WECC Staff SWG Conference Call December 8, 2010

1. 2020 Study Case Progress WECC Staff SWG Conference Call December 8, 2010

2. Status of 2020 Study Cases Case Complete Case Complete

3. Load/Resource Balance – High Loads Case LRS Planning Reserve Margins (PRM) are not met in AZ-NM-NV, Basin, Alberta, NWPP LRS PRMs are exceeded in BC, CA-North, CA-South, RMPA

4. Load/Resource Balance – High Loads Case • Observations– • The PRM in CA-North and CA-South exceeds 17%, as such, a decrease in expected exports from AZ-NM-NV and NWPP would help make up gaps in these sub-regions • Hydro is such a large component of the NWPP generation portfolio. Increasing the on-peak contribution of hydro from 70% to just 75% makes the NWPP gap almost disappear

5. Load/Resource Balance – High Loads Case • Recommendation – • Let PROMOD attempt to re-dispatch the system under the high load scenario with no incremental additions to conventional generation • Note: SWG already agreed to scale renewable resources to meet adjusted RPS based on high load-scenario loads • Possible exception – Alberta

6. First Run of High Load Study Case Largest MWh increases are from coal, CC, and CTs Increase in Emergency is only in Alberta and CFE

7. Load/Resource Balance – High DSM Case • The LRS PRM is exceeded in all sub-regions • DSM mock generators jumped from a maximum capacity of 6,900 MW to almost 13,000 MW (total at time of individual sub-regional peak demands) • The DSM is either hard-wired into the dataset with an hourly shape, or tuned so that it runs for an expected number of hours

8. Load/Resource Balance – High DSM Case • Recommendation- • Do not remove any conventional resources • Note: Renewables resources will still be reduced to meet adjusted RPS targets based on high DSM loads • Let PROMOD dispatch the system using the cheapest resources available, within the constraints of the transmission system • Report on changes in generator capacity factors, equate to possible capacity retirements

9. Load/Resource Balance – High DSM Case • SPSC Perspective: • The SPSC Scenario Work Group discussed whether or not existing/under-construction conventional resources should be retired in this case • The SPSC will form a small group to try and identify possible plants to retire, using as input those resources that were backed-down or not dispatched in a case run as recommended on the previous slide • A sensitivity could then be run which removes retirements identified by this group

10. Carbon Reduction Study Case • How to reach CO2 target of 311MMTons? • CO2 in SPSC Ref Case- 368 MMTons • CO2 in 1st run of High DSM Case- 323 MMTons • Note- run was done with high DSM loads and renewables, but no new DSM models • Carbon adders, additional interior wind, additional southwest solar, coal plant retirements? • Timeline?

11. Aggressive MT/WY Wind Cases Keith White provided a ranking of the renewable resources used to meet the CA RPS target To reach 25,000 GWh, the following resources could be removed: Does this look reasonable?

12. Locations of New Wind - Montana MT_NW MT_NE MT_CT From WREZ Peer Analysis Tool:

13. Locations of New Wind - Wyoming WY_NO WY_EC WY_EA WY_SO From WREZ Peer Analysis Tool:

14. Verify Potential of WREZ Zones Adjustments were made by selecting additional resources from the next highest ranked WREZ zone in each state Does this look reasonable?

15. Next Steps for WECC Staff • Complete data inputs for these remaining high priority study cases, and run the cases by the end of the month • January 1- Begin study case reporting • SWG input on results reported? • SPSC input on results reported? • Please provide comments to the staff by the end of the month