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CBRFC WFO Call December 14, 2010

CBRFC WFO Call December 14, 2010. Outline. Water Supply Forecast Program Updates CBRFC Stakeholder Forum Output CBRFC Projects Update SH Activities. Water Supply Forecast Update. 2010 verification studies complete and online La Nina impacts online

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CBRFC WFO Call December 14, 2010

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  1. CBRFC WFO CallDecember 14, 2010

  2. Outline • Water Supply Forecast Program Updates • CBRFC Stakeholder Forum Output • CBRFC Projects Update • SH Activities

  3. Water Supply Forecast Update • 2010 verification studies complete and online • La Nina impacts online • CBRFC led monthly webinars begin January 7 (and the 7th of each month through May) • 30 year averages / statistical equations / ESP calibration time period updates for WY2011 • Major revision planned for WS publication – WFO input especially welcome • Hydrologic ensemble forecast system implementation • Basin Focal Points: • Green: Ashley Nielson (change for 2011) • Upper Colorado: Brenda Alcorn • San Juan + Gunnison: Tracy Cox • Lower Colorado: Greg Smith • Great: Brent Bernard • WFO COOP precipitation data as early as possible will help the forecast process

  4. 2011 Look Ahead • Outlook and current situation: • Summer / Fall Precip • Soil Moisture States • Snow States • Climate Forecasts and ENSO

  5. Summer / Fall 2010 Precipitation

  6. Soil Moisture

  7. La Nina Sources: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO

  8. ONI is three month mean of nino3.4 • Current ONI value is -1.5

  9. CFS Objective Consolidation of Tools FINAL FORECAST OBJECTIVE CONSOLIDATION fore- caster SKILL & SPREAD wts TOOLS ECCA SKILL & SPREAD wts TOOLS CPC’s Objective Consolidation Scheme for 3- Month Outlook Models (tools) Unger et al, 2009, O’Lenic et al, 2008) O’Lenic Oct 26, 2010

  10. 16 Composite Cases: 1950, 51, 55, 56, 68, 71, 74, 75, 76, 85, 89, 96, 99, 00, 01, 08

  11. 15 Composite Cases: 1950, 51, 55, 56, 68, 71, 74, 75, 76, 85, 89, 96, 99, 00, 08

  12. 15 Composite Cases: 1950, 54, 55, 56, 64, 68, 71, 74, 75, 76, 85, 89, 99, 00, 08

  13. 15 Composite Cases: 1950, 54, 55, 56, 64, 71, 73, 74, 75, 85, 88, 89, 99, 00, 08

  14. La Nina and the Upper Colorado • Some analyses (e.g. Klaus Wolter, right) have shown seasonal teleconnections to precipitation in the Upper Colorado basin • Possible tendency toward drier fall and spring and wetter winters in La Nina Credit: Klaus Wolter http://wwa.colorado.edu/IWCS/2010_October.html

  15. La Nina and Streamflow • Very low correlations in most of upper basin (right: Lake Powell) • La Nina correlated with low streamflow in lower basin at around 0.2 – 0.3 • Weaker correlations for San Juan Basin with low streamflow and Upper Green with high streamflow 2011 forecast Average = 7.9 maf

  16. HEFS: with and without Climate Forecast System forcingsForecast made: 12/9/10

  17. 30 year average • 30 year averages are updated once every 10 years • Currently using 1971-2000 averages • Update for WY2012 will be based on 1981-2010 averages • Update will affect both water supply reference (e.g. percent of normal… normal will change) and forecast numbers (e.g. data input to tools will change)

  18. Preliminary Data • 18% reduction in mean

  19. Preliminary Data • 4% reduction in mean

  20. Preliminary Data • 6% reduction in mean

  21. Preliminary Data • 6% reduction in mean

  22. Preliminary Data • 11% reduction in mean

  23. Preliminary Data • All 30 year means since 1911-1940

  24. 1981-2010 is the driest 30 year period on record

  25. Affect on Forecasts • WY2011 forecasts will continue to use 1971-2000 means: • Statistical models (SWS and NRCS) will use 1971-2000 • Simulation model (ESP) will use 1976-2005 • WY2012 forecasts will be based on 1981-2010 inputs in both forecast models • ESP and SWS will both use the same period • SNOTEL network much stronger for 1981-2010 period than in 1970s. This network is critical for forecast skill. • All things equal, these forecasts will be lower since input data sets are drier in the 30 year average • Especially true in early season forecasts • Later season forecasts more controlled by observed snowpack • Percent of normal forecast values should remain largely unchanged (since normals AND forecasts will be lower)

