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The Implications of Increased Sounding Data in the Amazon Basin for Global Climate Models

The Implications of Increased Sounding Data in the Amazon Basin for Global Climate Models. Summary of field research in Leticia, Colombia, Feb. 18 th – 26 th , 2011. Outline. Assess feasibility of acquiring sounding data in the Amazon basin What is sounding data? Why do we need it?

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The Implications of Increased Sounding Data in the Amazon Basin for Global Climate Models

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  1. The Implications of Increased Sounding Data in the Amazon Basin for Global Climate Models Summary of field research in Leticia, Colombia, Feb. 18th – 26th, 2011

  2. Outline • Assess feasibility of acquiring sounding data in the Amazon basin • What is sounding data? • Why do we need it? • What are the constraints?

  3. Climate vs. Weather • Weather: recent or current conditions (ex. Cloud cover, precipitation) • Short term • Climate: typical weather for a given location • Long term • Includes weather extremes • Ex. Monthly rainfall, snowfall, normal temp extremes

  4. What is Sounding Data? • Real time data for atmospheric variables • Temperature • Pressure • Relative Humidity • Winds

  5. Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) • Included in Global Climate Models • AGCMs differ in spatial resolutions • Variables • temperature • pressure • humidity • winds • water and ice condensate in cloud

  6. Limited-Area Models/RegionalClimate Models (RCMs) Studying climatic processes and interactions on scales too fine for typical GCM resolutions. RCMs can give more intense events that will be smoothed in coarser-resolution GCMs.

  7. Environmental Lapse Rate • Environmental Lapse Rate • the decrease in temperature with altitude (-dT/dz or -dT/dp) • Atmospheric layers are defined by the change of sign of the lapse rate

  8. Data Collection Methods • Surface • Stations or ships • Radiosonde • Tether System • High – Altitude Balloon • Satellite • Microwave Radiation

  9. Radiosondes • Many varieties • Include instrument and ground station • Some are mobile • Expendable • Includes: • Temperature • Relative Humidity • Pressure • Wind

  10. Balloon Sounding Constraints Cost Mobility Accuracy of data

  11. Cost Constraints Vaisala AnaSonde

  12. Mobility Constraints

  13. Requirements of Climate Studies AnaSonde Accuracy • Temperature • ±2.5°C at ambient temperature • Relative Humidity • ±2% for 10°C<T<20°C • ±5% for T<10°C • Pressure • ±2%

  14. Current Findings: • Christy et al. 2010: What Do Observational Datasets Say about Modeled Tropospheric Temperature Trends since 1979? • Thorne et al. 2011: Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy • Preliminary Manaus analysis: Surface increase over last 10 years = .5 degrees C • Sounding to 10km increase over same period is only .15 degrees C

  15. 30 Year Sounding Analysis • Assign weight to each year at each altitude • Increments of 100m • At each altitude, divide the sum of weight by the sum of % available

  16. 30 Year Sounding Analysis • Find difference at each altitude • Find the average difference • Find the average of the monthly trends

  17. Monthly ELR Change

  18. Natal 12Z

  19. Natal 00Z

  20. Further Research • Accuracy and precision of sensors • Quantifying uncertainties in sounding data • Acquiring reliable and cost-effective sounding data for the Amazon rainforest • Increase in the amount of data

  21. Acknowledgements UM Office of Research and Sponsored Programs UM Excellence Fund: Office of the Provost and Vice President for Academic Affairs UM Department of Physics and Astronomy Montana Space Grant Consortium Entropika Anasphere Jennifer Fowler

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