Tropical Storm Fay

1. Tropical Storm Fay 1100L 21 Aug 2008 Al Mongeon Meteorologist

3. Windswath Forecast

4. Fay Expected To Move Back Over Florida...But Taking ItsTime. • At 1100 AM EDT, 1500z, the center of tropical storm Fay was located near latitude 29.3 north, longitude 80.8 west or about 15 miles, 20 km, east-northeast of Daytona beach Florida. • Fay has been stationary during the past several hours. However, slow motion toward the west-northwest is forecast to begin soon and continue for the next couple of days. On this track Fay is • Forecast to move slowly across the northern Florida peninsula today and be very near the gulf coast of the Florida panhandle by late Friday or early Saturday. • Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph, 95 km/hr, with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected before the center moves inland later today. A gradual weakening is forecast after Fay moves back over the Florida peninsula. • Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles, 240 km, from the center. There was a recent unofficial observation from the area just north of Ormond beach of a gust of 65 mph...105 km/hr. • Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb...29.35 inches.

5. Rainfall, Storm Surge • Fay is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across the central to northern portion of the Florida peninsula including the Florida panhandle, Southern Georgia, and southeastern Alabama with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible across the coastal areas of southern south Carolina. • Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible over southwest and southern Florida. Isolated storm total accumulations of 20 to 30 inches have been observed with this system over the east central coastal areas of Florida. • Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tides is possible along the east coast of Florida and Georgia to the north of the center of Fay.

6. Technical Discussion • There is basically nothing new to report. Fay has been meandering for the past 12 hours or so with little change in intensity. Latest minimum pressure reported by a reconnaissance plane was 994 mb and flight level winds support an initial intensity of 50 kts. • Satellite images show numerous rainbands and deep convection mainly to the northeast of the center with a well-defined upper-level outflow. • NWS Doppler radar clearly shows a spinning ring of convection with Doppler velocities of up to 67 knots at approximately 5000 feet. However Fay does not have an inner core. • Although the atmospheric conditions are quite favorable for strengthening the interaction with land should impede it. • No significant change in strength is forecast before the center moves inland within the next 12 hours or so. • Thereafter Fay should begin to weaken but a track father south than indicated could bring the center over the northeast gulf of Mexico. In this case Fay should not weaken as much as forecast and do not rule out the possibility of slight strengthening if the center of Fay remains over water longer than anticipated.

7. Technical Discussion • Steering currents have remained very light consequently Fay has barely moved since yesterday. Global models insist on the development of a high pressure system north of Fay. • This pattern should force the cyclone to move slowly toward the west-northwest or west a motion we have been forecasting but has not materialized yet. Nevertheless the developing steering pattern gives me no option but to forecast a turn to the left which should begin soon. • This is consistent with all global models and track guidance. Regardless of its exact track Fay will be moving rather slowly during the next several days posing a significant heavy rainfall and flood hazard to a very large area.