School Roll Projections: Ratios of pupils from new build developments – a direct method

1. School Roll Projections:Ratios of pupils from new build developments – a direct method Jennifer Boag Senior Research Officer Falkirk Council September 2008

2. Features of the Scottish education system Defined school catchments Placing requests Single annual P1 intake Denominational and non-denominational system Primary – aged 5-11; secondary aged 12+ Pupil ratios from new build

3. Falkirk school roll projections method Project the number of P1s Roll forward existing rolls Add estimate of pupils from new build Pupil ratios from new build

4. Why revise the pupil ratios? Previous ratios based on 1987 study Concern about the number of pupils being generated by new build developments Increasing amount of new build in area Complaint from developer about unilateral change to ratio being used Pupil ratios from new build

5. New method of calculating pupil ratios (1) Identify all new build developments under construction or completed within the last 10 years Match children on school rolls by address to new build Calculate the ratio of children to new build on each development Pupil ratios from new build

6. New method of calculating pupil ratios (2) First carried out in 1999 Repeated 2002 and 2005 – with increasing sophistication Planned repeat autumn 2008 Pupil ratios from new build

7. New method of calculating pupil ratios (3) Outcome of 2005 exercise – current ratios per house Pupil ratios from new build

8. New method of calculating pupil ratios (4) In 1999 only sites of 10 or more houses considered Extended to sites of four or more in 2002 Increased use of GIS to identify houses and flats Pupil ratios from new build

10. Example of housing sites information

11. Example of ratio tables

12. New method of calculating pupil ratios (5) Alternative methods of calculating ratios: - Include all new build addresses Dividing the total number of pupils in each category living in new build addresses by the total number of new houses. Averaging all the individual site ratios for each category of pupil. Pupil ratios from new build

13. New method of calculating pupil ratios (6) - Only include those sites where there was at least one child attending a school of any type i.e. excluding all sites with no pupils. Dividing the total number of pupils of each category by the total number of houses on sites with at least one child. Averaging the site ratios of those sites with at least one child of any category Pupil ratios from new build

14. New method of calculating pupil ratios (7) Excluding sites where there are no pupils of that category. Dividing the total number of pupils of each category living in new build by the total number of houses on sites where there are pupils of that category. Averaging the individual site ratios for each category of pupil where there were pupils of that category. Pupil ratios from new build

15. Results – for different types of ratios Pupil ratios from new build

16. Results – change over time (1) Non-denominational primary schools Pupil ratios from new build

17. Results – change over time (2) Non-denominational primary schools Pupil ratios from new build

18. Results – differences by area 2002 Pupil ratios from new build

19. Any questions? Pupil ratios from new build