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Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars

Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars. Jim Lee, American University, 2009 jlee@american.edu Inventory of Conflict and Environment (ICE) http://www.american.edu/ted/. Climate Change and Border Disputes.

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Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars

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  1. Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars Jim Lee, American University, 2009 jlee@american.edu Inventory of Conflict and Environment (ICE) http://www.american.edu/ted/

  2. Climate Change and Border Disputes • “Italy and Switzerland are planning to redraw their shared alpine border, as global warming is melting the glaciers that originally guided the line.” • Michael Marshall, “Climate changes Europe's borders – and the world's”, New Scientist Online, March, 2009.

  3. Climate Change and Conflict: Structures and Behaviors • Climate Change Structures * Sustained patterns * Other variables * Triggers • Conflict Behaviors * Scarcity * Abundance * Sovereignty

  4. IPCC Climate Model Regions

  5. Temperature Forecasts in 2100

  6. Precipitation Forecasts in 2100

  7. Post-1945 Conflict History (SIPRI)

  8. Future to 2015 Conflicts (DOD)

  9. Climate Change and Conflict: New and Old Tension Belts

  10. Hot and Cold Wars • Hot Wars War of Contraction Livelihood conflict Ancient Conflict Developing Countries • Cold Wars War of Expansion Militarized conflict New Conflict Developed Countries

  11. SIX SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT • The End of the Ice Age • Where Have the Tropical Forests Gone? • The Great World Desert and Water Wars • Protein and Livelihood Deficits in Africa • Central Asia is Heating Up • Rising Tides Don’t Lift All Ships

  12. The Political Dimensions of Climate Change and Equity • Why No Pessimism in Climate Change Forecasts? • Winners and Losers: Is Climate Change Good for Me? • The Climate as War: Environmental Modification Treaty Updates

  13. Coming Research on Climate Change and Conflict James R. Lee, “Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars”, Routledge Press, August 2009 http://www.routledge.com/books/Climate-Change-and-Armed-Conflict-isbn9780415778695

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