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Order and Chaos. Explaining Regional Variation in the World-System. I. Regional Differences in World Politics. Peace and Conflict 1. War and Peace “Clusters”. War Clusters: 1990s. Clusters of Peace as of 1992. 2. Mass Killing Clusters: 1900-1925. 2. Mass Killing Clusters: 1925-1950.
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Order and Chaos Explaining Regional Variation in the World-System
I. Regional Differences in World Politics • Peace and Conflict 1. War and Peace “Clusters”
4. Key Points • Certain areas are conflict-prone (clusters) • Location changes over time Therefore, cause must also be something that changes over time
B. Economics • Poverty and Prosperity: GDP Per Capita
2. Social Welfare a. Hunger
3. Economic System a. Today: Clustering of Property Rights (Capitalism)
4. Key points • Clusters on major economic indicators • Location changes over time: expansion and contraction around edges of clusters • Overlap between Economic / War clusters Related?
C. Government • South America or World change. 2006:
D. Political Regions 1. “Zones of Chaos” – War-prone, poor, authoritarian, unstable, deadly 2. “Zones of Stability” – Peaceful, wealthy, healthy, democratic 3. Questions: How do these zones form and change?
II. A Clash of Civilizations? “The fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. Nation states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations. The clash of civilizations will dominate global politics. The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.” Samuel P. Huntington
A. Assumptions • Conflict over values not power or resources! • Key value divide changes over time • Colonialism and Nationalism: West vs. the Rest • 20th Century Ideologies: Fascism vs. Democracy, Communism vs. Capitalism • Post Cold War: Cultural Identities • Key actors = civilizations, not states • Culture Clash Internal / External Conflict • Religion = Indivisible Stakes • Identity trumps other concerns
b. “Identity” determines the rest • West – Latin America divide: ethnicity? • Sinic civilization: Originally called “Confucian.” What is the basis for this bloc? • African civilization: Essentially what was left after drawing other civilizations
7. Universalism = Conflict • There are no “universal” political desires • Modernization ≠ Westernization
B. Implication: Internal Unity = Strength • Don’t be multicultural • Enemies will try to foment intra-societal conflict • Beware immigration from other civilizations
2. Test: Does Immigration Cause Internal Violence? a. Europe Does High % foreign-born cause more conflict?
b. US: Patterns of Immigrationi. 1966-1970 period of riots: unrelated
d. Areas of inter-civilizational migration: Which civilizations should be weak?
C. Implication: Pushing Democracy and Capitalism = Civilizational Conflict • Democracy is Western value system: Separation of church and state, rule of law, social pluralism, representative bodies, individualism • Market capitalism is Western: Competition, property rights
3. Test: Is Democracy “Western”? • a. World Values Survey – Questions about democracy, human rights, politics, religion, etc. • Key Dimensions • Democratic Performance: • Democracies are indecisive and have too much squabbling • Democracies aren’t good at maintaining order • Democratic Ideals: • Democracy may have its problems but it is better than any other form of government • I approve of having a democratic political system
b. Results – i. Democratic Performance/Ideals: No Difference!
ii. Other surveys reveal… • Important differences do exist within Islamic civilization
D. Implication: “Fault Lines” and Culture Clashes Predict Conflict
a. Interstate War (Bloody Borders) • Middle East is unusually prone to war • Region is a better predictor than religion: non-Islamic ME states fight as much as Islamic ME states, and Islamic non-ME states fight as much as non-Islamic non-ME states • Interstate wars within civilizations (since 1950): • Sinic and Buddhist have more than expected by chance • West has fewer than expected by chance • Islam and other civilizations are about average
Which civilizations fight the most? Islamic civilization has plenty of conflicts…. …but other civilizations have more “civilizational” conflicts!
b. Internal War (Bloody Innards) • ME region is more likely to experience political terror and human rights violations BUT region again outperforms religion • Exception: Catholic countries experience higher levels of repression than non-Catholic neighbors • Oil wealth correlates with both repression and civil war around the world • Some majority-Muslim countries are democracies (Turkey, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Lebanon) – but most are poor and poor countries tend to experience violence and repression
c. Demographics of Islam • What percentage of Arabs are Muslim? • About 90% • What percentage of Muslims are Arab? • About 20% • The largest Muslim country is… • Indonesia • Where do Muslims live? • Only 33% live in the Middle East • 25% in South Asia, 20% in Africa
d. Does Islam “Teach Violence?” i. Violence not a necessary part of faith: • Universal Brotherhood [49:13] • No Forced “Conversion” [2:256] • Peaceful Co-existence [60:8-9] • Jihad = multiple meanings ii. Religion used to justify political actions • Iranian clergy vs. elected officials • Osama bin Laden’s declaration of jihad
2. Statistical evidence on “Fault Lines” a. Little evidence of cultural wars 1819-1989 b. Post-1989: i. States of different civilizations LESS likely to fight than states of same civilizations • Controls for contiguity, power, democracy ii. Ethnic diversity ≠ civil war • Controls for economic growth c. Did the end of the Cold War mark a new era of conflict?
ii. No change in ratio of “civilizational” to non-civilizational conflicts – and both have declined
E. Implication: Balance of Power Shifting • West will decline: Demographics and Development (recall Power Transition predictions) • Beware an Islamic-Sinic alliance
F. Do people in different civilizations have important value differences?