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U.S. Department of Commerce

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U.S. Department of Commerce

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  1. WISDOM[Weather In-Situ Deployment Optimization Method]Alexander E. MacDonald, NOAA Research DAA for LCIJustyna Nicinska, WISDOM Program ManagerLT Richard E. Hester Jr., NOAA/R/ERSL Associate Director Yuanfu Xie, NOAA/R/ESRL/GSDRussell B. Chadwick, NOAA/R/ESRL/GSD2010 COCOM SMO ConferenceMarch 25, 2010 U.S. Department of Commerce

  2. Outline - NOAA Organization, OAR, OMAO, NOAA Corps - WISDOM Concept - Operations 2008 and 2009 - Measuring Data Impact - Future Directions - Collaboration Ideas Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 2

  3. Marine Operations Centers Aircraft Operations Center Commissioned Personnel Center NOAA Dive Center Department of Commerce Office of Marine and Aviation Operations National Environmental Satellite, Data And Information Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Marine Fisheries Service Program Planning and Integration Oceanic and Atmospheric Research National Weather Service National Ocean Service NOAA Organization ~ 321 officers ~ 1400 personnel ~ $200M/year Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 3

  4. OMAO, NOAA Corps - History • 1807 – Jefferson’s Survey of the Coast, first science agency, to chart “every mile of navigable water” • First New York Harbor chart, automated tide gauges, “Red, Right, Return” buoyage system • Worked with attached Army & Naval officers • Civil War – non-uniformed surveyors in jeopardy of execution • 1917 - U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey • World War I and World War II - intelligence gatherers, surveying battlefields and landing sites, navigating troop transports, other technical roles • 1965-1970 – ESSA Corps under the Environmental Science Services Administration • 1970 NOAA and NOAA Corps – new missions Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO) 4

  5. SHRIKE COMMANDER OMAO, NOAA Corps - 13 Aircraft Minneapolis (2) JET PROP COMMANDER MISSIONS Charting and Mapping Fisheries Research Hurricane Research Environmental Assessment Monterey, CA (1) Manassas, VA (1) KING AIR 350ER TWIN OTTER (1) AOC Tampa, FL (10) P-3 (3) SHRIKE COMMANDER Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO) 5

  6. HI’IALAKAI OSCAR ELTON SETTE KA’IMIMOANA OMAO, NOAA Corps - 19 Ships,9 Home Ports KETCHIKAN, AK (1) KODIAK , AK (1) WOODS HOLE (1) DELAWARE II MOC-PACIFIC (4) RAINIER FAIRWEATHER MISSIONS DYSON Nautical Charting Fisheries Research Oceanographic Research Coastal Monitoring Ocean Exploration Ocean Climate Monitoring MOC-ATLANTIC (1) MILLER FREEMAN THOMAS JEFFERSON McARTHUR II SAN DIEGO (1) CHARLESTON (2) PASCAGOULA (3) NANCY FOSTER RONALD H. BROWN DAVID STARR JORDAN Temporary Homeports: GORDON GUNTER HONOLULU, HI HONOLULU (3) PISCES OKEANOS EXPLORER HENRY BIGELOW Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO) 6

  7. The Hurricane Track Problem Improving forecasts of the synoptic environment – the “steering flow” has been an important factor for increasing accuracy of track forecasts WISDOM An ensemble of NWP forecasts for the track of Hurricane Rita WISDOM vision is future 4-day forecasts as good or better than current 3-day forecasts Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 7

  8. The WISDOM solution • Click to edit Master text styles The WISDOM program aims to improve the hurricane track prediction in the 3 to 6 day period before landfall by providing wind and atmospheric data over poorly observed areas of the Atlantic basin. Flood the data poor region with enough balloons to improve forecasts by one day. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 8

  9. WISDOM Concept Super pressure non-elastic “tetroon” to drift 2-3 days at constant design altitudes (5K ft and 12K ft) Essential 100 g payload components are GPS receiver and RF transmitter Wind is calculated from position data 2008 payload balloon deployment training October 2008, Miami FL 2009 payload Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 9

