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Thinking about Nigeria

Thinking about Nigeria. Poverty Colonialism Oil curse Corruption Ethnic/religious cleavages Federalism Legitimacy. Ethnic/ Religious Cleavages. Ethnic groups : Hausa-Fulani (29%), Yoruba (21%), and Igbo(Ibo) (18%) Ijaw (10%) reside in the Niger delta area.

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Thinking about Nigeria

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  1. Thinking about Nigeria • Poverty • Colonialism • Oil curse • Corruption • Ethnic/religious cleavages • Federalism • Legitimacy

  2. Ethnic/ Religious Cleavages Ethnic groups: Hausa-Fulani (29%), Yoruba (21%), and Igbo(Ibo) (18%) Ijaw (10%) reside in the Niger delta area Religious Cleavages: 50% Muslim (mainly in the north); 40% Christian (Anglicans, Baptists, Pentecostal), 10% other traditional. Importantly – some tribes, such as Yoruba, while majority Christian, have sizeable non-Christian minorities Regional differences: North – Muslim and underdeveloped; South – Christian modern; Middle zone – mixed religion

  3. Nigeria is a rentier state 95% export revenues from oil Significant foreign company Involvement (e.g., Shell, Chevron) Member of OPEC The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) manages the state-owned oil industry.

  4. Thinking about Nigeria - again • Key questions • How is the legacy of colonialism reflected in Nigerian politics? • How has oil helped and hurt Nigeria? • What role does ethnicity play in reinforcing the country’s difficulties? • Why does Nigeria remain so poor? • How have alternations between civilian and military regimes exacerbated Nigeria’s problems?

  5. Nigeria History • Sokoto Caliphate 1800 – 1900 north Islamic • Yoruba, Oyo, Ifo and Benin kingdoms in south • 1860 – 1945 British Colonial rule • Indirect rule/ warrant chiefs • 1945 – 1960 move to independence • Increased inter-ethnic tensions • Anti-state sentiment

  6. History since Independence 1960 • First Republic parliament dominated by North • 1966 Military coup • 1967 – 1970 Biafran Civil War • 1975 another coup General Obasanjo sizes power • 1978-9 Second Republic new const. Federalism. Elections – President Shagari • 1983 - 1993 Military Coup/1993 return to civilian rule Third Republic/ another coup!! • 1993 – 1998 General Abacha

  7. Biafran War – 1967 – 1970 • 1 million died • Secessionist attempt by southeastern tribes

  8. Nigeria since Abacha • 1998 Abacha dies; General Adubakar brings back civilian rule; parties allowed to form again • 1999 Fourth Republic Obasanjo wins presidency; his party, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) wins assembly as well • 2003 Pres. Obansanjo wins reelection • 2007 April President UmaraYar’Adua (Adua) elected. PDP.

  9. Political Culture • Mass political culture • Elite culture • Non-electoral participation • Political parties and elections • The elections of 1999 • The elections of 2003 • The elections of 2007 - The Elections of 2011 April

  10. Political Culture • Urban v. Rural; English v. non-English • Ethnic/ religious • Military rule, corruption create apathy • Democratic value at odds with traditional views (esp. rural) • Elite depend on government largess • Interventionist state • Prebendalism (ethnic-based clients) • But more western democratic

  11. Political Activity • Lively press – esp. in Fourth Republic • Radio, TV important • Youth movements • Some IGs – Transition Monitoring Group – monitored 2003 elections • Currently press in anti-corruption mode • AIDS a major challenge

  12. Elections – 4 since 1999 • Political Parties – multi-party 2 major • People’s Democratic Party (PDP) Obasanjo, • Liberalization of economy, e.g., privatized telephone company; conservative on social values • In power since 1999 • All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) • Northern/ conservative associated with Abacha years • Alliance for Democracy (AD) • progressive

  13. Executive • American style president 4 y term • 2 term limit • National popular vote • President UmaraYar’Adua (PDP) • April 2007 -2010 died • Tradition of strong executive Obasanjo Yoruba, Christian, Former military YarAdua Fulani, Muslim Businessman

  14. President Goodluck Jonathan • Takes over after YarAdua’s death, May 2010 • Wins presidential election April 2011

  15. National Assembly of Nigeria House of Representatives Senate 109 members/ 4 y terms 3 senators represent each of 36 states (plus one for capital Abuja) First past the post PDP 76; ANPP 27 • 360 members/ 4 y terms • Last election April 2011 • First past the post • Single-member districts • PDP 223; ANPP 96

  16. Nigerian States - present 1996 – 37 States 1987 – 21 states 1963 - 4 regions

  17. Public Policy - Challenges • Democratization • History of strong executive: Obasanjo’s bid for 3rd term. Legislature challenging executive • Creation of INEC (Independent National Electoral Commission) 2002 • Since 1999 tradition of elections. How free?? • Relatively free press • Active though restricted judiciary • Economic development and structural adjustment policies • Oil revenues Rentier state • Debt relief – see Obasanjo’s 8/2000 letter • Population growth • Poverty and AIDS

  18. Challenges cont. • Legitimacy of government • North v. South • National identity?? • Sharia law in the north • Niger Delta violence • Evolving nature of federalism • Addressing corruption • Prebendalism (client/patron networks/ ethnic based)

  19. Describe two features of the Nigerian political system that keep it from being considered fully democratic.

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