  26. CBRFC Stakeholder Forum • 3 Day Event at CBRFC in August 2010 • Participants from all over CO basin attended • Main focus on water supply and peak flow forecast needs in the basin • Key requirements from forum: • Simple ways to communicate forecasts relative to important thresholds • Post-mortems • More info on the 30 year average update • Objective water supply forecast system • Greater CBRFC participation in stakeholder meetings • 2 year forecast for Colorado • Greater transparency in forecast process • Full report online (under papers and presentations -> reports) • A stakeholder forum of some sort is likely for summer 2011 • SH participation encouraged for future stakeholder forums

  27. CBRFC Project Updates • CHPS migration • Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System implementation • June 2010 flood event post-mortem analysis completed (for now) and writing it up • Snow Covered Area project funded • Peak flow forecast verification • Dambreak program • Recreation program

  28. DamBreak and EAPs William B. Reed Senior Hydrologist Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

  29. New New DamBreak Notice on Webpage for sites with EAPs

  30. New New EAP Code in Record

  31. DAMBREAK PROCEDURES 1. COORDINATE WITH THE WFO FIRST ACTION: DETERMINE IF THERE IS A WARNING OR WATCH OUT Broken: Determine if the WFO has issued a generic Warning. If not, advise that they do. Not Broken: Determine if the WFO has issued a generic Watch. If not, advise that they do. SECOND ACTION: DETERMINE IF THE WFO HAS AN EMERGENCY ACTION PLAN (EAP) AVAILABLE BY CHECKING DAM CATALOG FOR A 1 OR 2 IN EMERGENCY ACTION BOX 1=EAP AT WFO AND CBRFC, 2=EAP AT WFO ONLY, 0=NO EAP ***STOP! REFER TO EAP FOR ALL INFORMATION, DO NOT USE SIMPLIFIED DAM BREAK FORECASTS New DamBreak Procedure: Code Defined

  32. SUMMARY OF WHAT IS AT CBRFC Will provide spreadsheet with 211 EAPs listed.

  33. Do we have all EAPs for your HSA in CBRFC ? Please provide us with a list of all the EAPs you have in CBRFC area. • Please obtain copy for CBRFC if we do not have it. Will provide spreadsheet listing all we have at this time.- Of those we do have do we have the most recent revision ? Please check spreadsheet I will provide.- Do we have the right HSA defined ? Please check spreadsheet I will provide. • - Until we receive hardcopy will list EAP as at WFO only (code 2)

  34. Do we have all EAPs for your HSA in CBRFC ? • Please provide us with a list of all the EAPs you have in CBRFC area • Using the spreadsheet provided. • Please obtain copy for CBRFC of any EAPs we do not have. • Will provide spreadsheet listing all we have at this time. • Of those we do have do we have the most recent revision? • Please check spreadsheet. • Do we have the right HSA defined? • Please check spreadsheet. • Please provide spreadsheets by February 1st.

  35. Recreation Program

  36. Goal is to open a better dialogue with recreational users so we understand their requirements and they know about us. We would like to know who are recreational users are and what else we can do for them • To facilitate this, we have bunch of brochures targeted at the recreational community that we would like to distribute to shops and/or organizations frequented by recreationalists. • WE NEED YOUR HELP HERE: • Please provide us with a list of recreational users in your area that you know about • Do you currently have any interactions with this community? If so, we’d like to be involved as appropriate. • Are you aware of any opportunities to become more involved with this community? EMAIL REPLY BY FEBRUARY 1st

  37. WFO Updates • Please describe: • Project(s) you’d like to share • Issues you’d like to collaborate with other WFOs and/or CBRFC on solving • Something you’d like to see from CBRFC

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