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Authoritarian Modernization in Russia: Ideas, Institutions, and Policies

Authoritarian Modernization in Russia: Ideas, Institutions, and Policies. Vladimir Gel’man Aleksanteri Conference 28 October 016. Authoritarian Modernization in Russia….

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Authoritarian Modernization in Russia: Ideas, Institutions, and Policies

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  1. Authoritarian Modernization in Russia:Ideas, Institutions, and Policies Vladimir Gel’man Aleksanteri Conference 28 October 016

  2. Authoritarian Modernization in Russia… • Thebook: just published by Routledge as a part of CoE-directed new book series, Studies in Contemporary Russia(four books already appeared, some are on the way); • E-book is available at the library of the University of Helsinki (pdf format); • Collective product of CoE cluster 2, “Authoritarian Market Society as a Challenge”; • Eleven chapters contributed by both Finnish and Russian scholars (Helsinki, Jyvaskyla, EUSP, HSE)

  3. Authoritarian Modernization in Russia… • “Authoritarian modernization” – a mode of achievement of socio-economic progress (growth and development) under an authoritarian regime; • “Modernization” is understood here as a “narrow” elite-driven technocratic project; • Recent “success stories” – South Korea (1972-1987); Chile under Pinochet: post-Mao China, etc.; • To what extent this project is feasible for present-day Russia and “Why Russia is Not South Korea” (Guriev, Zhuravskaya, 2010)? • Choices in favor of this project in Russia were made every time since 1991

  4. Authoritarian Modernization in Russia… • Strong intellectual advocacy of “authoritarian modernization” from debates of the 1960s (Huntington, 1968) to present day (Popov, 2014); • Arguments – reducing risks of political instability and populist policies as side effects of democratization; • … but the evidence is mixed: “for every Lee Kwan Yew of Singapore, there are many like Mobutu Sese Seku of the Congo” (Rodrick, 2010), great diversity among autocracies (Przeworski et al., 2000); • Post-Communist Russia is neither Singapore, nor Congo: some advancements of socio-economic developments in the 2000s, but also many shortcomings and, finally, questioning if not denial of “authoritarian modernization” project after 2014

  5. Authoritarian Modernization in Russia… • Why the evidence of “authoritarian modernization” is so mixed and uneven: • (1) structure-induced legacies of the past – previous trajectory of socio-economic development, quality of bureaucracy and of the state; • (2) agency-driven choices: varieties of authoritarian regimes and institutions as well as of threats to their survival; • (3) agency-driven choices: ideas and perceptions of political leaders and policy-makers, which drive their policy choices

  6. Authoritarian Modernization in Russia… • … and what about Russia? • (1) Structure-induced factors: relatively developed country in terms of GDP/per capita, human development, etc. – Russia was already “modernized” well before post-Soviet period; • But: • Poor quality of bureaucracy and of the state, partly inherited from the past and aggravated in post-Soviet period – obstacles to the rule of law; • Semi-peripheral position in the global economy and relative international isolation (low linkages with the West) – obstacles to global integration;

  7. Authoritarian Modernization in Russia… • (2) agency-driven choices - electoral authoritarian regime as a consequence of failed democratization and flawed economic reforms under Gorbachev and Yeltsin; • Combination of worst elements of both democracy and authoritarianism: • Defects of democracy - “political business cycles”, “distributional coalitions”, “veto players” are in place; • Defects of authoritarianism – lack of political competition and accountability, intentional building of inefficient institutions; • Negative effects of rent-seeking and bad governance skyrocketed

  8. Authoritarian Modernization in Russia… • (3) agency driven choices: ideas – relatively negligible role vis-à-vis interests in the post-Communist world (Hanson, 2010; Hale, 2015); • “good Soviet Union” – a normative ideal for current Russia’s rulers (retrospectively oriented worldviews)? • Perceptions of existential threat from the West, focus on information manipulations; • 2014 - a major turn from economic development to geopolitical agenda?

  9. Authoritarian Modernization in Russia… • “King’s dilemma” – economic development caused demand for political changes (2011-12 protests in Russia); • “Politician’s dilemma” (Geddes, 1994) – no way for full-fledged reforms, only on a limited scale (“pockets of efficiency”); • Challenge of unfulfilled promises – ambitious plans, which cannot be implemented properly; • … and the challenge of mediocrity (too high self-estimations, too low performance)

  10. Authoritarian Modernization in Russia… • Controversies of post-Soviet authoritarian modernization project: • Ideas: “modernization” as a technological devise for legitimation of political status quo (and ideas barely met reality); • Political and economic institutions – poor protection of property rights, lack of the rule of law, special interests rules; • Policies – “insulation” of government not always led to success stories: mixed record; • To what extent post-Soviet achievements (at least, until 2014) were made because of authoritarian modernization project or despite to it?

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