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CPC Role in the Regional Climate Services Partnership

Explore the ongoing activities and contributions of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Discover CPC's mission to deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for various timescales, and learn about their collaboration with other NCEP centers and NOAA line offices. Dive into the advancements in climate modeling and prediction, as well as CPC's forecast operations and contributions to NOAA climate services.

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CPC Role in the Regional Climate Services Partnership

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  1. Dr. Wayne Higgins, Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP February, 2011 CPC Role in the Regional Climate Services Partnership

  2. Background

  3. Outline • CPC Within NCEP • Ongoing CPC Activities • Climate Modeling and Prediction Advances • CPC Forecast Operations • NCEP Contributions to NOAA Climate Services

  4. CPC within NCEP

  5. CPC Mission We deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy. • National temperature and precipitation outlooks, but not monthly / seasonal rankings • Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years (i.e. short term climate) • Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other agencies and labs • Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of Products Temperature Outlook

  6. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Service Center Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Seasonal Predictions Months Week 2 Hazards Assessment CPC 2 Week Climate/Weather Linkage 6-10 Day Forecast 1 Week NDFD, Days 4 -7 HPC OPC TPC Days Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : SPC AWC SWPC Hours Minutes Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control

  7. The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services Observe To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation, Health organizations (CDC…) - Process - Assimilate - Predict Products & Forecast Services Central Guidance Local Offices Respond & Feedback NCEP Distribute IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD Research, Development and Technology Infusion Feedback Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models

  8. Ongoing CPC Activities

  9. Climate Prediction Products Focus on week-2 to seasonal-to-interannual 6-10 Day & 8-14 Day Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks Day 3-14 Hazards Assessments (US, Global Tropics) Monthly & Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks Seasonal Drought Outlook Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific) Monthly ENSO Prediction • Tools used to develop prediction products • Dynamical Models • Statistical Models • Historical Analogs • Historical Composites • * Dynamical Models • Climate Forecast System • Global Forecast System • ECMWF

  10. Outlook Verification http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/seas_veri.grid.php • CPC provides real-time gridded verification of its official outlooks • - downloadable archive • - observations • - performance metrics NOAA/Climate Prediction Center

  11. Climate Monitoring Products Daily and monthly data, time series, and maps for various climate parameters and compilation of data on historical and current atmospheric and oceanic conditions Primary modes of climate variability (ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...) Atmospheric Circulation (global troposphere and stratosphere) Storm Tracks and Blocking Monsoons Oceanic Conditions (global and coastal) Precipitation and Surface Temperature (global and US) Drought (US, North America; NIDIS)

  12. Monitoring & Prediction of Monsoon Systems Worldwide Monitor: Atmospheric, oceanic & land surface conditions across time scales Predict: Week-1, week-2, monthly and seasonal rainfall Lifecycle: onset, maintenance and demise Monsoon indices Assess: Hazards (droughts and floods) Seasonal Intensity Variability (linkages to ENSO, MJO, etc)

  13. Climate Assessment Products Synthesis of current weather and climate information and forecasts; issued on a routine basis Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, web) ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and WORD) Weekly ENSO / MJO / Monsoon / Ocean updates (.ppt, PDF, web) Seasonal Climate Summaries (web) Special Climate Assessments (extreme events, web) Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency; published in the AMS Bulletin) Hazards Assessments (US, Africa, & Global Tropics) Day 3-14 – WX/CX Connection

  14. Training Coverage in Africa Selected Other Climate Services at CPC • Joint Agriculture Weather Facility • USDA – DOC partnership • Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin • Briefings & Weather Summaries on global weather and crop conditions • CPC International Desks • Professional development training to African Meteorologists • WMO partnership for regional and global activities • Lead Famine Early Warning System Hazard/Benefit Assessments: Africa, Central America, Afghanistan • Indian Ocean tropical cyclone monitoring • International Monsoon Forecaster Training

  15. Applied Climate Research (Science and Service Integration)

  16. Climate Change Global change Trends Change in weather event amplitude and frequency Change in climate event amplitude and frequency Weather Climate Variability Extreme Events Tropical Storms Droughts/Floods Blocking Tropics - El Niño, La Niña Extratropics - Jet Patterns Teleconnections Linking Weather and Climate Motivation: Climate Change is manifested as changes in the number and intensity of weather extremes that have significant human impacts, thus posing a serious challenge to society. How do climate variations and climate change affect weather events and vice-versa?

