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Performance of COSMO-LEPS over the Alpine region

Performance of COSMO-LEPS over the Alpine region Chiara Marsigli, Andrea Montani, Fabrizio Nerozzi, Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SMR, Bologna, Italy ICAM/MAP Brig, 19-23 May 2003. COSMO-LEPS suite @ ECMWF. start of COSMO-LEPS integrations. clustering times. oldest EPS. +144. middle EPS.

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Performance of COSMO-LEPS over the Alpine region

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  1. Performance of COSMO-LEPS over the Alpine region Chiara Marsigli, Andrea Montani, Fabrizio Nerozzi, Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SMR, Bologna, Italy ICAM/MAP Brig, 19-23 May 2003

  2. COSMO-LEPS suite @ ECMWF start of COSMO-LEPS integrations clustering times oldest EPS +144 middle EPS +132 153 members youngest EPS +120 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 n –1 n n+1 +2 +3 +4 +5 day

  3. ECMWF LM COSMO-LEPS Dim 2 precipitation scenarios Dim 1 Initial conditions PROBABILITY MAPS

  4. COSMO-LEPS INTEGRATION DOMAIN LOKAL MODELL 10 KM HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION

  5. COSMO-LEPS Deterministic products for each of the 5 LM runs: Precipitation Mean Sea level pressure 700 hPa Geopotential 850 hPa Temperature Lokal Model scenarios Transfer to Cosmo Partners and other interested Member States • Probability Maps • prob of 24h rainfall exceeding 20,50,100,150 mm • prob of 24h Tmax exceeding 20,30,35,40 C • prob of 24h Tmin below -10,-5,0,+5 C • prob of 24h Vmax exceeding 10,15,20,25 m/s • prob of 24h snowfall exceeding 1,5,10,20 mm of equivalent water

  6. Elbe Flood 12-13 August 2002

  7. 11/08 12UTC

  8. 12/08 00UTC

  9. 12/08 12UTC

  10. 13/08 00UTC

  11. 13/08 12UTC

  12. Observed precipitation 12/08 06UTC - 13/08 06 UTC Courtesy of Ulrich Damrath

  13. Observed precipitation 12/08 06UTC - 13/08 06 UTC

  14. 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 8 9 10 11 12 13 +120 +96 oldest EPS middle EPS +84 +108 youngest EPS +96 +72 I.C. and B.C. +96 +72 5 LM runs

  15. FC 08/08 12UTC Z700 FC 09/08 00UTC FC 09/08 12UTC ANALYSIS 13/08 00UTC

  16. COSMO LEPS 124 11 5 6 7 ana Z700

  17. COSMO LEPS 124 11 5 6 7 obs TP

  18. COSMO-LEPS probability of precipitation W > 20mm/24h > 50mm/24h > 100mm/24h > 150mm/24h

  19. COSMO-LEPS probability of precipitation NW > 20mm/24h > 50mm/24h > 100mm/24h > 150mm/24h

  20. Observed precipitation 12/08 06UTC - 13/08 06 UTC

  21. ECMWF EPS probability of precipitation Super-ensemble > 20mm/24h > 50mm/24h Youngest EPS > 20mm/24h > 50mm/24h

  22. Lokal Modell deterministic run 12/08 00UTC Fc +6 +30 Courtesy of Ulrich Damrath

  23. obs LM +6 +30

  24. Fine

  25. EPS 8 12UTC + 9 00UTC + 9 12UTC 8 9 10 11 12 13 Size RM Date Time Lag CL 1: 124 13 2002/08/09 12 0 CL 2: 11 25 2002/08/08 12 24 CL 3: 5 42 2002/08/08 12 24 CL 4: 6 32 2002/08/08 12 24 CL 5: 7 18 2002/08/08 12 24

  26. Z700 ANALYSIS 13/08 00UTC 12/08 12UTC 13/08 12UTC

  27. 12 124 11 5 6 7 obs

  28. COSMO-LEPS probability of precipitation W 12 > 20mm/24h > 50mm/24h > 100mm/24h > 150mm/24h

  29. COSMO-LEPS probability of precipitation NW 12 > 20mm/24h > 50mm/24h > 100mm/24h > 150mm/24h

  30. ECMWF EPS probability of precipitation 12 Super-ensemble > 20mm/24h > 50mm/24h Youngest EPS > 20mm/24h > 50mm/24h

  31. obs 12 LM +6 +30

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