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Present and future of nuclear energy, main trends

Present and future of nuclear energy, main trends. The race for energy The nuclear today and to-morrow Jobs and competencies in support of a reactor power program. 9. 30. Other Renewables. Biomass. 8,5. 25. Nuclear. Gas. 8. 20. Oil. Coal. World Primary Energy Sources (Gtoe).

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Present and future of nuclear energy, main trends

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  1. Present and future of nuclear energy,main trends International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr 17/03/2009

  2. The race for energy • The nuclear today and to-morrow • Jobs and competencies in support of a reactor power program International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  3. 9 30 Other Renewables Biomass 8,5 25 Nuclear Gas 8 20 Oil Coal World Primary Energy Sources (Gtoe) World Population (Billions) 7,5 15 Population 7 10 6,5 5 6 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Huge call for energy to fuel the world economy growth • Present: before current crisis, fast growing countries, like China or India, did unbalance the energy resources market equilibrium • Future: better share of energy among countries and development of electricity use is of vital necessity, along with a growing population Electricity in Africa & Europe (Nasa) Source IEA : Energy to 2050 - Scenarios for a Sustainable Future International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  4. Deforestation CO2 emissions A new challenge: the global warming • Greenhouse gases emissions are affecting the climate, inducing catastrophic events (droughts, torrential rains, seas level increase) • Energy sector is a strong contributor to CO2 emissions and will be affected by the development of a world policy International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  5. FRANCE Hydraulics & nuclear, best ways to reduce CO2 emissions Hydraulics & nuclear have about equal share in the world electricity production, with about 15 % each. International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  6. Source IEA World electricity generation in 2006 International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  7. Solar & wind: for the future… • Still a very low contribution to the world energy balance: • Solar: 0.55 % of total energy consumption 0.02% of electricity generation • Wind: 0.7 % of electricity generation • But a fast growing development in some countries through a financial support and a guaranty on the return of investment Photovoltaic productionSource : AIE Windmill productionSource : American Windmill Association International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  8. Not one answer ! • Limits: • Fossil (coal, oil, gas): their development will be limited by carbon penalties ; the potential sequestration of CO2 emission could only be partial and costly • Hydraulics: potential sites are still existing in specific areas, allowing a factor of 12 to 15 (US Geological Survey), compared to the existing capacity, bur it’s not of generic use • Renewable (wind & solar) can only have a partial contribution to electricity production, for they only produce when the resource is available • Nuclear is a complex technology under control of international and national policies and cannot be quickly deployed • The past 50 years has seen several rankings in the cost of electricity generation between coal, gas & nuclear, mostly due to the market variations on the price of raw resources. The optimization of economical risks leads to diversify means of production. International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  9. Thousands of « quads » Source US National Academy of Science (Clathrates) Mineral world energy resources (Nota : 450 quads = about 1 year of world energy consumption) 1 quad = 1015 BTU International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  10. What is advisable today? An energy mix… Coal Take them all Solar Wind and make the electricity use more efficient ! Gas Nuclear Hydraulics International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr 17/03/2009

  11. The nuclear today and to-morrow International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr 17/03/2009

  12. Some specific characteristics of nuclear power • Long term engagement, which cannot afford a stop & go process • 15 years to be prepared • 60 years of operation • 20 years for complete dismantling • Public acceptance and political will • Drastic constraints in term of safety and quality calling for a specific culture more stringent than in current industry • Large investment at the very beginning (60% of the production cost is coming from the capital cost) • Financial engineering is determinant • Construction delays Cost of electricity generation International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  13. _1 Nuclear reactors in the world Today: 15% of the world electricity generation - 7% of primary energy use International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  14. Generation IV 1950 2090 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 Generation III : EPR, AP 1000, ABWR,… Nuclear generation timeframe Future Systems Advanced Reactors Current Reactors First Reactors Generation I : GG, 1st LWR Generation II : current LWR ? International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  15. Overview on the new generation of LWR • Areva: EPR, ATMEA (with MHI), SWR1000 • AtomEnergoProekt: VVER AES 2006 • Hitachi-General Electric: ABWR, ESBWR • Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power: APR 1400 • Mitsubishi: APWR,ATMEA (with Areva) • Toshiba – Westinghouse: AP1000 • … AP1000 sketch EPR construction in France Japanese ABWR International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  16. Main drivers for generation 3 To make use of more than 10 000 years of operating experience in LWR to improve the design • Safety: • Lessons from TMI: multi failures accidents and improved man-machine interface • Lessons from Chernobyl: prevention & mitigation of severe accidents • Improvement of protection against external hazards • Economy • Operability: • Doses reduction during maintenance • Load factor International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  17. Thousands of « quads » The challenge Source US National Academy of Science (Clathrates) (Nota : 350 quads = about 1 year of world energy consumption) Mineral world energy resources International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  18. Phenix reactor (France) The challenge • The technology for amplifying the energy out of uranium resources is well known: • implement in the reactor core a breeding process to change U238, fertile, into Pu239, fissile • and recycle the new material via reprocessing • Fast Breeder Reactors can do that and are doing it in various countries (India, France, Japan, Russia) • But the current technology has some drawbacks: • The safety has not reach the level of a Generation 3 LWR reactors • Their cost is higher than a LWR • Their design has not really considered non proliferation issues International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  19. New goals for sustainable nuclear energy • Break-through : • - Waste minimization • - Natural resources conservation • - Proliferation resistance • Continuous progress : • - Economically competitive • - Safe and reliable Argentina Systems marketable from 2040onwards USA Brazil United Kingdom Canada True potential for new applications Hydrogen, potable water, heat Russia EU China Membersof the Generation IVInternationalForum Switzerland France Japan South Africa Internationally shared R&D South Korea Research toward Generation 4 International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  20. What means developing a nuclear power program in term of jobs and competences ! International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr 17/03/2009

