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The Internet on Democratization

The Effect Of. The Internet on Democratization. Samantha Anderson Min Woong Choi Griffin O. Cohen. Prof. James Vreeland 03 Dec 2013. Research Question. Democratization. Internet. Arab Spring (2011). Hypothesis.

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The Internet on Democratization

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  1. The Effect Of The Internet on Democratization Samantha AndersonMin Woong Choi Griffin O. Cohen Prof. James Vreeland 03 Dec 2013

  2. Research Question Democratization Internet

  3. Arab Spring (2011)

  4. Hypothesis • Internet growth will the likelihood of democratization • Why? • The Internet facilitates communications and the share of • information, both domestically and internationally • Thus, gives the “people” more leverage increase • We also predict the following: • Democracies should both have more proportional Internet users and Internet growth • In the years prior to democratization, countries should see a “build-up” effect of Internet growth, increasing each year prior to democratization

  5. Debate • Previous studies: • Cross section of data (Kedzie 1997) • Pooled, static data • Limited number of years (Best & Wade 2009) • Endogeneity Debate: • Does regime impact Internet? • Helen Milner (2005) • Democracies undoubtedly have more Internet users than autocracies

  6. Argument (Political State of Countryi,t) x [(Internet Growthi,t-2) + (Internet Growthi,t-1) + (Internet Growthi,t)] Democratization Likelihoodi,t =

  7. Democratization 1995 – 2008: data from “Extreme Bounds of Democracy” (2013), 25 Total Niger Mexico

  8. Case Studies Tunisia China Mexico Niger Middle East

  9. Methodology • New Variables • - Internet Growth per year (difference [logged], percent) • - Regime Changes • - Regime Transition Lagged Effect • - 3 years before democratization • Statistical Tests: • Correlation • - Regression (logistic, random effects, fixed effects, dynamic) • - Graphs (two-way, quadratic, and descriptive data) • - Lagged effect analysis • - Descriptive Data (Internet era against counterfactual era) • Data from 1995-2008 • 3,013 country-year observations • 190 countries • 25 countries transition from autocracy to democracy

  10. Variables • Independent: Internet growth (difference, logged) • Dependent: Regime (democracy or autocracy) • Control Variables: • GDP (per Capita, percentage growth) • Urban Population • Oil Net Exports • Muslim Population (in 1980) • Freedom of Speech • Social Globalization • Political Globalization

  11. Correlations Fractional Polynomial Linear Internet Users Growth Effect on Democracy (logged) Internet Users Growth Effect on Democracy

  12. The Survival of Democracy • Dynamic Tests: Logistic, Conditional Fixed-Effects Logistic, Regression • GDP Annual Growth: Significant across all tests • Internet variables, GDP per Capita (2005 US$): Not Significant • Implications: Przeworski et al. (2000) found that GDP per Capita would predict survival of democracy, but their study stopped at 1990 • Thus, perhaps a shift has occurred and regimes must “perform” well as people have more leverage in today’s world

  13. Democracy is More Likely in Countries with High Internet Growth • Pooled, static tests: Random Effects, Fixed Effects • Internet growth (percentage growth, difference logged): Significant across all tests • Internet users per 100 persons: Not significant

  14. Descriptive Data Democracy Internet Users by Regime Internet Users Growth by Regime Dictatorship Democracy Dictatorship

  15. Democratization • Dynamic Tests: Logistic and Random Effects • Internet Users Percentage Growth: Not Significant • GDP (per Capita, annual growth): Not Significant • Internet Users Difference, logged: Significant across all models • Implication: The numberof people with access to the Internet matters, not the percentage growth

  16. “Build-Up” Effect

  17. “Build-Up” Effect

  18. “Build-Up” Effect: Implications • Democratization is a process—it does not occur overnight • Endogeneity debate: Increased Internet prior to democratization suggests the Internet influences regime

  19. Analysis by Era

  20. Implications Government People

  21. Huntington’s Wave Theory World War II to 1960s 1970s to 1990s 19th century to 1942

  22. New Global Divide? • Fourth Wave: Beginning with Arab Spring in 2011 • Possible pullback? • Expect increase of democracy but also a strengthening of autocracies • Autocracies may tighten restrictions • Dictator’s Dilemna

  23. Questions?

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