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Counting the 7 Billion: The Future of Population and Housing Censuses. Internet Option in the 2010 Census of Korea. Challenges and Benefits of Using Modern Technologies. Ki-Jong Woo Commissioner Statistics Korea. Contents. M otivators. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
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Counting the 7 Billion: The Future of Population and Housing Censuses Internet Option in the 2010 Census of Korea Challenges and Benefits of Using Modern Technologies Ki-Jong Woo Commissioner Statistics Korea
Contents Motivators 1 2 3 4 5 Internet Option for the 2010 Census Internet Uptake Rates Data Quality Lessons Learned
$157.2M $112.1M $72.5M $46.8M 1995 2000 2005 2010 1$ = 1,150 Won (1) More adverse census-taking environment Risingcost of census-taking - on average, cost increases by 1.5 times between censuses A need to reduce the cost of census-taking
Changes in household patterns (2010) - one-person households : 23.9% - dual-earner households : 37.2% - elderly aged 65+ : 11.3% 23.9% 20.0% 15.5% 414 12.7% 317 222 164 (In ‘000) Making it difficult to interview households 1995 2000 2005 2010
3.6% 2.8% 2.2% 1.7% 2006 2007 2008 2009 < Economically Active Population Survey > Growing awareness of privacy - Increasing non-response rate More and more people are reluctant to cooperate with government
81.6% 80.6% 78.4% 72.2% 70.2% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 < Korea Internet Security Agency > (2) Opportunities for introducing modern technologies Internet penetration rate: - 81.6% (May, 2010) Improved quality of administrative data - Population register - Building register - New address system, etc.
Ample experience of conducting electronic surveys by Statistics Korea 3 (2005) 6 (2006) 25 27 (2009) (2010)
History Census Day Enumeration Period Census Questionnaire (1) Outline of the 2010 Census • Conducted every five years since 1925. • 2010 Population Census (18th ) • As of 0:00, November 1, 2010 • November 1 – 15 (15 days) • (e-Census : Oct. 22-31, 10 days) • 50 items(short form:19, long form:31)
Citizenship Low Birth Rate & Aging Society Year/Month of Arrival Multicultural Family Low Carbon Green growth Heating facility Social Participation Digital Broadcasting Main means of commuting Use of transportation means IT facilities Child care Number of children mothers plan to have Impairment care Social activities
119,000: 6,000 officials +113,000 enumerators Results Release Budget Workforce Labor cost $106.1M Publicity cost $11.0M 67.5% 7.0% 7.6% 17.9% Census activity & supplies $28.1M Data processing $11.9M • Preliminary: Dec. 2010 • Short form: Jul. 2011 / Long form : Oct. 2011 • $157.2 M • * 1995: $46.8M, 2000: $72.5M, 2005: $112.1M.
(2) Timeline for Internet Option Period Internet Option Preparatory Period Door-to-door Visits Oct. 19-21 Oct. 22-31 Nov. 1-15
(3) Work Flow of the Internet Option Public Campaign Preparation Address DB, Household list, Housing DB Pull & Push Strategy Create Internet Access Code Give Internet Access Code Intent to participate Thank You Note (e-mail) No Confirm Yes Electronic management Fill Out the Form Automatic editing Yes Re-contact those who haven’t completed the form No Finished? Yes • Send SMS to encourage • response DB
Access the Internet Begin the e-Census For foreigners (5) Accessing the Online Form EnterInternet Access Code
(6) Census Questionnaire for the Internet Cover Household Members Household Housing
(7) Input and Automatic Editing Range and logic checks Number of edit specifications : 88 for short form, 227 for long form
(8) Automated Response Management Automatically manage the input process and report the status Shown here these households have completed the form This household has not completed the form
(9) Ensure Security e-Census System Internet Router External Firewall WEB Firewall WAS Firewall DB Firewall Web Firewall External Network Internal Firewall Internet EXT WEB WEB WAS DB User Security Encoding SSL WEB Sever WAS Sever DB Sever WEB Sever User Security (Level 1) Network Security (Level 2) Web Service (Level 3) Server Security (Level 4) DB Security (Level 5) PC Security Web Service Security Security OS Encoding Data Access Control • PC keyboard • Web browser • No capture • Encoding SSL • WebFirewall • Controlling accesses to server • Encoding personal • information • Separating internal and external network • Control irregular • traffic
