Funded under the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme Contract Number: 244031

1. Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe Testing policy robustness using the Integrated Assessment Platform For further information contact Jill Jäger(email: jill.jaeger@seri.at) or visit the project website (www.climsave.eu) Funded under the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme Contract Number: 244031

2. Aim and definition • Examine whether adaptation responses are robust: → Benefits across sectors, scenarios and spatial scales; → Improvement in human well-being through a reduction of vulnerability to climate and socio-economic change. • Sectors: food provision, water exploitation, flooding, biodiversity, land use intensity and land use diversity. • Four climate scenarios and eight socio-economic scenarios. • Robustness across scale: comparing the results for Europe with those for Scotland.

3. Testing method • Group adaptation options according to policy archetypes. • Set slider for each measure to the maximum amount that is credible for each socio-economic scenario. • Run the Integrated Assessment Platform for each scenario: • without any adaptation; and • with the adaptation options for each of the policy archetypes for 2050s timeslice. • Compare the total number of vulnerable people before and after adaptation. • Adaptation options that are not modelled in IA Platform were qualitatively assessed through expert judgement.

4. Policy archetypes • Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA): promotes the integrity and health of ecosystems and habitats so that nature retains capacity for adapting to changing complex pressures and conditions. • Market-based Adaptation (MbA): fund raising/market mobilisationfor adaptation activities; efficient allocation of funds to avoid climate change related damages; promotion of adaptation by various stakeholders; and sharing of financial risks.

5. Policy archetypes • Technology-based Adaptation (TbA): technology such as irrigation, flood defences and advanced early warning systems. • People-based Adaptation (PbA): human and social capital, through education and awareness-raising, and building of networks to respond to climate change and changing institutions.

6. Example results for Europe Number of vulnerable people (2050s):

7. Example results for Scotland Number of vulnerable people (2050s):

8. Reflection on results • Policy archetypes are a useful approach to testing the robustness of combinations of adaptation options using the Integrated Assessment Platform and expert judgment. • Scotland: People-based Adaptation seems more robust than Ecosystem-based, Market-based and Technology-based. • Europe: People-based and Ecosystem-based Adaptation are more robust than Market-based and Technology-based Adaptation. • The method could be further developed to assess the robustness of combinations of different elements of the policy archetypes.