Annex 6: Theory of Change Consultancy

1. Annex 6: Theory of Change Consultancy West Africa Program Quality Forum Monrovia, March 2010 Merry Chaos Consultants

2. Objectives • Analyze Liberian context and development policies • Define impact population and develop TOC for the CO • Refine FISP TOC • Advise CARE Liberia on next steps

3. Methodology • Used highly creative, emergent process with active participation of all members • Sub-groups for situational analysis* and country level TOC development • Plenary group on breakthroughs • Further sub-groups for pathways development and advice on how to proceed *Clearer risk analysis still required here

4. Poverty in Liberia • 48% of Liberians live in extreme poverty - below $0.50 a day • Poverty levels highest in fishing, crop farming(exclude rubber, palm oil etc), mining/quarrying etc • People perceived to be the poorest - Rural poor: farmers, hunters, female headed HH, returnees and disabled • Perception of what it means to be poor - urban/rural - Rural:- Lack of roads, market access, social structures/services, housing and food etc - Urban: Lack or limitation in the following:- market access, sanitation, high costs for medicine and education etc. • Reasons for extreme poverty - Inadequate government support, illiteracy/limited education, lack of farming equipment, lack of access to credit and large family

5. Governance Established and active • Governance Reform Commission in operation • General Auditing Commission (independent) • Anti corruption commission Gender issues prioritized by government through Ministry of Gender and Development. • Inheritance Act signed in 2005 – established rights for spouses of statutory and customary marriages • National secretariat of Women NGOs to coordinate work of NGOs in terms of capacity building etc • National Action Plan for GBV (2006-2009) • Fairness law addressing women in political parties • Women’s legislative caucus membership from lower and upper senate, • WONGOSOL – umbrella of women’s NGO with watch dog function • Women’s radio station – Liberian Women’s democracy radio Operationalization of laws necessary

6. Selection of Impact Groups Women Key role in economic activity (90% of women in rural areas engage in agriculture) - BUT majority of female labor unpaid and concentrated in informal sector, characterized by insecurity and low productivity • 60% of women of reproductive age illiterate compared to 30% of men • 56% of women not attended school • Rural areas: literacy rate is 26%, girls attendance rate secondary school 6% • 44% of women between 15-49 experienced sexual violence since the age of 15 Youth • 50% of population below 18 years • HIV prevalence in 15-24 Years 2.32% (national average 1.5%) • Homelessness • High unemployment • Low Education levels,Significant proportion out of school • Ex Combatants

7. Country Level Theory of Change Impact Population: Women, Youth and Adolescents in Chronically Food Insecure Households (48% of pop) (see previous slide for basis for defining sub-impact groups) Note: WHHs are not seen as being worse off than MHHs, but women are exploited more than men in terms of the livelihood activities and conditions they will accept, in order that they can support their children

8. Impact Goal Consolidated peace through a more productive, fairer and cohesive society, and ensured food security and quality of life for vulnerable women, youth and adolescents = (a+b) cd = (Social Cohesion + Access to Resources and Services) X Capacities X Governance

9. Domains of Change Social Cohesion Access to Resources and Services Inclusive community groups mobilized, networked and empowered to build social cohesion and leverage voice Specialized groups of women and youth engaged with decision makers and service providers at multiple levels to improve access to critical resources and services ( + ) Capacities Governance Appropriate technical and management capacities and systems of government institutions, civil society, private sector are strengthened to act upon poverty and social justice issues effectively Stronger platforms, mechanisms and voice have achieved transparent and accountable government institutions that ensure pro-poor policies and rights protection X

10. Breakthroughs 5 years • Development of a model that ensures budget transparency at County level in the allocation and expenditure of resources • Rural women’s interests are fully represented in national networks of women’s organizations (in partnership with GOL) • Women’s property rights (Inheritance Act) is enforced in rural areas • State extension service at County level is technically competent, functional and supportive of the livelihoods of the impact group • VSLA reaches critical mass in direct programs areas of CARE (Recommendation is 25% of population, with women 70% of members)

11. Breakthroughs 10-15 years • Active citizen groups act as watchdogs for rights protection and accountability in all Counties • Strong network of women’s groups active and part of decision making processes at local, county and national levels

13. Impact Population: Rural, Chronically Food Insecure WomenGoal: Consolidate Peace, Ensure Increase Food Security and Quality of Life Increase HH incomes Value Chains FFS VSLA Female representation in governance Build Technical Capacity Rights and accountable governance Health services Income Water Land Groups support social cohesion Gender norms/SAA Wat San Support Empower/TFT VSLA Equitable Access and Use of Resources Pro-poor Food Policy Nutrition Ag Productivity VSLA Social Cohesion Capacity Governance Access

14. Opportunities • 1st CD put CARE on the map – ‘Everybody likes CARE as different, new blood’ • TOC is supportive of GOL priorities (gender, poverty alleviation, food security), ie GOL has political will to advance these issues • # of strategic alliances already in place (INGOs, LNGOs, GOL) • CI willing to support Liberia as a new CO

15. Limitations • Many similar NGOs in Liberia – challenge to establish distinctiveness • Lack of UNR • As a new CO staffing is lean; have limited capacity to pilot new approaches; need support in being able to learn from appropriate good practices elsewhere

16. Next Steps • Conduct mapping exercise of organizations working in areas of gender and youth • Make partnership strategy explicit and align with TOC (bring on board complimentary expertise) • Develop fundraising strategy focused on areas of distinctiveness, competitiveness and attractiveness, leveraging elements of TOC (gender, food security and livelihoods, program approach) • Identify specific forms of expertise in the PQF and establish appropriate relationships • Generate greater CI interest in providing support expertise and funding • Trade off between deepening our work in two locations and expanding nationally

17. Exercise for Groups CARE Liberia is a new CO. It only has 3 funded projects and it is still a new kid on the block. How does it use its emerging program framework to: • Establish a reputation, identity and recognized niche for itself in Liberia, and • Establish appropriate relationships with other organizations, and combine working at local level in two counties with being able to work nationally and influence approaches in all counties • Secure funding

18. Group A: Identity Niche: Food security for women, through empowerment and working with GOL Reputation: Empowerment, clear agenda, transparency Identity (how): Educating donors; putting things into practice; communicating with impact

19. Group B: Relationships • Define a Partnership (Relationship) Strategy • Type of relationships. • Strategic alliances incl MOUs with govt (local, central), national CSOs, INGOs etc – agree on areas such as shared vision, common program themes, pooling of resources, joint supervision… • Implementing organizations (subgrantees) CBOs, NGOs.. Relationships should be participative, capacity building, and involve shared results, visibility ______________ • In establishing criteria for partnership (strategic and operational). Consider: geography; complementarity (horizontal and vertical); linking practice to practice, but also practice to policy; roles • Expose yourself and promote dialogue • Seek opportunities to learn from new approaches to working in partnership and with social movements in other COs.

20. Group B (cont) • Local action for national impact Working with partners (strategic/ implementers) Define advocacy/ capitalization strategy • Agreements with local governments in zones of intervention • Participation in fora for exchange of ideas, results, good practices etc • Participate in fora for priority planning (local, district, county, national etc) • Define a communication strategy for CO and allies results, plans etc

21. Group C: Fundraising Be proactive not reactive • Influence and build relationships – talk to donors; map them, find their interests, meet them with our program • Further define program • Prepare off the shelf: - analysis - concepts by pathway - linked emergency concepts • Seek support from SL team - human interest stories (ER) - newsletters - local media • Discuss with key private sector players