  21. Huge need for nuclear specialists at the world level • Why ? • The large growth in nuclear reactors was in the end of sixties – beginning of seventies and the peoples who was hired at this time are retiring now • The sudden increase of reactors demands during the last few years • Where? • Vendors, for developing new designs, for manufacturing and constructing reactors • Utilities, for preparing a program, making relevant choice, managing orders and constructions and for preparing the operation of the new reactors • Industry, for contributing to manufacturing, construction and maintenance & operation • Nuclear regulators, for the licensing of new reactors and control of construction operations • Public organizations, for preparing the countries: nuclear laws, public acceptance, wastes management, emergency situation preparedness… International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  22. The French example: nuclear employment needs • For Industry: mainly AREVA, EDF and GDF- Suez • 1 200 per year ( 2010) including 900 engineers • 1 100 per year (2011 ) including 650 engineers • For Research and Development : mainly CEA, IRSN, ASN • 250 per year ( 2010): 50 % engineers and PhD • 200 per year (2011 ): 50 % engineers and PhD • For Sub contractors • ~ 1 000 per year ( 2012), including ~ 500 engineers • ~ 700 per year (2013 ), including ~ 300 engineers • Total manpower needs: • 2 450 per year  2010 (1 500 engineers) • 2 300 per year > 2010 - <2012 (1 250 engineers) • 2 000 per year 2013  (950 engineers) International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  23. Basic needs for a country entering for the first time in nuclear power generation Figures are only indicative for one plant with 2 LWR of 1000 MWe International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr 17/03/2009

  24. Safety teams • Assessment of design, design changes, new procedures, specific action or work on the reactor, and their approval • Follow-up of reference laws, rules and binding documents in force on the plant • And, for the national nuclear regulator, decisions on penalties in case of non compliance National nuclear regulator (100 p) Utility management Site management Utility safety control team (10 p) Site safety control team (20 p) Operation team on site Inspection and control People in safety teams are engineers (MSc) or experts (PhD) International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  25. Management: 10 p (PhD & MSc) Operation: 150 p* Maintenance & repairs: 300 p* Logistics: 150 p* *about 10% with a Master degree or above Operation team on site International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  26. Education & training for nuclear energy (1/2) • Operation of nuclear reactors requests in general higher educated peoples than current industry: complexity & tractability • Some jobs are very nuclear specific and require an educational degree in nuclear sciences (mostly MSc & PhD), e.g. : • Core physics (neutronics and thermal hydraulics) • Nuclear fuel • Radioprotection • Nuclear materials • Nuclear safety & quality • Nuclear process International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  27. Education & training for nuclear energy (2/2) • Other jobs are similar to those in current industry, e.g. : • Civil engineering • Chemistry & environment • Software and signal treatment, Instrumentation & control • Electrical engineering, electro mechanics • Purchase and sales • Economy, finance • Project & risk management • But, in addition, dedicated courses (from 2 weeks to 2 months, according to the educational level and proximity) are needed to get nuclear understanding and culture • All organizations involved in nuclear activities should implement a tutoring process for the new comers International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  28. Conclusions • Egypt has a nuclear power program to be deployed during the next years • Nuclear is a very specific industry which requests specific education & training • Education is one of the key issues for the success of the program • Timing is essential and a clear view of the time distribution of the needs is essential, in term of number of peoples and their competencies • Education is not enough, training is also necessary and imply international cooperation International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  29. سيداتي آنساتي سادتيأشكركم على الانتباهأتمنى أزوركم مرة تانية International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr 17/03/2009

  30. Backup International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr 17/03/2009

  31. Economy International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

  32. Réacteur rapide au plomb Réacteur rapide à gaz Réacteur à sels fondus Réacteur à eau supercritique Réacteur rapide Sodium Réacteur à gaz, Très Haute Température Génération IV : les six concepts innovants retenus à fin 2002 International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - alain.vallee@cea.fr - 17/03/2009

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