Sociology SOCI 20182 Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

1. Sociology SOCI 20182Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union Instructors: Leonid Gavrilov, Natalia Gavrilova Lecture 2

2. Components of population growth in Russia, 1927-2006 Green- Natural increase; Pink – increase due to migration; Source: Demoscope Weekly

3. Publication on the history of Russian population before 1959 The most detailed publication on the topic is available in Russian: Andreev, E.M., Darsky, L.E., Kharkova, T.L. “Demographic History of Russia: 1927-1957”, Moscow: Informatika, 1998 (available online at Demoscope Weekly)

4. Recent events in Russia

5. First steps of Gorbachev • May 1985 - Anti-alcohol campaign Sales of alcohol were significantly decreased. The campaign was highly unpopular. But it had very strong demographic impact. • May 1986 - Campaign against ‘unearned’ income. Directed against unofficial small businesses

6. Effect of anti-alcohol campaign on life expectancy in Russia From 1984 to 1987 life expectancy of men increased from 61.7 to 64..8. Life expectancy of women increased from 73.0 to 74.3.

7. Disasters during the Gorbachev’s term • April 1986 - Chernobyl accident. Explosion at the nuclear plant. Affects mortality many years later. • August 1986 - Nakhimov cruise ship sank within minutes. Over 400 dead • June 1989 – two passenger trains exploded because of a leak in the gas pipeline. Over 500 dead, over 600 badly injured

8. Gorbachev and perestroyka • Gorbachev introduced sweeping political and economic reforms, bringing glasnost and perestroika, “openness” and “restructuring,” to the Soviet system. He established much warmer relations with the West, ended the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, and announced that the Warsaw Pact countries were free to pursue their own political agendas. In 1990 he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his contributions to ending the 45-year conflict between East and West.

9. March 1991 – Union-wide Referendum • 80% of population participated in referendum • 76.4% voted for the retention of the Soviet Union in a reformed form. (from 70% in Ukraine to 98% in Turkmenia) • The Baltics, Armenia, Georgia and Moldova boycotted the referendum.

10. August 1991 - Military Coup • On August 19, 1991, four senior officials acted to prevent the signing of the union treaty by forming the "State Committee on the State Emergency." The "Committee" put Gorbachev (vacationing in Crimea) under house arrest, reintroduced political censorship, and attempted to stop the perestroika. • This action did not receive population support and eventually failed.

11. The last days of the Soviet Union • Bread queue, Moscow (Dec 1991). Waiting for a bread kiosk to open in a western Moscow suburb. http://www.4020.net/eastbloc/

12. 1991 - Dissolution of the Soviet Union • Yeltsin's defiant actions during the coup—he barricaded himself in the Russian parliament and called for national strikes—resulted in Gorbachev's reinstatement. But from then on, power had effectively shifted from Gorbachev to Yeltsin and away from centralized power to greater power for the individual Soviet republics. • In the end of 1991 the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus made a decision to dissolve the Soviet Union at the separate meeting in Belovezhska puscha (Belarus). • Gorbachev resigned on Dec. 25, and Yeltsin, who had been the driving force behind the Soviet dissolution, became president of the newly established Russian Republic.

13. Yeltsin and ‘market reforms’ • At the start of 1992, Russia embarked on a series of dramatic economic reforms, including the freeing of prices on most goods, which led to an immediate downturn.

14. Soviet Economy • The economy of the Soviet Union was based on a system of state ownership and administrative planning. Gosplan (“State planning body”). • After 1930 all industrial property and virtually all land were collective. • Personal property was allowed but private property was abolished • It was a crime to hold and exchange foreign currency.

15. Gaydar Reforms of 1992 • Regulated retail prices became free (skyrocketed) • Currency exchange was allowed • Large and small businesses were allowed • Privatization of everything • Now these reforms are called “infamous” in the Russian mass media.

16. Impact of Disintegration of Central Planning Apparatus • Distribution system disappears – no “market” to replace it. • Non-cash economy becomes barter economy. • Dramatic decline of industrial sector, particularly military related industry

17. GDP Crisis

18. Effect of market reforms on life expectancy in Russia Life expectancy of men dropped from 63.8 years in 1990 to 57.4 years in 1994. Life expectancy of women dropped from 74.3 years to 71.1 years

19. October 1993 In September 1993, Yeltsin dissolved the legislative bodies. Tanks were used to shoot the Russian Parliament Bloodshed continued further in Chechnya

20. 1996 • Yeltsin won the president elections

21. 1998 - new economic crisis • On Aug. 28, 1998, amid the Russian stock market's free fall, the Russian government halted trading of the ruble on international currency markets. This financial crisis led to a long-term economic downturn and political upheaval.

22. 1998 crisis stopped demographic recovery

23. The Rise of Putin • Yeltsin nominated Vladimir Putin as a Prime Minister on Aug. 9, 1999, announcing that in addition to serving as prime minister, the former KGB agent was his choice as a successor in the 2000 presidential election.

24. Putin’s rule • On March 26, 2000, Putin won the presidential election with about 53% of the vote. Putin moved to centralize power in Moscow and attempted to limit the power and influence of both the regional governors and wealthy business leaders. Although Russia remained economically stagnant, Putin brought his nation a measure of political stability it never had under the unpredictable and erratic Yeltsin.

25. Medvedev – the New Russian President • In December, Putin endorsed Dmitri Medvedev in March 2008's presidential election. A Putin loyalist who is said to be moderate and pro-Western, Medvedev is a first deputy prime minister and the chairman of Gazprom, the country's oil monopoly. Medvedev said that if elected, he would appoint Putin as prime minister. Medvedev won the March presidential election with 67% of the vote.

26. Putin about populationDecember 2009 • “We can say with a high degree of confidence that Russia will register a growth in population for the first time since 1995.” • Putin said at an end-of-year government meeting broadcast on state television. • The prime minister said official statistics to be released later would bear this fact out and his spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, confirmed that Putin was referring to 2009 for the change in the trend.

27. Population of Russia after 2000 Source: Goskomstat Russia

28. Population changes (% per year) in Russia after 2000 Source: Goskomstat Russia

29. Components of population change Source: Goskomstat Russia

30. Changes in Russian fertility rates Source: Goskomstat Russia

31. Changes in life expectancy in Russia Source: Goskomstat Russia

32. What is Russia Now?

33. Economic Performance 1999-2006

34. Real GDP (1989=100)

35. Changes in GDP

36. Balance of Trade • 2000 - Surplus of $60 billion • 2001 – Surplus of $48 billion • 2002 – Surplus of $46 billion • 2003 – Surplus of $48.7 billion • 2006 – Surplus of 125.9 euro • 2007 – Surplus of 111.2 euro • 2008 – Surplus of 127.4 euro • Source: IMF

37. Dynamics of Russian Software Exports As for future, the country is projected to export software worth over US$ 15 Billion by 2012.

38. Unemployment and poverty rate

39. Real Wage Growth

40. Moscow City The Moscow City complex, where Renaissance Capital has their main offices. RenCap CEO Stephen Jennings predicts that Moscow will soon become one of the world's top five financial centers

41. Final Remarks on Russian History Russia is a thing of which The intellect cannot conceive Hers is no common yardstick You measure her uniquely: In Russia you only believe Fjodor Tyutchev, Russian poet “Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma” (Sir W. Churchill)