NCEP’s Climate Forecast System as a National Model

1. NCEP’s Climate Forecast System as a National Model Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” August 28, 2007

2. Overview • Transition Paradigm • Recent Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP • Ongoing Strategic Priorities • Risks / Budget Issues

3. Schematics in the Model Transition Process EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Other Agencies & International Effort Service Centers Field Offices EMC NOAA Research NCO EMC ASI, COLA, ARCS Observation System Life cycle Support Service Centers User OPS Test Beds JCSDA CTB DTC JHT Operations R&D Delivery Operations to Research Transition from Research to Operations Launch List – Model Implementation Process Concept of Operations Requirements Criteria Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

4. Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process 1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs… 2. Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps Research-to-Operations (R2O). Deliver skill-optimized forecast products founded on CTB-based innovation and& customer feedback; Bring in customer requests 4. Systematic transition steps Operations-to-Applications (O2A). 5. Delivery of products to the diverse community and customer feedback 2 R2O NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infra-structure for the transition processes N C E P 1 R&D Community CTB CPC O2R 3 EMC CFS OPERATIONS 4 R2O O2A User Community 5 CTB role: facilitate transitions for the CPC specific product range (6-10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal)

5. Recent Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP • Climate Forecast System: first dynamic operational climate forecast model (implemented Aug 2004) • Climate Test Bed: established in 2005, focused on accelerating improvements in the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products • Unprecedented increasesin the skill of CPC official seasonal outlooks(20% or more; O’Lenic et al. 2007) due in part to CFS and to CTB milestones (e.g. consolidation tool).

6. Ongoing Strategic Priorities • Accelerate improvements in the CFS through the O2R & R2O paradigm • Be a partner within the multi model ensemble enterprise • Enhance NCEP’s role in the transition process • Address budget issues

7. “Operations to Research (O2R)” • Goal • To accelerate improvements in the NCEP Climate Forecast System by providing CFS to the broad research community • Deliverables • CFS, data, and support services (e.g. helpdesk facility) to user community • Annual workshop on CFS • Mechanism • Managed operational program between NCEP, CPO, and CTB • Benefits • Provides support for research with CFS outside NCEP (ARCs, NSF, etc) • Maximizes opportunities for community participation

8. “Operations to Research (O2R)” NCEPwill provide • Operational models (CFS, GFS) and data (e.g. reforecasts, reanalysis) • Helpdesk facilities, training for O2R staff, web services • Points of contact for collaboration • Support for CTB Seminar Series CPO will provide • Support for helpdesk, training, points of contact, web services • Grants Program (AOs) CTB will provide • Transition Infrastructure for pulling in the Research (R2O) • Links between Test beds (e.g. CTB and HTB) GAPS • Computing support for dissemination of models and data • Resources for competitive transition activities

9. CTB Seminar Series • Initial focus: "CFS as a prediction system and research tool". • Alternate venue between NCEP and COLA • NCEP Venue: Coordinate Seminars with CTB “Test and Evaluation Team” meetings for broader discussion following the seminars • Gradually expand to include the broader climate community • Future Foci: • Change topic from year-to-year or as appropriate • Multi-Model Ensembles • Climate forecast product improvements • COLA has 7 speakers lined up for the NCEP venue • NCEP has 5 speakers lined up for the COLA venue and 1 for the NCEP venue • The seminar series will commence in September. Speaker list is available.

10. Risks on MME System • Lack of a National Strategy on MME, including insufficient (US) computer resources for generating hindcast data sets • Lack of a concept of operations • MOUs with partners (International and US) for exchanges of operational models and real time forecast data • NCAR and NASA have their own time lines for model development • CTB resource limitations • Insufficient computer resources to run hindcasts for other organizations • Skill assessments • Post-processing, calibration, consolidation, and preparation for operations

11. Budget Issues • Can only make the transition activities work with full CPO support for the CFS, the CTB and related transition activities O2R Support – people, data access, helpdesk, training CFS next Reanalysis (1979-2007) CFS next Retrospective Forecasts (1981-2007) AO for selected topics

12. Appendix

13. R&D –vs – Transition ? • Transition costs have been, and still are, under- resourced • Within an era of constant or diminishing dollars, R&D and transition needs will likely be competing with each other. Now R&D Transition Future ? ? ? R&D R&D R&D Transition Transition Transition

14. CTB Seminar Series • COLA Speakers at NCEP • 1. Cristiana Stan - Estimation of the limit of predictability in stratosphere vs troposphere using CFS  • 2. Ben Kirtman - Multi-model ensemble ENSO prediction with CCSM and CFS • 3. Kathy Pegion - Potential predictability of tropical intraseasonal variability in the NCEP CFS • 4. Bohua Huang - Evolution of CFS bias in the Atlantic basin using the CFS hindcasts • 5. Renguang Wu - Surface latent heat flux and its relationship with SST in the NCEP • CFS simulations and retrospective forecasts • 6. Zeng-Zhen Hu - CFS hindcast skill as related to the mean state • 7. Julia Manganello - Heat and momentum flux-correction experiments with CFS • NCEP Speakers at COLA • 1. Augustin Vintzileos - Subseasonal prediction with the NCEP CFS: Forecast skill and prediction barriers for Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations • 2. Yan Xue - NCEP's GODAS and Ocean Monitoring Products • 3. Wanqiu Wang – Sources of tropical SST bias in the operational CFS. • 4. Lindsay Williams – NAMAP 2 and CFS Model Resolution • 5. Soo-Hyun Yoo– Simulation of the global monsoon with CFS • NCEP Speakers at NCEP • 1. Huug van den Dool - Verification of daily forecasts by the CFS (the 2004 version)

15. COLA Scientists Using CFS There are currently 10 COLA scientists who are actively experimenting with or diagnosing CFS: • 7 on the CTB Joint Seminar Series • 2 PhD students • 1 summer intern There are 2 other scientists and 1 other PhD student who are planning to begin work with CFS before the end of this year. Several other COLA scientists have examined the CFS hindcasts or CMIP simulations in their work. 

16. Climate Information: Responding to User Needs CPC/CTB participants: Ed O’Lenic Mel Gelman “Future Climate Forecast Products from CPC” New Environmental Forecast Products Major fisheries regime change likely Major fires Agricultural production at 50%, blowing dust Health warning: Limit outdoor activities; expect brownouts A national workshop sponsored by the University of Marylandin partnership with NOAA, NASA, and the American Meteorological Society Workshop Co-Chairmen:James R. Mahoney, Environmental Consultant and former Director, U.S. Climate Change Science Program (2002 – 2006) Antonio J. Busalacchi, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland The Earth System will experience real climate change over the next 50 years, substantially exceeding the scope of natural variability. A paramount question facing society is how to adapt to these changes. Success will require unprecedented collaborations and powerful partnerships between climate scientists and the consumers of climate information The University of Maryland, College Park invites you to attend a two-day workshop at their Inn and Conference Center, October 22-23, 2007. Swimming and Fishing restrictions Air quality alerts – 75% of days Frequent drought and Asian dust threats continue Tropical bacteria alerts Expect fisheries downturn; health threats Possible Threats-Summer 2020: hot, dry and unhealthy