  10. WISDOM Concept • ETC’s GPS RF Tag: proprietary, software configurable radio technology • Data transmitted real time via UHF FLEETSATCOM to ETC’s ground station • Then via internet to the MADIS servers at NOAA/ESRL. • Operational centers receive real time data via MADIS Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 10

  11. WISDOM Concept Lots of Partners - Philosophy of cooperative observers, data sharing, mutual benefits per established practices of national and international met service and WMO Interagency Sponsors NOAA R/ESRL, R/ARL, /NWS DHS S&T Directorate DOD Air Force Weather Agency DOD JCS J63 University Partners Northern Gulf Institute MSU University of Miami Texas A&M Corpus Christi Simeon Fongang Ecole Superieure Polytechnique Universite, Senegal International Meteorological Services Partners Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Bermuda Weather Service Private Sector Partners Near Space Corporation Engenium Technologies Raytheon Feds, private sector folks, university employees, grad students Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 11

  12. Annual Cycle - R&D, Production, Field Preps FEB – APR: scope the range of efforts for this year, initiate reimbursable funding process MAR: federal government gets a budget? MAY: interagency funds transfers completed MAY: contract let for balloon & payload production, deployment site liaison activities AUG: balloon deployment training SEP-OCT: active field test window (~30 days) NOV-DEC: stand down, data impacts, report out YEAR-ROUND: Program Development, OSSE modeling development, some engineering consults Balloon deployment training August 2009, Waveland MS. Lead by university consortium partner Northern Gulf Institute Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 12

  13. Active Test Season Operations (30 days SEP-OCT) • Daily watch routine: • throughout the period: deployment teams are “on call” • 1200Z: designated ESRL forecaster consults latest NWP guidance and ensemble spreads, issues daily “stand by” or “stand down” via email and web posting, automated trajectory forecasts are run • 1400Z: ESRL decision team consults forecaster, balloon trajectory forecasts, issues specific balloon deployment instructions, issues courtesy NOTAMS • 1600Z: deployment teams confirm receipt • and execute 7 day predicted trajectories from GFS (green) & FIM (red) model runs vs actual trajectory (yellow) for balloon W000139 launchedfrom Waveland MS. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 13

  14. Active Test Season Operations (30 days SEP-OCT) • Intermittent launch procedure: • - assemble 2+ person team at pre-loaded rental van • 2 hard suit cases • 2 helium tanks • Balloons • Payloads • voice communications w/ NOAA/ESRL • - drive to pre-designated deployment site • - turn on payloads for sat lock, Tx/Rx tests • - inflate balloon per instructions for designated • altitude, adjusted for local pressure • conduct Tx/Rx test • attach payload • release balloon • note low drift, tested in 20 mph winds Balloon deployment in MS. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 14

  15. 2008 Proof of Concept Testing WISDOM, with funding support from the DHS S&T, conducted a successful initial feasibility test during the 2008 hurricane season • 10 Prototypes launched from Hawaii in August • First Field Test w/ 19 balloons in October • Altitudes- 12,000 & 26,000 ft • Hurricane Paloma Launch - 57 balloons in November First test deployment trajectories as of 10/29/08. Balloons were launched 10/18/08. Big surprise – 10 day lifetimes Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 15

  16. 2008 Results • Balloons successful maintained constant design altitudes • Payloads successfully transmitted data to ESRL via DOD satellite • Proved successful acquisition of in-situ wind data • Determined feasible drifting balloon lifetimes WISDOM balloon trajectories deployed around Hurricane Paloma, as located on Nov 12, 2008. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 16

  17. Geographic and Altitude Track of WISDOM Balloon W000054, Launched November 7, 2008 as part of Hurricane Paloma campaign 2008 Results • A bigger surprise • 20-day survivor • potential national airspace concerns over Africa, Asia • demonstrated need for termination devices • Click to edit Master text styles Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 17

