Environment and Security in Eastern Europe

1. Environment and Security in Eastern Europe Aleh Cherp, Ph.D., Central European University Alexios Antypas, Ph.D., Central European University

2. Environment and Security Linkages • Environment, Tensions, and Conflict • Stability and Trust Through Environmental Cooperation • Interaction Between Environmental and Security Policies and Measures • Environment and Instability Aspects of Security

3. Environment, Tensions, and Conflict • Environmental factors can aggravate existing tensions between and within states • Conflict arises over scarce natural resources, or when distribution is unequal • Scarcity may be absolute or relative • Social processes through which resources are distributed must be included in the environment and security framework • Violent conflict over resources is relatively rare, most tensions remain “sub-critical” • Sub-critical tensions bread hostility, distrust, and an unwillingness to co-operate

4. Stability and Trust through Environmental Co-operation • Co-operation over critical shared resources such as water has proven to foster stability in inter-state relations • Co-operation over low-tension issues (“no regrets” projects) can build trust • Especially appropriate for situations in which distrust and tension prevail • Legal regimes create an atmosphere of predictability and dialogue, and co-operation in critical areas such as information sharing and early warning systems

5. Interaction between Environmental and Security Policies and Measures • When elements of one policy area affects another: • Environmental impacts of peacetime military activities • Energy policy • Environmental policy integration in defence and foreign affairs policies poses significant opportunities

6. Environment and Instability Aspects of Security • Trends that undermine social stability and therefore state stability • Rapid demographic change • Human health crises • Mass migration • Environmental problems that undermine social institutions • Over-exploitation of resources → decline of rural economies • Environmental pollution → health problems, migration

7. Regional Context • 845,000 km2 • 60 million inhabitants • Wedged between “East” and “West” • Conflicts, tensions, and transformations: Transnistria, “Orange Revolution”, Governance in Belarus, Crimea, energy security issues

8. Security Issues in Eastern Europe

9. Geopolitical Context • European Union interests include: • Europeanization outside of the EU accession process • “to make a particular contribution to stability and good governance in our immediate neighbourhood and to promote a ring of well-governed countries to the East of the European Union….” • EU-Ukraine Action Plan, harmonization of laws, continued democratization and co-operation • EU-Moldova Action Plan, co-operation in helping settle Transnistria conflict • Environment as priority to help “avoid conflicts over scarce resources.” • Russian interests include: • Maintaining transit to and from Western and Central Europe • Protecting Russian minorities • Retaining political and economic influence

10. Economic and Demographic Indicators

11. Environmental Legacies and Challenges of Transition • The effects of Chernobyl • Soviet-era industrialization and environmental “hot spots” • Military legacies of the Soviet-era • Lack of attention to environmental issues and under-funding of state institutions • Intensive use of natural resources • Trade liberalization and consumerism • Environmental Sustainability Index: • Belarus: 47 out of 146 countries • Moldova: 58 out of 146 countries • Ukraine: 108 out of 146 countries

12. Interaction between Environment and Security Factors

13. Water Resources and Key Ecosystems

14. Environmental Hazards with Security Implications

15. Key Environmental Issues with Security Implications in Moldova • Water quality/drinking water • Most accessible groundwater hydrologically connected to Dniester, of which 50% is contaminated • Transboundary co-operation with Romania and Ukraine has been developing well and has further potential • Land degradation • 75% of Moldovan economy is linked to agriculture • 50% of agricultural lands are degrading • Hazardous waste • 1700-3000 tonnes of pesticides stored at 340 sites of which 80% are in poor condition and 25% pose transboundary pollution risks • Transnistria • Russian military depot at the Kolbasna rail station in Transnistria still holds around 20,000 tonnes of weapons and ammunition stockpiles, posing a severe environmental hazard

16. Security Issues with Environmental Implications in Moldova • Energy security • 98% of energy is imported, 70% of which is Russian natural gas • Energy intensity of the economy is 3-4 times global average • Poorly developed energy infrastructure • Energy costs are 1/3+ of GDP • Transnistria • Largest power plants are located in Transnistrian region • Source of water pollution; contains significant quantities of hazardous wastes and experiences large-scale illegal disposal • Transboundary co-operation on issues such as Dniester R. management complicated by conflict

17. Environment and Security Issues in Moldova

18. Criteria for ENVSEC Interventions • Give high priority to actions likely to build trust and foster mutual learning • Attempt to address more than one Environment and Security theme in the same actions • Avoid overlapping with other programmes • Draw on the unique capacity of the ENVSEC Initiative to deal with complex multidimensional issues

19. Summary of Issues • The geo-political position of Eastern Europe strongly affects the way security and environmental issues interact in the region • EE does not experience outright conflict but rather tensions that can be exacerbated by unattended environmental problems or calmed by co-operation over the environment • In the medium and long term the “East-West” divide, population decline, economic restructuring, and energy dependence will have the potential to heighten transboundary and internal tensions and will keep environment and security issues high on the political agenda

20. Thank you !