  17. Climate Modeling and Prediction Advances

  18. Climate Modeling and Prediction Advances at NCEP • Climate Forecast System - NOAA’s first dynamic, fully-coupled operational climate forecast model • Version 1 operational since Aug 2004 • Version 2 operational in Mar 2011 • CFSv2 Reanalysis & Reforecasts (1979-present) • Climate Test Bed – Accelerate the transition of Research to Operations (R2O) • CFSv3 improvements • Multi Model Ensemble Prediction Systems • Linking SI & Decadal Modeling & Prediction • CPC-CTB-RISA Program; Regional Climate Information • Model Test Facility - Provide CFS and related datasets to community (O2R) CFS (v1) Implemented Climate Test Bed spin up

  19. Climate Forecast System (CFS) Upgrade (Mar 11) 19

  20. CFSv2 Reanalysis

  21. CFSv2 Capability to Recreate Decadal Temperature Trend 21

  22. Comparison of Predictive Skill for CFSv2 vs CFSv1 For MJO Principle Components 1 and 2 CFSv1 & CFSv2 PC1 & PC2

  23. Impending Domination of Ensemble Based Model Systems Forecast Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies from CFS • Climate: Climate Multi-Model Ensemble • NCEP Climate Forecast System + GFDL Climate Model • Medium Range Weather: North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) • GFS + MSC + Navy FNMOC NOGAPS Experimental Enhanced Resolution Thunderstorm Outlooks Probability of Temperature over 30C over 24 hour period (7 day forecast valid Sept 3-4, 2009) • Mesoscale: Short Range Ensemble Forecasts • WRF/ARW + WRF/NMM + RSM

  24. Summary CPC • Delivers a suite of “operational” climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products • Accelerates advances in climate prediction and fills gaps in the “seamless suite” of climate products • Works across NOAA and with other organizations on expanded responsibilities for climate; interdisciplinary approaches are the key to success • Plays a unique and critical role in NOAA climate services

  25. Dr. Wayne Higgins, Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP CSPM F2F Meeting February 11, 2010 NCEP Contributions to NOAA Climate Services

  26. NCEP Contributions to Implement The Climate Service • FY11 Priority Areas • Science • Predictions and Projections • Observations • Data • Monitoring • Science and Services • Partnerships • Regional • Communication • Assessments • Attribution • Focus on Execution • NCEP FY11 AOP activities • Integration/ Redirection • NCEP FY11 Headlines • Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2 and CFSRR) • Multi Model Ensemble (CSF+EUROSIP) • Climate Monitoring & Climate Portal

  27. NCEP Contributions to the Climate Service FY11 AOP • Predictions and Projections • Sustain and Enhance Climate Operations • Monitoring • NOAA Climate Monitoring Summit • Science and Services • “Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate” needs assessment

  28. DRAFT EXAMPLE Predictions and Projections Task:Sustain and Enhance Climate Operations Objective:Improve scientific understanding Performance Measures:US Seasonal Temperature Forecasts CoreCapability: Understanding and Modeling Societal Challenge: Climate Impacts on Water Resources; Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate • Actions Planned • Improve statistical and dynamical forecast models, tools and techniques • Issue operational climate outlooks • Milestones • FY11Q4: Develop & test a seasonal MME forecast tool that combines CFS & EUROSIP • FY11Q3: Evaluate prediction of sea-ice in CFSv2 • FY11Q3: Assess prediction skill for week2 to week4 in the CFSv2 • FY11Q3: Issue and update the 2011 Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Seasonal Outlooks • FY11Q4: Develop new metric based on extended range and seasonal forecasts • FY11Q3: Establish International Monsoon Forecaster Training Desk Target: 21.0 Actual: 21.4 • Risk: • Implement MOA, CONOPS and AOP milestones between NWS and CS for CFS development, execution, archive and (real-time) delivery Mitigating Risk: • MOA, CONOPS currently under development