  18. 2009 Pilot Operational Testing With support from DHS S&T, NOAA/NWS and Air Force/AFWA, WISDOM tested a pilot operational cycle, and quantified data impact. • Launched approximately 90 Balloons • collected wind and pressure data • included flight termination capability • Maintained 100 g weight of payload • temp and relative humidity in testing mode • Courtesy NOTAMs filed • 6 operational forecast centers contacted regarding ingest of WISDOM data WISDOM 2009 Launch Sites - 10 total Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 18

  19. 2009 Results • Demonstrated international met services cooperation • NGI developed “Balloon Tracker” real-time visualization • Median flight 5-7 days, terminated past lat/lon boundary • Demonstrated effectiveness of programmable cut-down devices • WISDOM has demonstrated capability to target remote areas for in situ observations. • The WISDOM Balloon System can provide thousands of data points at low cost (estimated at less than a dollar per data point). Senegal Selected launches throughout 2009, colors based on launch location. Bermuda Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 19

  20. Nov 10, 2009 Tropical Storm (formerly hurricane) Ida location and numerous predicted locations; also WISDOM Balloon trajectories from releases originating in Corpus Christi TX. 2009 Results • Demonstrated proximity to hurricane / tropical storm (Ida) • Demonstrated operational forecast centers received real-time vis ESRL MADIS • ECMWF • UK Met Office • NHC • Demonstrated feasibility of field operations procedures Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 20

  21. Measuring Data Impact Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) • ECMWF 13 month free forecast is used for OSSE “nature run” • Run forecasts w/ and w/out selected observations, measure impact Offline, simulated experiments • Observing system is not yet built • “Synthetic obs” used to test impact on specific simulated hurricane cases • Data denial experiments, ensembles for robust statistics Online, hind-cast and forecast experiments • forecast impact of WISDOM data, after the fact • expected impact of WISDOM data prior to balloon releases • releases and obs targeted to times & places of highest forecast impact Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 21

  22. Measuring Data Impact • Note in-situ impact at least as significant as satellite data • Operational forecast centers ingest only 1-5% of satellite data • “traditional” RAOB is among the highest impact 300 mb U-wind analysis impact of various observing systems, July-August 2005. Per GSI assimilation system Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 22

  23. Analysis increment of wind speed from real time WISDOM STMAS analysis. Remnant of TS Ida is in northern MS. Measuring Data Impact Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 23

  24. Future Directions • Expand volume to reach threshold 100-200 per storm • Number of release sites available for use • Number of balloons & payloads, inventoried and released • Support staff, administrative and int’l support and partners • Technical Improvements • improve pressure, add temp and rel. humidity • additional balloon designs for altitudes 5K and 40K+ • 2 way comms with no ground station • Significant OSSE results • statistically significant quantified forecast impacts • observations targeting algorithm • Prototype and test Aeroclipper concept by SEP2010 • generic, disposable drop sonde type insertions from aircraft • for continuous readings in the eye over many days • pressure, air temperature, water temperature, wind speed and direction Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 24

  25. Collaboration Ideas Assistance in accessing release sites, and/or releasing balloons • West Africa region releases are critical for tracking Cape Verde storms and hurricane genesis • Caribbean region releases from Central and South America would be a major benefit for late season hurricanes typical for the region (note Ida example) • European release sites lower priority • Launch Operations are set up for easy equipment transfer and field deployments • Investigate USAID support as met services development capacity building activity Prototype and test low-level balloon for dust storm forecast application • Requires new balloon design and fabrication, HI test range • Design requirements might overlap with those for 5K ft balloon and/or aeroclipper • Requires one-time dedicated funding, order of magnitude ~ $100K ~ On the Horizon • Expansion into Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean • Expansion into routine ops for U.S. military met services worldwide • Transition to routine met service ops, WISDOM balloons as common as RAOBS Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 25

  26. WISDOM[Weather In-Situ Deployment Optimization Method]Points of Contact:http://wisdom.noaa.govJustyna.Nicinska@noaa.gov240-723-6895 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - WISDOM Program 26

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