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South East Europe in an Environment of Volatile Capital Flows Sarajevo, June 5 and 6, 2014

South East Europe in an Environment of Volatile Capital Flows Sarajevo, June 5 and 6, 2014. Michael Faulend e-mail: michael.faulend @ hnb.hr. What external debt data tell us about deleveraging in SEE ?. Source : Eurostat, national c entral banks , World Bank.

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South East Europe in an Environment of Volatile Capital Flows Sarajevo, June 5 and 6, 2014

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  1. South East Europe inanEnvironmentofVolatile Capital FlowsSarajevo, June 5 and 6, 2014 Michael Faulend e-mail: michael.faulend@hnb.hr

  2. What external debt data tell us about deleveraginginSEE? Source: Eurostat, national central banks, World Bank Source: Eurostat, national central banks, World Bank

  3. Largeportionofaffiliatedexternaldebt – mitigates capital flows’ volatilityrisks, but … Source: Spring 2014 Regional Economic Issues report - CESEE External Funding Patterns and Risks

  4. Croatia – capital inflows’ slowdownafterthe global financial crisis Source: HNB Source: HNB

  5. Countercyclicalmonetaryandmacroprudentialpolicycanhelp … Source: HNB

  6. … promotebanks’ stabilityandsupport credit activity, but onlyif it wasenactedearlyenough (inthecycle) Bank (regulatory) capital adequacy ratio (CAR) * refers to thelatest data available for 2013. Source: IMF, FSI, (bank assets) weighted averages. Note: CEE countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic, Slovenia.

  7. Conclusion – thehighestcummulative credit growth to corporatesectorsincethe start ofthecrisis (among EU countries) Cummulative change incorporate credit in % (8/2008 – 3/2014) Croatia: Banks’ interestrates EU 15 North Source: HNB Note: EU15 = Finland, Ireland, Sweeden, UK (North); Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands (Continental); Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain (South). EU12 = Estonia, Latvia (North); Czech Rep., Hungary, Poland, Slovak Rep., Slovenia (Continental), Bulgaria, Romania (South). Source: ECBand national central banks

  8. ThankYou! 8

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