creek, AZ – Low Flow Event

  6. Sabino Canyon, AZ – High Flow Event

  7. Sac-HT Soil Moisture Grids • Sac-HT generates Fractional Water Content ( Vw/Vs ) grids at user specified depth (5, 10, 20, 50, 100 cm). • Based on QPE and 10 days of QPF. • CBRFC is currently working with WFO Tucson to evaluate customer response and additional needs. • OAR is collaborating with the placement of 6 soil moisture sensing station in the study area.

  8. Experimental Soil Moisture

  9. Multiple grid type display (soil moisture, precipitation, and surface response.) Overlays on terrain and geographic data for better location. Enhanced navigation. Proto-type grid viewer

  10. Probabilistic Surface Response • Run the historical observed precipitation through the Hydrologic Lab – Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) saving grids of discharge and surface flow for each hour. • Establish the hourly distribution of discharge and surface flow for each cell. • Run the model in real-time, with quality controlled QPE and very-short-term QPF (NMQ) to produce the discharge and surface flow grids. • For each grid cell, compare the value to the distribution of values and assign the exceedence category.

  11. Operational Probabilistic Surface Response Concept Cell Discharge Distributions Occurrence Q Grid of Discharge Discharge Exceedence values

  12. Exceedence Surface Flow, July 31, 2007

  13. Improvements over existing FF Program • Continuous model maintains soil moisture states. • Model is connected – flows routed from cell to cell to show impacts in areas downstream from the precipitation event. • Indicates where significant flows are occurring or could occur based on that cell’s hydrologic distribution. • In time, WFO forecaster short-term storm projections can be used to derive quantified stream response. • Begins to bridge the gap between traditional RFC river forecasts and the Flashflood program.

  14. Questions? Edward.clark@noaa.gov

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