  29. DRAFT EXAMPLE Monitoring Objective:Improve scientific understanding Performance Measures:Number of monitoring products incorporated into the ECV-based analysis tool Task:NOAA Climate Monitoring Summit Report, including inventory, definition and recommendations CoreCapability: Observing Systems, Data Stewardship and Climate Monitoring Societal Challenge: Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate; Climate Impacts on Water Resources • Actions Planned • Enhance coordination of climate monitoring activities across NOAA, including overlaps and gaps, key indices, users and outreach • Milestones • FY11Q1: Lead Climate Monitoring Summit • FY11Q2: Complete CMS Report, including inventory, and monitoring definition • FY11Q1-Q4:Provide support for the expansion of the NOAA Climate Portal • FY11Q3: Complete satellite-gauge merged precipitation analysis • FY11Q4: Update A-O-L climatologies from 1971-2000 to 1981-2010 base period • Risk • Stand up Climate Monitoring Working Group to implement CMS recommendations Mitigating Risk • Briefs to CS Corporate Board, NOSC and NEP/NEC to request help in standing up CMWG Target: X products Actual: Y products

  30. NOAA Climate Services Portal www.climate.gov • One-stop access for NOAA’s climate information • Multiple audiences so multiple avenues to access information • ClimateWatch Magazine • Data and Services • Understanding Climate • Education • Climate Dashboard

  31. DRAFT EXAMPLE Science and Services Objective:Science and Services Task:Complete an initial Needs Assessment for Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate CoreCapability: Integrated Service Development and Decision Support Societal Challenge: Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate • Actions Planned • Identify FY11 deliverables (for AOP) • Coordinate the team of people & execution • Needs Assessment process focused initially on CFSv2 user needs • Develop storyline for needs assessment and societal challenge for the FY2011 initial focus within a broader perspective of information needs • Milestones • FY11 Q2: Establish small team for WxCx Societal Challenge • FY11Q2: Administer Changes in Extremes of Wx and Cx Needs Assessment data collection for users of CFS (Data Collection) • FY11Q2: Hold CFSv2 Needs Assessment Workshop with focus group of representative internal and external users (Data Collection) • FY11Q3: CFS “White Paper” with findings and interpretation, including defining needs and proposed means to fill gaps (Data Analysis) • FY11Q4: Incorporate Requirements for CFSv2 into CS and NWS FY12 AOP • Risk • How to tap NOAA's close partners such as the RISAs, RCCs and state climatologists? Mitigating Risk Target: X Actual: Y

  32. CPC Top Priorities 1. Climate Outlooks Objectives: Provide extended range, monthly and seasonal outlooks over the US; Provide seasonal outlooks for hurricane activity, droughts, & ENSO 2. Climate Monitoring Objectives: Monitor atmospheric, oceanic and land surface climate variability 3. Climate Assessments Objectives: Provide assessments & attribution of weather & climate anomalies on ISI timescales  4. Interagency and International Commitments Objectives: Enhance partnership with USDA for Joint Agriculture Weather Facility; Sustain and enhance CPC International Desks (Africa Desk, Monsoon Desk)  5. Climate Test Bed Objectives: Accelerate transition of climate research advances to operations (CFS improvements; MME prediction systems; climate products)  6. Data Base Management Objectives: Maintain, develop, and backup, data bases critical to CPC prediction and monitoring activities  7. Computer Systems, Information Technology, and Operational Reliability Objectives: Maintain CPC computing and IT infrastructure and provide support for CPC’s operational products

  33. National Weather Service:Collaborating on Climate Services

  34. Goals/Objective • Support CS vision/mission • Key challenges: • Climate/Weather linkage for short term predictions • Production of climate information to meet national, regional and local needs • User engagement • User requirements and service delivery • Preparedness vs Adaptation • Training/education of workforce

  35. Climate Responsibilities of NWS and CS Personal Action Dominates Societal Action Dominates High Freq of Information Low Freq of Information Short Lifetime of Product Long Lifetime of Product

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