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Technology Space and Market Space Interaction

Technology Space and Market Space Interaction. Yanze Xie May Zeineldin Ujjwala Darvemula Vitaliy Dorogan. What is the product ?. Large grain polysilicon thin film Solar cell Other possibilities ?. What competitive advantage do we have ?. If solar cell is the product: Low cost

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Technology Space and Market Space Interaction

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  1. Technology Space and Market Space Interaction YanzeXie May Zeineldin UjjwalaDarvemula VitaliyDorogan

  2. What is the product ? • Large grain polysilicon thin film • Solar cell • Other possibilities ?

  3. What competitive advantage do we have ? • If solar cell is the product: • Low cost • High efficiency

  4. Polysilicon MEMS devices Photovoltaic Industry (solar cells) Thin film Transistors Semiconductor industry Customer Users Government Polysilicon Market Assessment

  5. Little bit of history Polysilicon suppliers ===►Semiconductor industry Stable supply chain for 40 years Polysilicon proposition was higher than demand =►low price Photovoltaic industry emerges =►demand increases 2004 - Semiconductor polysilicon demand up 15% and Photovoltaic polysilicon demand up 45% resulted in shortage of polysilicon on the market Polysilicon price grew from $30 per kg in 2004 to $80-100 per kg in 2006

  6. Polysilicon Market growth http://www.micromagazine.com/archive/06/03/industrynews.html

  7. 2006 Polysilicon Market • Polysilicon producers: • Hemlock • REC Silicon • Wacker • MEMC • Tokuyama • Mitsubishi • Sumitomo http://www.solarinsights.com/summary.htm

  8. 2006 Announcements • Existing polysilicon producers have announced plans to invest $5 billion to construct new production facilities over the next 5 years • New companies employing technological variations of existing technology have announced investments of $4.4 billion in new facilities over the next 5 years • New companies employing new technologies have announced plans to invest $1.1 billion over the next 5 years http://www.solarinsights.com/summary.htm

  9. Polysilicon Supply vs Demand Forecast Scenarios of PV industry growth:(1) Moderate growth 32%, (2) Anticipated growth 42%, (3) Accelerated growth 46%. http://www.solarinsights.com/summary.htm

  10. Solar cells Home Power Magazine Solar Wind Water Design Build.mht March,12,2008 Solar cells convert the solar energy to electrical energy through the “Photovoltaic” phenomenon. The photovoltaic phenomenon occurs when light incident on a material liberates electrons from their orbit. Electrons are free to move and constitute an electric current Solar cells are used in arrays to satisfy voltage and/or current requirements which can not be achieved using a single solar cell.

  11. Solar Cell Fabrication • There are three types of crystalline solar cells: - Single-crystal silicon. - Polycrystalline silicon. - Gallium Arsenide. • polycrystalline silicon solar cells produce slightly lower efficiencies (highest reported efficiency for polycrystalline silicon is 20.3% vs 24.7% for single crystalline silicon). • However they are cheaper and stronger and therefore can be made thinner.

  12. Solar Cell Fabrication • Gallium Arsenide solar cells have higher efficiencies (25.1%) but high fabrication costs. • Limited to smaller scale systems. • The available technology facilitates the mass production of polycrystalline silicon solar cells in comparison to Gallium Arsenide solar cells.

  13. Solar Cell Fabrication • Small grain boundarieslimits the efficiency of polycrystallinesilicon solar cells. • The invented technique fabricates large grain polycrystalline silicon which will increase the efficiency. • The invented technique occurs at low temperature. • The increase in efficiency does not involve the increase in price.

  14. Market of Solar Cells • Oil prices are increasing  creates a rise in the demand for renewable energy sources. • Profit from solar cells can be explained by the fact that solar cells have no running cost. • Solar cells generate enough revenue to match their installation cost in approximately 3 to 4 years • Solar cells have a lifespan of around 25 years.

  15. Market of Solar Cells • The current cost of solar cells it averages at about 5 dollars per peak watt. • The cost of the auxiliary devices such as batteries,etc. when included the price becomes 10-15 dollars per peak watt. • In September 2007 Colorado State University reported solar panels for as less as $1 per watt.

  16. Common Photovoltaic Applications 1-Large Scale Power Generation www.rise.org.au/dist/ March,12,2008

  17. Common Photovoltaic Applications 2-Water Pumping www.dkimages.com/.../Solar-Energy-11.html March,12,2008

  18. Common Photovoltaic Applications 3-Electric Fences www.tnhfencing.com/ March,12,2008

  19. Common Photovoltaic Applications 4-Commercial Lighting www.ubergizmo.com/15/archives/2007/12/powerge... March,12,2008 www.sunlightsolar.com.au/ March,12,2008

  20. Common Photovoltaic Applications 5-Residential Power www.solar-tec.com/ March,12,2008

  21. Expected Solar Application in 2010

  22. Market Size • The global market for solar cells is expected to increase from $12,908.8 million in 2007 to $32,252.3 million in 2012 (a compound annual growth rate of 14.9% ). • The percentage of the solar cells market designated to silicon is 89 % in 2007 dropping slightly to a significant 79% by 2013.

