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Michigan IRP Working Group Meeting

Michigan IRP Working Group Meeting. July 25, 2005. Agenda. Introduction (Proudfoot) Suggested Time Mgt. External Market Modeling (Adkins) 20 Minutes Energy Equilibrium Methodology Preliminary Results Michigan Model Representation (Gaskill) 30 Minutes 2006 System Summary

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Michigan IRP Working Group Meeting

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  1. Michigan IRP Working Group Meeting July 25, 2005

  2. Agenda • Introduction (Proudfoot) Suggested Time Mgt. • External Market Modeling (Adkins) 20 Minutes • Energy Equilibrium Methodology • Preliminary Results • Michigan Model Representation (Gaskill) 30 Minutes • 2006 System Summary • External Market Flows • Preliminary Expansion Plan (Hughes) 45 Minutes • Proview Methodology • Review Options • Bridge for study reserve margins • Preliminary Plan review • External Market influence • LOL Analysis for the UP (Konidena) 25 Minutes

  3. Upper Peninsula O*MW Ontario 350 MW 350 MW 0** MW METC TN 2850 MW ITC MAPP 350 MW 600 MW 3350 MW TN 3000 MW 2800 MW TN 3200 MW MAIN 2900 MW MAAC 3050 MW VACAR TVA External Market Modeling

  4. External Energy Modeling IMO NY/NE MISO MAPP MISO MAIN MI PJMCOM PJM E NON MISO MAPP PJM W MISO ECAR PJM S SPP SERC FRCC

  5. 2006 Price Curve for Michigan • On-Peak average price 43.15 $/Mwh (55.19 $/MWh in July) • Off-Peak average price is 31.38 $/MWh • Approximate escalation 2006 to 2024 is 5.5%

  6. Base Case Representation • Simplified External Market Model • Current Resource Mix • 2006 Base Case Results • Unit Capacity Factors • Economy Imports/Exports • Seasonal Summary Report • Current Load and Resources

  7. Upper Peninsula O*MW Ontario 350 MW 350 MW 0** MW METC TN 2850 MW ITC MAPP 350 MW 600 MW 3350 MW TN 3000 MW 2800 MW TN 3200 MW MAIN 2900 MW MAAC 3050 MW VACAR TVA Base Case Transfer Capability

  8. “Simplified” External Market Model Upper Peninsula O*MW Ontario 350 MW 0** MW METC Market Price West 2850 MW ITC 600 MW 3350 MW TN 3000 MW Market Price South

  9. Resource Mix by Region

  10. 2006 Unit Capacity Factors: METC

  11. 2006 Unit Capacity Factors: ITC

  12. 2006 Unit Capacity Factors: Upper Peninsula

  13. System Economy Transfer

  14. 2006 Seasonal Summary

  15. Existing Loads & Resources

  16. Expansion Plan

  17. Screening Curves

  18. PROVIEW Methodology • For each year of the optimization PROVIEW generates all possible combinations of alternatives • Each combination is tested against the constraints for that year and only those combinations that meet all the constraints are passed; these are the feasible states • Cumulative Capital and operations costs are calculated for each feasible state • Feasible states from year X are the starting points for generating new combinations for year X+1 • Repeat to end of Optimization Horizon

  19. PROVIEW Methodology • The State Space Problem • 9 Alternatives: • 3 available in 2007 (the CT’s) • 3 more in 2008 (the CC’s) • 3 more in 2011 (coal) • Resultant potential states: • Problem: only have a limited available State Space!

  20. Limiting the Solution State Space • Constrain the problem such that the resulting set of solution states will fit in the available State Space, but not unduly limit those solutions • Reserve Margins: Company and System Wide • Do not allow “extra” units not needed to meet Reserve Margin minimums • Split off the Upper Peninsula since it is not directly connected with the Lower Peninsula, AND it has a capacity surplus through 2018 (i.e. – greater that 15% reserves)

  21. Iterative Solution • “Fix” the solution for the UP: 1 CT in 2019 • Require that LP meet the “system” minimum reserve margin of 15% from 2014 on • Only CT’s and CC’s are available from 2007/2008 through 2010, so “lock in” a plan from 2007 through 2010: • 2007 – 2 CT’s in ITC • 2008 – 1 CT and 1 CC in ITC • 2009 – 1 CC in METC and 1 in ITC • 2010 – 1 CT in METC, 1 CT and 1 CC in ITC • Re-optimize through 2019 and temporarily “lock in” the best plan from this run • Next, optimize for 2020 to 2024 to find a “back fill” plan for capacity needs at the end of the time horizon, “lock in” this plan for 2020 to 2024 • Re-open the constraints for 2011 through 2019 and run full optimization for this period

  22. Preliminary Base Case Plan – Lower Peninsula PV (k$ 2005) = $ 58,754,232

  23. Preliminary Base Case Plan

  24. External Market influence

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