100% 100% Short Urban 49.6% 47.7% 100% 100% Long Rural 49.3% 40.4% (1) Overall Internet Uptake Rate : 47.9% (2) By questionnaire and region
(3) Characteristics of Internet Participants Daily internet response rate Beginning period 5.4%, Ending Period 5.0% (Thousand Households) 1,000 943 Beginning Period Ending Period 866 900 800 655 700 611 619 580 595 600 546 491 500 464 408 400 329 Weekend effect 300 258 209 172 194 200 146 115 101 100 56 0 10/19 10/20 10/21 10/22 10/23 10/24 10/25 10/26 10/27 10/28 10/29 10/30 10/31 11/1 11/2 11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 Preparation Extension Internet option period
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Response rate by the time of day 8 pm~10 pm(16.4%), 10 pm~midnight(12.6%), 10 am~noon(12.1%) (%) 16.4 12.6 12.0 12.1 11.6 11.0 10.7 7.9 3.6 1.3 0.6 0.3 0 - 2 2 - 4 4 - 6 6 - 8 8 - 10 10 - 12 12 - 14 14 - 16 16 - 18 18 - 20 20 - 22 22 - 24
Age group(Internet respondents) Age 59.8% 54.9% 48.2% 35.7% 35.3% 34.5% 20~29 30~39 50~59 ~19 40~49 60~
59.8% 46.3% 33.9% 33.4% Elementary Middle School High School College+ Education of household head (Internet respondents) Education
Size and type of household Size Type 64.4% 64.1% 62.1% 53.9% 39.2% 38.3% 31.3% Married couple w/ children Married couple w/o children 1-person hhs 2-person hhs 3-person hhs 4-person hhs 5+person hhs
Type of housing and occupancy Housing Occupancy 59.3% 51.7% 49.8% 47.9% 47.5% 47.1% 43.5% 37.3% 36.0% Detached dwelling Apartment Row house Apartment unit in a house Others Owned Tenement Rent Rent-free
(1) Coverage Error Post-enumeration Survey of the 2010 Census The Internet option shows lower omission and duplication rates
(2) Content Error Edit and Imputation The Internet responses show lower error rates <Error rates of Internet and interview option by major census items>
ANCOVA (Analysis of Covariance) analysis Controlling for age, education, sex, occupancy, and the type of living quarters, Internet responses show less errors.
Reduce personnel expenditure: by $14.2M - 10,000 fewer enumerators: $3.9M saved - Shorter enumeration period: 19 days 16 days $10.3M saved Save data processing cost: by $3.5M 1,774 fewer data capture operators : $3.5M saved (1) Prove to be a cost-effective tool for census
(2) Proven to be a convenient tool for surveys Reduce enumerator’s visits to households < Reasons for choosing the Internet option > 72.2% 11.7% 10.5% 2.5% Dislike visit by enumerators Incentive Safety Convenience (from add-on questionnaire on Internet option in 2010 Census)
Most participants were satisfied with the Internet option 70.9% (5.72M households) of the Internet participants responded. - Of them, 73.5% responded “Satisfied” (Unit: %)
(3) Prove to obtain more accurate responses The range and logic check functions of the Internet option worked effectively to secure accurate response. # of edit specifications : Long-form 227, Short-form 88 • # of mean error in short-form : 0.08 for Internet response vs1.83 for Interview • # of mean error in long-form : 1.27 for Internet response vs 3.56 for Interview Higher coverage according to the PES Respondents with higher education are more likely to choose the Internet option
Seven months later, 54.4% in the 2011 Census of Canada Canada (2011) (4) Success Factors As of 2010, the highest level in the world 0.5% in the 2005 Korean Census Singapore(15.0%, 2000; 38.0%, 2010), Canada(18.5%, 2006), Norway(9.9%, 2001), Australia(9.0%, 2006; 37%, 2011), New Zealand(7.0%, 2006), Switzerland(4.2%, 2000) 54.4% in the 2011 Census of Canada 47.9% 38.0% 37.0% 9.9% 8.0% 7.0% 4.2% New Zealand (2006) Switzerland (2000) Japan (2010) Norway (2001) Australia (2011) Singapore (2010) Korea (2010)
(4) Success Factors High Internet penetration rate for households : 81.6% as of 2010 User-friendly, well-designed questionnaire → convenient to respond Stability of e-Census system Competitive sprit for higher Internet participation among provinces
Push Internet Interview (4) Success Factors Strategy for enhancing Internet responses Pull Incentives • Hand out gifts by drawing • : LED TV(20), Notebook (80), Bicycle(240) … • Give students two hour credits for volunteer work Publicity Campaign - Campaign for e-Census Internet first