  23. Market Size

  24. The Top 5 companies of Photovoltaic • Sharp Solar (Japan) . • Q-Cells (Germany). • Kyocera (Japan). • Suntech (China). • Sanyo (Japan)

  25. Application to Thin FilmTransistor(TFT) for Flat Panel Display(FPD) Yanze Xie

  26. Outline • FPD market space -Introduction & market context; -Size and growth. • Technology matches to the market -Perfective; -Continuous ; -Immediate.

  27. Introduction • FPD is both product and technology • Main technologies include -Liquid-crystal display (LCD); -Organic light-emitting diode display (OLED); -Plasma display panel (PDP). • Customer of TFT are LCD &OLED • Customer of the new technology is TFT • Market of our product = market of LCD &OLED

  28. Market Context • FPD grew slowly starting from early last decade • Cathode ray tube (CRT) had been leading the market • 2005 saw the first time surpassing, and account for > 50% overall display market • Prospective market analysis are positive • Almost all large-area FPD manufacturing is in Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and more recently China

  29. Size and Growth-1 • Historical research shown an increase of TFT-LCD industry in the last decade • From 0 in 1992, Taiwan industry value had reached $2 billion in 2000. Promotion of TFT-LCD industry, value increase in last decade. (http://www.itri.org.tw/eng/research/cno/re-cno-b003.jsp update to 1/18/2008)

  30. Size and Growth-2 • Same growing paced by world wide market • Figure right: 25% grow rate on FPD market was prospected • Growth confirmed by report from micro-magazine: 80% of FPD market is owned by LCD, by the year 2007 Scale and prospects of the global FPD product market. (http://www.itri.org.tw/eng/news/commentary-show.jsp)

  31. Size and Growth-3 • Another top customer for TFT is OLED • Spent years to catch up with LCD, finally close the distance • Market forecasts was $520m according to iSuppli, $491m to DisplaySearch 2005; or about 10% growth over 2004 • Figure left-prospect for ww OLED market Prospect for the worldwide OLED panel market, 2004-2012. (iSuppli Corp, Organic Light-Emitting Diode Displays, 1H 2006)

  32. Size and Growth-4 • This figure provide a clear look of OLED market sharing • The clear leader of OLED market in 2005 -Taiwan (27m units) -Korea (22m units) -Japan (8m units) Quartered-year look at OLED market share. http://fantasticplastic.org/2006/02/28/

  33. Technology tips for the market-perfective match • Active-matrix LCD (AMLCD) dominates the LCD segment, which has 80% of FPD market • In AM-LCD, each pixel is controlled by its own transistor switch • Traditional fabs these switches on a-Si film • Polysilicon TFT advances of a-Si TFT, see right table http://nina.ecse.rpi.edu/tft/research_summary/sld021.htm

  34. Technology tips for the market-continuous match • OLED is advanced of LCD most fundamentally by looking great, image right is OLED in 2005 • OLED no need backlight making thinner, so more applications • Operating speed 100 times higher than LCD • All made possible by using 2-5 TFT per pixel - exponential need Samsung Developed 21" OLED Panel for Digital TV in 2005. (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php)

  35. Technology tips for the market-immediate match • FPD has extremely competitive and price sensitive market update • Cost control involve most material reduction – units cost and processing • Major strategy planed to focused on technology of LCD and FPD advancement • A successive low temperature polysilicon (LTPS) process would achieve FPD significant advantage.

  36. Technology tips for the market-immediate match (cont.) • Successive LTPS process would - Lead to transistor fabs ~100 folded mobility than a-Si TFT; - Allow smaller TFTs and higher aperture ration; - Enable the direct integration of LCD driver circuits onto the substrate and lowe costs; - Lead to higher luminance and contrast • Variety more other LCD applications: notebook and desktop PCs monitors, cell phones, etc.

  37. MEMS MARKET eed.gsfc.nasa.gov/562/SA_MEMs.htm, ma eed.gsfc.nasa.gov/562/SA_MEMs.htm

  38. Polysilicon film in MEMS device fabrication Source: http://www.njnano.org/pasi/event/talks/mansfield.pdf

  39. MEMS application in biomedical industry MEMS application in automotive industry Google images.com

  40. Dominant players in MEMS market http://www.eetimes.eu/consumer/197006983

  41. Estimated total market for MEMS products, 2004 -2009 http://www.enablingmnt.com/html/nexus_market_report.html

  42. Application fields in MEMS market 2004 - 2009 http://www.enablingmnt.com/html/nexus_market_report.html

  43. Thank you Questions???

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