Cryosphere hazards from the perspective of a State Agency

1. Cryosphere hazards from the perspective of a State Agency Gabriel Wolken Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys 3354 College Road, Fairbanks, Alaska 99709-3707 Ph: 907.451.5018 Fax: 907.451.5050 email: gabriel.wolken@alaska.gov web: www.dggs.alaska.gov

2. Alaska DGGS – Hazards Programs • Climate Change Hazards (CCHP) • Geohazards Evaluation and Geologic Mapping for Coastal Communities • Hazards assessment and evaluation • Information management and dissemination • Promoting Public awareness Flooded permafrost cellar near the Wulik River, NW Alaska Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards

3. Guide to Geologic Hazards in Alaska • Glossary of Hazards • Hazard Types • Published Maps and Reports • Found at: • http://www.dggs.dnr.state.ak.us/ • Engineering geology>Guide to geologic hazards in Alaska Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards

4. State of Alaska Statute AS 41.08.020 Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys “...determine the … potential geologic hazards to buildings, roads, bridges, and other installations and structures.” Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards

5. What is a hazard? Natural Hazards Natural Processes • Hazard: an exposure to a natural geophysical process that adversely affects people, property, or infrastructure • Risk: the likelihood of the hazard x its adverse consequence Photo: N. Kinsman Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards

6. Alaska and the Cryosphere Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards

7. Alaska and the Cryosphere R. Reger Flooded permafrost cellar near the Wulik River, NW Alaska Thermokarst and bike path in Fairbanks, AK A. Gal P. Carter Avalanche on the Richardson Highway Ice Bridge across the Chena River, Fairbanks, AK Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards

8. Alaska and the Cryosphere • Flooding and erosion affects 184 out of 213, or 86 percent, of Alaska Native villages to some extent (US Government Accounting Office Report GAO-04-895T). • 71 percent of Alaska coastal communities, or 80 out of 112, sit at or below 10 meters elevation. Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards

9. Changes in Climate • Changes in climate can modify or intensify natural processes that lead to hazards Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards

10. Changes in Coastal Processes • Decreased sea ice extent and duration • Reduced shore protection • Increased fetch • Storm surges • Increased sea surface temperatures • Thermal abrasion • Increased sediment load • Accelerated thermokarst development • Increased lagoon and tidal prism volumes • Erosion • Sea level rise • Inundation of low-lying areas Kivalina Photo: J Mitchell Photo: J Mitchell Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards

11. Changes in Alaska’s Northern Region • Coastal erosion may have doubled since 1955 • Inland expansion of channel networks and increased river bank erosion have been attributed to warming • Lakes, ponds, and wetlands appear to be more dynamic, growing in some areas, shrinking in others, and changing distribution across lowland regions • Permafrost degradation on the Arctic coastal plain suggests 10-30 percent of lowland and tundra landscapes may be affected by even modest warming • Slope instability in headwater regions is increasing and leading to increased sedimentation rates Photo: USGS Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards

12. Changes in Alaska’s Glaciers • During the 20th and 21st centuries, most land-terminating glaciers in Alaska retreated extensively from their Little Ice Age maximum extent • Since 1980, nearly all glaciers in Alaska have been in a state of retreat • Contributing significantly to sea level rise • Changes in water availability and sedimentation rates will impact: • Water supplies • Water quality • Hydroelectric power generation potential • Flood hazards • Freshwater, estuarine and coastal habitats Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards

13. Cryosphere Hazards and Alaska • Changes in climate can modify or intensify natural processes that lead to hazards • Natural hazards in the Cryospherecan cause casualties and severely damage property and infrastructure • Numerous threatened communities in Alaska are currently involved in mitigation or adaptation efforts in response to Cryosphere hazards • Informed community decision making requires accurate and up-to-date baseline geoscience data Shishmaref Photo: AK DCRA Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards

14. Cryosphere Hazards Investigations • Establish a collection of baseline data • Hazards assessment and evaluation • Existence, changes, and potential • Promote public awareness of hazards and educate the public about specific hazards in their area • Provide critical information to decision-makers for use in community planning and risk management • builds capacity at all levels • helps communities mitigate or adapt to the impacts of hazards Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards

15. Knowledge Gaps and Issues of Concern • It’s Alaska… • Baseline data are sparse, limed duration, or nonexistent • Access to data is challenging • Hazard assessments are not performed regularly or routinely • Limited financial resources • Causal links are equivocal • Lack of communication among scientistsand few collaborations • Lack of anefficient method for coordinating activities, prioritizing Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards