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Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Services, Products, Partnerships, Potential

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Services, Products, Partnerships, Potential. for the PRIDE Alaska Coastal Climatologies Wind/Wave Workshop Jim Laver August 2-3, 2005 www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. CPC Contribution to Climate Services.

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Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Services, Products, Partnerships, Potential

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  1. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Services, Products, Partnerships, Potential for the PRIDE Alaska Coastal Climatologies Wind/Wave Workshop Jim Laver August 2-3, 2005 www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

  2. CPC Contribution to Climate Services • Mission: Assess and Predict short-term climate variability “short-term” = next week, month, season(s), out to 1-year; and consider the longer term context • Responsibilities & Scope: Deliver operational climate “nowcasts” and predictions Make them consistent - globally, nationally and regionally Provide an historical context – with help from NCDC Improve them! • Vision: Climate services as reliable and applicable as weather services

  3. Climate Products • Global Environmental Monitoring: Where: atmosphere, oceans, land, ice What: temperature, precipitation, circulation, drought, SST Alaska/Arctic parameters? • Climate Outlooks: Where: U. S., U. S. Interests abroad, oceans What: temperature & precipitation anomalies hazards, drought, hurricane season, El Niño/La Niña Probabilities of extremes? Storminess? Others for AK?

  4. First Order, Cooperative, Automated,…

  5. CPC is interested in providing real-time monitoring products • A historical climatology is required for proper historical context • Focus has been on Temperature & Precipitation; Other Parameters??

  6. Products – via CPC Home Page Includes: AO, NAO, PDO, AAO

  7. U. S. Hazards Assessment – Dec 2003

  8. Example: explanation of 8-14 day forecast map. N 50% chance A, 33% chance N, 17% chance B 33.3% chance A, 33.3% chance N, 33.3% chance B A N N 27% chance A, 33% chance N, 40% chance B N Week2 Outlook

  9. CAS CDC OCN+skill mask OFFICIAL Scripps OCN Seasonal Outlook Tools IRI ECCA CFS

  10. Improving Services & Products Through Partnerships • National Weather Service: NCEP centers, regional offices, local offices (WFOs), river forecast centers • NOAA: research labs (e.g., Boulder, Princeton, Miami), applied research funding (Office of Global Programs) • Inter-Agency: USDA (drought, global crops), FEMA (hazards), NASA (outlooks; ozone), EPA & DoD (ultraviolet forecasts), USAID (humanitarian support), DoE (degree days) • Academic & International: universities, international desks, bi-lateral agreements, World Meteorological Organization, Pacific partners, International Research Institute (Columbia U.)

  11. Potential:Areas of Common Interest? • NOAA’s Climate Test Bed – accelerate improvements in climate predictions – subseasonal, seasonal, interannual, decadal trends? • Multi-model dynamical ensembles • Reanalysis  Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System, Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere, Regional, Arctic,… • Assessment of economical benefits of long-range forecasts • Global ocean monitoring and modeling (GODAS) • Describe current state of the climate better - “Nowcasting” • New product possibilities ?? - forecasts of opportunity, extremes, Week3, Week4, Winds, Waves, Storms

  12. Reprocessing and Reanalysis are Essential Given the continuing improvement in our understanding of climate observations and the need for long time series, reprocessing is a hallmark of every climate observing system. Europe, Japan and the US have ongoing efforts, but risks and limitations abound. National/international coordination is essential to a successful program GEOSS must have an OACS! Workshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado

  13. The Domain: Regional Reanalysis Domain How does it complement the proposed Arctic Reanalysis?

  14. The End(extra slides follow)

  15. CPC and NOAA’s Goals CPC

  16. OUTCOMES • A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions • Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their plans and decisions Observations & Analysis Climate Forcing Predictions & Projections (includes CPC) Climate & Ecosystems Regional Decision Support NOAA’s Climate Program Matrix and Relationship to 2005 NOAA Strategic Plan Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond Programs

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