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Changes in NAO and ENSO 3.4 and Their Effects on U.S. Climate

Changes in NAO and ENSO 3.4 and Their Effects on U.S. Climate. by Elise Lancaster METEO 497A April 22, 2003. Outline. Introduction Methodology Results Other Research Possibilities Conclusion. Introduction “The Idea”. Find the largest 2-3 month differences in NAO and ENSO 3.4

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Changes in NAO and ENSO 3.4 and Their Effects on U.S. Climate

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  1. Changes in NAO and ENSO 3.4 and Their Effects on U.S. Climate by Elise Lancaster METEO 497A April 22, 2003

  2. Outline • Introduction • Methodology • Results • Other Research Possibilities • Conclusion

  3. Introduction“The Idea” • Find the largest 2-3 month differences in NAO and ENSO 3.4 • Note temperature and precipitation patterns of the month after the change

  4. Methodology • Analyze NAO and ENSO 3.4 monthly values • Time Period: Nov - Apr (1950-present) • Data • NAO ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52dg/data/indices/tele_index.nhhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao.html • ENSO ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52dg/data/indices/sstoi.indiceshttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/index.html

  5. Methodology • Calculate 2 and 3-month changes in values • Examples • 2-month: Dec – Nov, Apr – Mar • 3-month: Jan – Nov, Apr – Feb • Determine largest changes/differences – use the most common month

  6. Methodology • Plot composites of the next month’s temperature and precipitation (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/USclimate/USclimdivs.html)

  7. Results • Graphs of values • Composite U.S. temperature and precipitation maps • Observations of the composites

  8. Largest NAO 2-month Negative (–) Changes

  9. NAO 2-month – ChangesTemperature • Warmer in eastern two-thirds of U.S. • Cooler in Northwest

  10. NAO 2-month – ChangesPrecipitation • Dry in Southeast, lower Midwest, Rockies, and CA/OR • Wet in Great Lakes (especially MN/WI) and Ohio Valley

  11. Largest NAO 2-month Positive (+) Changes

  12. NAO 2-month + ChangesTemperature • Warmer over majority of U.S. • Warmest in western states • Cooler in Northeast and on Gulf of Mexico coast

  13. NAO 2-month + ChangesPrecipitation • Dry in Northwest, CA, TX, OK, MO, AR, Great Lakes, Southeast, and Northeast • Wet in central Midwest, Southwest, and Ohio Valley

  14. Largest NAO 3-month Negative (–) Changes

  15. NAO 3-month – ChangesTemperature • Warmer in Northeast, Northwest, Great Lakes, and Rockies • Cooler in Midwest and Gulf of Mexico coast

  16. NAO 3-month – ChangesPrecipitation • Dry in Northwest, Southeast, upper Midwest, and New England • Wet in Southwest, parts of Midwest, and PA region

  17. Largest NAO 3-month Positive (+) Changes

  18. NAO 3-month + Changes Temperature • Warmer on east coast and western U.S. • Cooler in Midwest

  19. NAO 3-month + ChangesPrecipitation • Dry in Southwest and Northeast • Wet in Ohio River Valley and upper Midwest

  20. Largest ENSO 2-month Negative (–) Changes

  21. ENSO 2-month – ChangesTemperature • Warmer in Northwest, upper/lower Midwest, CA coast, and southern FL • Cooler in Midatlantic, Ohio Valley, and Southeast

  22. ENSO 2-month – ChangesPrecipitation • Dry in TX, FL, and upper Midwest • Wet in Northeast and Ohio River Valley

  23. Largest ENSO 2-month Positive (+) Changes

  24. ENSO 2-month + ChangesTemperature • Warmer in Southeast, NM, OK, and northern TX • Cooler in Northwest, upper Midwest, ME

  25. ENSO 2-month + ChangesPrecipitation • Dry in Southwest, Rockies, and FL • Wet in Great Lakes, Ohio River Valley, OR, WA, MS, and AL

  26. Largest ENSO 3-month Negative (–) Changes

  27. ENSO 3-month – ChangesTemperature • Warmer in Northwest, Midwest, and Northeast • Cooler in Southeast, Midatlantic, and CA

  28. ENSO 3-month – ChangesPrecipitation • Dry in TX and surroundings, upper Midwest, and FL • Wet in Ohio River Valley, Northeast, Great Lakes, and CA/OR

  29. Largest ENSO 3-month Positive (+) Changes

  30. ENSO 3-month + ChangesTemperature • Warmer in Southwest and FL • Cooler in Northwest and upper Midwest

  31. ENSO 3-month + ChangesPrecipitation • Dry in Southwest, Rockies, and FL • Wet in MN, Great Lakes, and Midatlantic

  32. Other Research Possibilities • Same process, but by month • See monthly trends, not just most extreme trends • Note similar trends between NAO and ENSO

  33. Conclusion • Trends are evident in NAO and ENSO monthly “jumps” • Trends can be used in long range forecasting

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