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International Cooperation in Times of Global Crisis

International Cooperation in Times of Global Crisis. Onur SAZAK Istanbul Policy Center (IPC) October 18-19, 2012. Turkey is strongly in favor of a multilateral framework to ensure that the commitments on a national level a r e lasting

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International Cooperation in Times of Global Crisis

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  1. International Cooperation in Times of Global Crisis Onur SAZAK IstanbulPolicy Center (IPC) October 18-19, 2012

  2. Turkey is strongly in favor of a multilateral framework to ensure that the commitments on a national level are lasting • There are a few international organizations that would assume this role • Turkey views G20 as the most able among the existing international organizations because it is one of the few multilateral bodies that include both least developed countries and emerging economies • The IMF can also serve this purpose given that the fast-growing countries such as BRICs and Turkey will have more representational and decisionmaking powers in the upcoming decade

  3. GDP Growth in ConstantPrices

  4. Per Capita GDP (current US$)

  5. Other Major Accomplishments • Reduction in inflation • Reduction in public debt • Fiscal discipline • Strong regulation and supervision of the banking sector • Major change in economic institutions under the influence and guidance of EU anchor • independent regulatory authorities • competition law • started with Custom Union Agreement

  6. StructuralChange

  7. Share of exports in GDP

  8. Composition of exports

  9. Sophistication of Exports

  10. Economic Complexity Index • Another indicator of export sophistication as Economic Complexity Index. As of 2009, in exports, Turkey ranks 43 out of 128. • According to the Index, Turkey exports are more complex than those of the BRICs; Brazil, Russia and India, yet less than China, Thailand, Romania, Bulgaria, etc. • Between 1968-2008 in terms of change in economic complexity Turkey ranks 10 out of 128. This corresponds to an 80 % increase in Turkey’s economic complexity over the last 4 decades • In the last 10 years Turkey recorded 10% increase in its economic complexity • Turkey ranks 15 out of 128 in terms of it’s projected contributions to global GDP growth by 2020 *Source: İl İlDışTicaretPotansiyeliAraştırması, DışTicaretMüsteşarlığıhttp://www.ekonomi.gov.tr/upload/7EF56F48-D8D3-8566-452092D48A1F70B1/kitapmakro.pdf *Source: Ricardo Hausmann, César A. Hidalgo, et al. The Atlas of Economic Complexity Mapping Paths to Prosperity. 2011

  11. Economic Complexity Index RANK COUNTRY INCOME 2009/$ 1 JAPAN 39,738 2GERMANY 40,670 5 AUSTRIA 45,562 6 FINLAND 44,581 7 SINGAPORE 36,537 8 CZECH REPUBLIC 18,139 12 KOREA17,078 19 ISRAEL 26,256 20 MEXICO 8,143 24 HONG KONG 30,065 25 POLAND 11,273 26 CROATIA 14,222 27 ROMANIA 7,500 29 CHINA 3,744 31 THAILAND 3,893 35 PORTUGAL PRT 21,903 40 BULGARIA 6,423 41 CANADA 39,599 43 TURKEY 8,215 46 RUSSIAN FEDERATION 8,684 51 INDIA 1,192 52 BRAZIL 8,230

  12. Average Ubiquity and GDP per capita, selected countries, 2009

  13. Import Dependence of Turkey’s Production Structure • Turkey has been facing is large current account deficits • Intermediate goods imports of Turkey have increased 2.5 times more than the increase in manufacturing output between 1994-2008. • Share of traditional industries such as textiles and garments has decreased and the shares of motor vehicles, basic metals and fabricated metal products in manufacturing have increased • Share of imported inputs and raw materials in the total has increased from 56 percent in 2002 to 62 percent in 2007

  14. Conclusion • Sustainable economic growth • Sophisticated export • Current account deficit • Institutionalization, democratization, EU anchor

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